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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role of SMEs in Economic Development in Jordan: The Case of Al Hassan Industrial Estate
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This study aimed at highlighting the role of small and medium enterprises in bringing about economic development in Jordan. The study examined the impact of the number, size of investment and the number of jobs provided by these enterprises on the rate of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) as an indicator for economic development. To achieve its objectives, the study adopted descriptive and quantitative analysis. A linear multi regression model was developed with a growth rate of GDP as dependent variable and the number of institutions, size of investment, and the number of job opportunities as independent variables. The study concluded that each increase by one small or medium enterprise lead to an increase in the rate of gr

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Rawal Medical Journal
Prevalence of bullying in primary schools of Baghdad, Iraq
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Objective: To determine the prevalence of bullying among primary schools’ children with some associated factors, and resultant effects. Methodology: This cross-sectional study with analytic elements was carried out from February through April 2022. It included a sample of 410 students from six governmental primary schools from both sides of Baghdad city. A self-constructed questionnaire was used. It comprised the following parts: Part (1): socio-demographic data, Part (2): questions that review the students’ exposure to bullying, and Part (3) entails the effects of bullying on those children. Results: The total sample was composed of 410 students; their mean age was 9.51±1.94 years. The prevalence of bullying was 56.34%. Studen

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 22 2019
Journal Name
Arab Science Heritage Journal
التطرف الفكري وانعكاساته الاجتماعية في بغداد
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يعدّ التطرف الفكري من أكبر الازمات التي تعرض لها العراق بصورة عامة ،
وبغداد بشكل خاص خلال حقب تاريخية مختلفة

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2008
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
تدريس السياسة الخارجية في جامعة بغداد
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تدريس السياسة الخارجية في جامعة بغداد

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2007
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
الاكتئاب لدى النساء العاملات في بغداد
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ان في هذه الاية الكريمة لآبلغ وصف للاكتئاب حيث الضيق الشديد والشعور باليأس من الدنيا والوحدة .

وقال المتنبي :.

كفى بك داء ان ترى الموت شافياً

وحسب المنايا ان يكن امانيا

وقال مجنون ليلى :.

وامطر في التراب سحاب جفني

وقلبي في هموم واكتئاب

الحزن والقلق والهم والغم جزء من حياة الناس وهناك كثير من العوامل الممه

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 14 2025
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Heavy Metal Pollution and Men Infertility in Al-Falluja City
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Infertilityis oneuof the most problemsathatufacingaadvancedunations. In the general, about halfof allacasesaof the infertility are causedby factors thaturelated toathe male partner. Propos educausesvofumalev infertility include evgeneticuand environmental factors. Blood samples from 64 infertileumen allawere living in urban its al-Fallujah city (30 azospermeiauand 34 oligospermeia) and 32 fertile men (asuthe control group) were collected. Heavy metal concentrations inusera of infertile and fertile groupswereumeasured by using Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer. Y- chromosomemicrodeletions were detected by using PCR techniques. Significantdifferences (P?0.05)uin the concentration ofucopper (0.0267±0.0147 and 0.0278±0.0273, for inf

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 15 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Oral health status among kindergarten children in Karbala city\Iraq
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Back ground: Dental caries and periodontal disease followed by enamel defect were the most common and widely spread diseases affecting children. Aim of this study is the assessment of the occurrence and severity of dental caries, dental plaque, gingivitis and enamel anomalies among 4-5 years old children in Karbala city-Iraq. Materials and methods: A sample of 658 children (350 males, 308 females) aged four and five years old was selected randomly from the fourteenth kindergartens in Karbala city. Diagnosis and recording of dental caries and enamel anomalies were followed the criteria of WHO 1987, WHO1997 respectively. Dental plaque was assessed using plaque index of Silness and Loe,1964. Gingival health condition was assessed using gingiv

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 04 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Heavy Metal Pollution and Men Infertility in Al-Falluja City
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Infertilityis oneuof the most problemsathatufacingaadvancedunations. In the general, about halfof allacasesaof the infertility are causedby factors thaturelated toathe male partner. Propos educausesvofumalev infertility include evgeneticuand environmental factors. Blood samples from 64 infertileumen allawere living in urban its al-Fallujah city (30 azospermeiauand 34 oligospermeia) and 32 fertile men (asuthe control group) were collected. Heavy metal concentrations inusera of infertile and fertile groupswereumeasured by using Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer. Y- chromosomemicrodeletions were detected by using PCR techniques. Significantdifferences (P?0.05)uin the concentration ofucopper (0.0267±0.0147 and 0.0278±0.0273, for infertileua

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 21 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Detection of Aflatoxin B1 among Early and Middle Childhood Iraqi Patients
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      The study was conducted for the detection of Aflatoxin B1(AFB1) in the serum and urine of 42 early and middle childhood patients (26 male and  16 female ) with renal function disease, liver function disease, in additional to atrophy in the growth and other symptoms depending on the information within consent obtained from each patient, in addition to 8 children, apparently healthy, as  the control. The technique of HPLC was used for the detection of AFB1 from all samples. The results showed that out of 42 patient children, 19 (45.2%) gave positive detection of AFB1 in the serum among all age groups patients with a mean of 0.88 ng/ml and a range of (0.12-3.04) ng/ml. This was compared with the cont

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 12 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Effect of Atorvastatin on Bone biochemical markers in dyslipidemic patients, Basra, Iraq
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Objective: The aim of the study was to estimate the action atorvastatin(20mg/day) on bone biochemical markers dyslipidemic men. Methodology: This study was conducted between May 2015 and November 2015 in Al-Basrah General hospital in Basra, Iraq, to evaluate important role of atorvastatin (20mg/day)(Lipitor® Pfizer Pharma GmbH.Germany) on bone biochemical markers. Thirty men patients who had been admitted for a variety of medical problems included in the study. All the patients had previously been diagnosed with Dyslipidemia by specialist physician in internal medicine and all patients age below 55 yea

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