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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 16 2020
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
STUDY OF TINEA PEDIS IN DIABETIC VERSUS NON-DIABETIC PATIENTS
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Background : The aim of this work is to study the clinical features and causative fungi of tinea pedis in diabetic and non-diabetic patients. Result : Tinea pedis was estimated to be the second most common skin disease in the United States, after acne. Up to 15% of the U.S., population may have tinea pedis. Across Europe and East Asia, prevalence rates reach 20 %. Methods: The Complete history taking regarding: age, sex, occupation, residency, history of diabetes and diabetic profile (fasting blood sugar and post prandial).and Clinical examination of the feet Aim of the study : The aim of this work was to study the clinical features and causative fungi of tinea pedis in diabetic and non-diabetic patients Conclusion : Tinea pedis is more

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 12 2021
Journal Name
Neuroquantology
Biochemical Aspects in Sera of Iraqi Patients with Trigeminal Neuralgia
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Trigeminal Neuralgia (TN) is one of the most commonly painful cranial neuralgia characterized by paroxysmal attacks as short lasting facial pain along the trigeminal nerve branches. The aim of the present study is to innovate a biochemical relationship between (melatonin, GALNT12 and Zn) and TN and also to examine the biochemical action of tegretol (carbamazepine) as a treatment on the above biochemical parameters. Blood samples were collected from fifty four (54) trigeminal neuralgia patients diagnosed by magnetic radiation image (MRI). Patients were classified into four groups: G3 (40- 70) years composed of (12) diagnosed male (without treatment), G4 (48- 75) years composed of (12) diagnosed female (without treatment), G5 (34- 76)

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Impact of functional disability on lifestyle for patients with arthritis
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A descriptive study, which was using an assessment approach, was conducted for the
determination of the impact of rheumatoid arthritis and osteoarthritis patient’s functional disability
upon their life style. The study was carried out at the Rheumatology and outpatients clinics of ALKarama
Teaching Hospital, Baghdad Teaching Hospital AL-Kindey Teaching Hospital and Specialized
surgeries Teaching Hospital for the period of October 15th 2003 through May 13th 2004 in Baghdad
City. A purposive (non-probability) sample of (245) arthritis patients which was comprised (111)
rheumatoid arthritis patients and (134) osteoarthritis patients, was selected out of the early stated
settings. The questionnaire was comprised of

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 09 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Characterization of Gram-Positive bacteria in Gallstone among Iraqi Patients
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Background: Gallstone disease (GSD) is a significant global health burden with variable prevalence influenced by metabolic, genetic, and infectious factors. Increasing evidence suggests that Gram-positive bacteria, particularly Staphylococcus aureus and Enterococcus species, contribute to gallstone pathogenesis through enzymatic activity and biofilm formation. Objectives: To characterize Gram-positive bacteria within gallstones from Iraqi patients, evaluate their biofilm-forming capacity, and analyze the relationship between bacterial colonization, gallstone type, and cholesterol levels. Methods: A total of 100 gallstones were obtained from patients undergoing elective cholecystectomy between October 2024 and March 2025. Stones were

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Transplantation Proceedings
Outcomes of SGLT2 Inhibitors Use in Diabetic Renal Transplant Patients
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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Assessment of Serum Metalloendopeptidase level in Patients with Double Diabetes
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Background: Double diabetes is the term used to describe situations in which a patient exhibits characteristics that are a combination of type 1 and type 2 Diabetes Mellitus. Metalloendopeptidase or Neprilysin is membrane-bound metallopeptidase. It has a wide range of physiological function and a variety of substrates. It has a significant impact on the proteolytic functions of the kidney, cardiovascular health, immunological response, cell proliferation, and fetal development. It also has a preventative effect on the onset of type 2 diabetes, obesity, and cancer.

Objective: The study aims to assess the level of MEP in patients wi

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 14 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Detection of Granulocyte Chemotactic Protein 2 in Serum of Periodontitis Patients
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Background: Chronic periodontitis defined as “an infectious inflammatory disease within supporting tissues of the teeth, progressive attachment loss and bone loss". Aggressive periodontitis is rare which in most cases manifest themselves clinically during youth. It characterized by rapid rate of disease progression .Pro-inflammatory chemokines organized inflammatory responses. Granulocyte chemotactic protein 2 is involved in neutrophil gathering and movement. The purpose of the study is to detect serum of Granulocyte Chemotactic Protein 2 and correlate to periodontal condition in patients with chronic periodontitis, Aggressive periodontitis and Healthy Control subjects and measurement the count of neutrophils for the studied groups. S

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 09 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Assessment of the Nurse’s Role Regarding drug Administration of Cardiovascular Patients
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Objectives: The aim of the study was, to assess the nurse's role regarding cardiovascular drug
administration in Erbil city.
Methodology: A descriptive survey was conducted in Hawler teaching and Rizgari teaching Hospitals. The
number of samples is 50 nurses; the period of the study was started from 15th of November 2008 up to
the end of March 2009. A questionnaire was developed by investigators based on extensive review of
available studies and literatures. Data were collected through application of observational check list
consist of two part, part one was demographic sheet and part two about nurse’s responsibility regarding
medication administration which include (before, during, after drug administration). Data

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 30 2014
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Efficacy of atorvastatin in treatment of Iraqi obese patients with hypercholesterolemia
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ABSTRACTBackground: dyslipidemia plays a crucial rule in the development of cardiovascular disease, which has become the leading cause of death in most developed countries as well as in developing countries (1). The effects of reducing low density lipoprotein – C (LDL-C) concentrations on the prevention of cardiovascular events and stroke have been well reported in many clinical trials.Objectives: Evidence supports the use of statins for lipid modifications in the primary prevention of coronary artery disease, morbidity and mortality. This study aims to determine the effectiveness of atorvastatin in treating dyslipidemia in Iraqi obese patients.Methods: 200 overweight and obese patients with hypercholesterolemia, according to NCEP ATP

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 30 2020
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Role of Loop Ileostomy in the Management of Ulcerative Colitis Patients
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Background: Ulcerative colitis is a chronic inflammatory condition characterized by relapsing and remitting episodes of inflammation limited to the mucosal layer of the colon.Loop ileostomy might be helpful in the management of the disease.

Objective: To evaluate the role of loop ileostomy in the management of ulcerative colitis.

 Methods: Between Januarys 2008 and January 2018, patients with fulminant ulcerative colitis resistant to medical therapy had been referred to our surgical unit and were included in our study. Assessment of the patients’ medical status (serum electrolytes, total serum protein, complete blood count, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, general stool exam,and abdominal ultrasound

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