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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Spatial Regression Models Estimation for the poverty Rates In the districts of Iraq in 2012
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The research took the spatial autoregressive model: SAR and spatial error model: SEM  in an attempt to provide practical evidence that proves the importance of spatial analysis, with a particular focus on the importance of using regression models spatial and that includes all of the spatial dependence, which we can test its presence or not by using Moran test. While ignoring this dependency may lead to the loss of important information about the phenomenon under research is reflected in the end on the strength of the statistical estimation power, as these models are the link between the usual regression models with time-series models. The spatial analysis had been applied to Iraq Household Socio-Economic Survey: IHS

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Gene Reports
Hepatitis B virus genotypes among chronic hepatitis B patients from Baghdad, Iraq and their impact on liver function
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Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a significant global health problem. Populations of different ethnicities show great heterogeneity in HBV genotype frequency distributions. A cross-sectional study was conducted during June–October 2018 to determine frequency of HBV genotypes among chronic HBV patients from Baghdad, Iraq. The method of detection was nested polymerase chain reaction system. Further, the study assessed the impact of HBV genotypes on serum level of liver-function tests: total serum bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, alanine aminotransferase and aspartate aminotransferase. Eighty chronic HBV patients were enrolled in the study. Six HBV genotypes were identified (A, B, C, D, E and F). The most frequently encountered genotypes

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 15 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Machine Learning Techniques for Analyzing Survival Data of Breast Cancer Patients in Baghdad
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The Machine learning methods, which are one of the most important branches of promising artificial intelligence, have great importance in all sciences such as engineering, medical, and also recently involved widely in statistical sciences and its various branches, including analysis of survival, as it can be considered a new branch used to estimate the survival and was parallel with parametric, nonparametric and semi-parametric methods that are widely used to estimate survival in statistical research. In this paper, the estimate of survival based on medical images of patients with breast cancer who receive their treatment in Iraqi hospitals was discussed. Three algorithms for feature extraction were explained: The first principal compone

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 30 2019
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Mother in Contemporary Islamic Poetry _ An artistic study in models of contemporary Islamic poetry
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This research deals with a part of our heritage and Arab culture, which is the poetry of contemporary Islamic poets, especially the poetry that was said in the mother in contemporary Islamic poetry, when extrapolating the offices of some contemporary Islamic poets found a clear presence of the mother, and during the search for the subject or its I found that the subject did not receive research and study, although the bureaus of contemporary Islamic poets included in it a huge amount of verses in which they stood at the mother Pharthua, and expressed their feelings and emotions towards them, and accordingly this research tagged (mother in contemporary Islamic poetry _ Dr Artistic models in models of contemporary Islamic poetry) to stand

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Determination of solar window for Baghdad city using pv system program
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Been using a pv system program to determine the solar window for Baghdad city . the solar window for any location can be determine by deviating left and right from the geographical south as well as deviation according to the amount of tilt angle with the horizon for fixed panel so that will not change the average of solar radiation incident over the whole year and this lead to help in the process of installation of fixed solar panel without any effect on annual output .the range of solar window for Baghdad city between two angles ( -8 - +8 ) degrees left to right of the geographical south and tilt angle that allowed for the horizon range between angles (21- 30) degrees so that the amount of solar radiation that falling on the solar pan

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Basement Kind Effects on Air Temperature of a Solar Chimney in Baghdad - Iraq Weather
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A solar updraft tower power plant (solar tower) is a solar thermal power plant that utilizes a combination of solar

air collector and central updraft tube to generate an induced convective flow which drives pressure staged turbines to generate electricity.

 

 This paper presents practical results of a prototype of a solar chimney with thermal mass, where the glass surface is replaced by transparence plastic cover. The study focused on chimney's basements kind effect on collected air temperatures. Three basements were used: concrete, black concrete and black pebbles basements. The study was conducted in Baghdad from August to November 2009.

The results show that the best chimney efficiency attaine

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Modern Sport
Effect of constant str ect of constant stretching ex etching exercises in impr cises in improving the elasticity ving the elasticity of cervical v vical vertebrae for patients with cer ae for patients with cervical spondylitis’ vical spondylitis’s for ages (40-50) years
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Practicing physical activity is a very necessary requirement for all segments of society. . Many individuals, regardless of environment, age and gender, are exposed to joint diseases and injuries and pain in the neck for many and varied reasons. Treatment methods and techniques vary according to the severity of the injury, as therapeutic exercises, including stretching exercises, specifically fixed ones, are one of the ways to eliminate cases of muscle and joint dysfunction. Many individuals, regardless of environment, age and gender, are exposed to joint diseases and injuries and pain in the neck for many and varied reasons. Treatment methods and techniques differ according to the severity of the injury, as therapeutic exercises, including

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Water Resource And Protection
Seasonal Variations of Some Ecological Parameters in Tigris River Water at Baghdad Region, Iraq
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 03 2017
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Determination of the Level of some Adipokines in Hypo-and Hyperthyroids Patients in Baghdad City
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Determination of the level of adipokines (obestatin, vaspin, tumor necrosis factor-? and interleukin-6)in hypo-and hyperthyroid patients from Educational Baghdad Hospital in Baghdad City was investigated. Fifty patients with hypothyroidism and Fifty patients with hyperthyroidism were selected. A control group of thirty euthyroid persons was included. Blood was collected by vein puncture and serum was separated and stored at –20C. Adipokines (obestatin, vaspin, tumor necrosis factor-? and interleukin-6) were estimated using ELISA method. The findings show a significant (p<0.05) increase in obestatin level in hypothyroid patients, while there is no significant difference in hyperthyroid patientsas compared with the euthyroid subjects.

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Scheme for Generating True Random Numbers using Electro-mechanical Switches
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This paper proposes a novel method for generating True Random Numbers (TRNs) using electromechanical switches. The proposed generator is implemented using an FPGA board. The system utilizes the phenomenon of electromechanical switch bounce to produce a randomly fluctuated signal that is used to trigger a counter to generate a binary random number. Compared to other true random number generation methods, the proposed approach features a high degree of randomness using a simple circuit that can be easily built using off-the-shelf components. The proposed system is implemented using a commercial relay circuit connected to an FPGA board that is used to process and record the generated random sequences. Applying statistical testing on th

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