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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 07 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Vertical analysis of patients with late lower arch crowding
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Background: Because of many factors play a role in the developing of late lower arch crowding, therefore the objective of the current study is to do vertical analysis for subjects with late lower dental arch crowding. The conducted study is the first attempt to do vertical analysis for Iraqi subjects with late lower arch crowding to see if there is a vertical discrepancy in such patients. Subjects and methods: Eighty subjects were selected according to certain inclusion criteria from patients attending the Orthodontic Department in the College of Dentistry, Baghdad University, patients ranged between 18-25 years old. The 80 patients were divided into two groups (crowding and normal), 40 patients each (20 males and 20 females). A study cast

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 06 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Determination of Contributing Risk Factors to Adult Nephrolithiasis Patients
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Objectives: To determine the contributing risk factors to adult nephrolithiasis patients.
Methodology: A descriptive study was conducted to determine the contributing risk factors to
Adults nephrolithiasis starting from December 2007 to September 2008. A purposive "nonprobability"
sample of (100) patients with nephrolithiasis was selected of those who were
admitted to the hospitals, attending the Urology Consultation Clinic and Extracorporeal Shock
Wave Lithotripsy Department. The study instrument consists of two parts. The first part is
related to the patients' demographic variables and the second part is constructed to serve the
purpose of the study. The total number of items in the questionnaire was (85) ones.

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 30 2021
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Otolarygological Manifestations of Patients with Confirmed Covid-19 Infection
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Background: the coronavirus leads to upper respiratory tract-associated manifestations like nasal congestion, sore throat, and smell disorder

Objectives: To reveal the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on otolaryngology symptoms using our daily medical practice.

Subject and Methods: A cross-sectional study that was carried on in the isolation wards at Al-Kindy and Al-Nu’man Teaching Hospitals during three months from the 1st of Jun. till the end of Aug. 2020. It included 1270 patients who were diagnosed with COVID-19 infection seen in the ENT consultation clinic and admitted to the isolation wards.

Results: Otolaryngological manifestations were shown

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 09 2025
Journal Name
Romanian Medical Journal
Urodynamic finding of patients with non-monosymptomatic nocturnal enuresis
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Background. Nocturnal enuresis (NE), defined as intermittent involuntary urine leakage during sleep, affects approximately 16% of children at age 5 and 10% at age 7, with prevalence declining with age. Aim. To evaluate the urodynamic features of patients with non-monosymptomatic nocturnal enuresis (NMNE). Methods. This cross-sectional study was conducted from June 2015 to September 2020 in a surgical subspecialty hospital within a major medical city complex, including 237 patients. Eligible patients were older than seven years, diagnosed with NMNE, and had refractory enuresis, defined as persistent symptoms despite at least six months of continuous medical treatment. All patients underwent a detailed history, bladder diary review, c

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2015
Journal Name
Iosr Journal Of Dental And Medical Sciences (iosr-jdms)
Diabetic Cheiroarthropathy in a Sample of Iraqi Diabetic Patients
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Background: Diabetic cheiroarthropathy is a term derived from the Greek word “cheiros” meaning “of the hand”, It is characterized by stiff hands with distinctively thick, tight, and waxy skin, especially on the dorsal aspects of the hands. It is part of long term complication of diabetes and many suggest it is associated with microvascular complication. The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence of diabetic cheiroarthropathy in Iraqi patients with diabetes, and to study its association with diabetic retinopathy and glycemic control. Material and Methods: A cross-sectional study in which 110 diabetic patients and 110 non-diabetic healthy people who accepted to take part in the study were ran

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 12 2019
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
The Role of Metformin in patients with Primary Hypothyroidism
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Background: Insulin resistance is present in 50% or more of patients with primary hypothyroidism. Metformin can decrease TSH levels in these patients by a complex matter, this can be of great help in clinical practice.

Objective: This study was designed to evaluate the effect of metformin in reducing TSH levels in patients with primary hypothyroidism.

Methods: Hundred patients with primary hypothyroidism, 82 females, 18 males were included in this study, everyone was followed up for two months after adding metformin 850 mg twice daily in addition to thyroxin.

Results: 36 patients (36%) have a normal baseline TSH and no change after 2 months, 64 pa

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Quality of Life Assessment for Patients with Colorectal Cancer
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Abstract A descriptive study to assess the quality of life (QOL) for patients with colorectal cancer. The study was conducted from Baghdad Teaching Hospital, Al-Yarmouk Teaching Hospital and Radiation Hospital and Nuclear medicine for the period from 1st July/2004 to 1st September/2004. The sample selected by purposive random of (50) patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer and all of them who were under chemotherapy treatment. A questionnaire was prepared for the purpose of the study and comprised of three parts including: 1- Socio-demographical characteristics. 2- Clinical characteristics. 3- and QOL

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 07 2020
Journal Name
Plant Archives
Seroprevalence of Human Cytomegalovirus in Iraqi Breast Cancer Patients
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The current study was conducted in the period extending from November 2018 to October 2019 and designed as a case-control study and aimed to assess the seroprevalence of HCMV. However, a total number of 91serum specimens were collected to fulfill this purpose from females (71 breast cancer patients, and control group of 20 females) attending Al-Amal hospital for cancer management and Baghdad teaching hospital and the practical part was performed in College of Science, University of Baghdad. The study protocol was approved by the Ethics Committee at the Department of Biology (Reference: BEC/0220/0011). The immunological part for evaluation of seroprevalence of HCMV was accomplished by ELISA technique which revealed that anti-HCMV IgG was sco

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 30 2006
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Oral Carriage Rate of Candida Species in Diabetic Patients
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Background: It is well known that oral carriage
of Candida species increase in many situations, like
obesity, debility, leukemia, viral infection, use of
certain drugs in addition to diabetes mellitus.
Objective: find the relation between diabetes and
its control on oral carriage of Candida.
Methods: Thirty four hundred oral swabs from
diabetic patients 67% are females and 33% are
males, 41.7% are type 1 diabetes and 58.3% are type
2.different culture media are used.
Results: we found that 37.9% of diabetics had oral
carriage, older age group had more but the
difference is not significant statistically P>0.05, in
addition females carry more Candida than males
P<0.05, while type of diabetes

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Surgery Open
Incidence of differentiated thyroid carcinoma in multinodular goiter patients
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