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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 01 2021
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Reality analysis of the state of spatial distribution of green areas using geographic information systems (GIS) – The holy city of Najaf as a case study
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Abstract<p>Green areas are an essential component of city planning, as they serve as an outlet for them to spend their free time, in addition to the environmental role that these green areas play in improving the city’s climate by purifying the air and beautifying the city. The study’s problem is summarized in identifying the appropriateness of the current spatial distribution of green areas in the city of Najaf with the current population densities and the pattern in which green areas are distributed using GIS and knowing the per capita share of those green areas in the city, the research assumes that the inconsistency of spaces between regions Green and residential neighbourhoods need to c</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Choosing the best method for estimating the survival function of inverse Gompertz distribution by using Integral mean squares error (IMSE)
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In this research , we study the inverse Gompertz distribution (IG) and estimate the  survival function of the distribution , and the survival function was evaluated using three methods (the Maximum likelihood, least squares, and percentiles estimators) and choosing the best method estimation ,as it was found that the best method for estimating the survival function is the squares-least method because it has the lowest IMSE and for all sample sizes

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Medicine And Life
Effect and benefit of percutaneous coronary intervention in chronic total occlusion on ventricular repolarization: QT correction and dispersion
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ST segment, T wave changes, QT interval changes, and QTc dispersion are among the parameters used to diagnose ischemic heart disease. The increase in the QT dispersion can be caused by myocardial ischemia, among other heart diseases, whereas cardiac diseases such as coronary artery disease (CAD) can be diagnosed by observing an abnormally high QTc dispersion. This study aimed to evaluate the variations in the QTc dispersion (depolarization and repolarization) of surface electrocardiography as a result of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in patients with chronic total occlusion. This study took place in the Iraqi Center for Heart Disease from October 2020 to February 2021. 110 patients who suffered from chronic occlusion of t

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Scopus (13)
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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Diyala Journal For Pure Science
Determination of IL-35, PTH, Ferritin and Other biochemical parameters in sera of Iraqi Men with chronic kidney failure.
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Chronic kidney Failure, a progressive disease, includes both medical and biochemical features that damage kidneys and decrease their abilities to work effectively, this disease is characterized by a chronic disorders to both the innate and adaptive immune systems, generate a complex and not fully understood immune dysfunction. In the present study, (30) men suffering from chronic kidney failure with age in range (40-55) year and (30) healthy men within the same range of age were enrolled in this study. The aim of this study is to highlight the role of immunological aspect (IL-35), hormonal aspects (PTH), some functional proteins and immunological electrolytes in sera of chronic kidney failure (CKF) patients. Biochemical parameters were dete

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 15 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Assessment of Salivary Lactoferrin and pH Levels and Their Correlation with Gingivitis and Severity of Chronic Periodontitis (Part: 2)
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Background: Periodontal diseases are bacterial infections of the gingiva, bone and attachment fibers that support the teeth and hold them in the jaw. Lactoferrin is a multifunctional glycoprotein and it is the main component of neutrophil polymorphonuclear leukocytes that activated during inflammatory processes such as Periodontal diseases Aims of the study: Determine the salivary levels of Lactoferrin and pH and their correlations with clinical periodontal parameters(Plaque Index , Gingival Index , Bleeding on Probing , Probing Pocket Depth , and Clinical Attachment Level ) and the correlation between Lactoferrin with potential of hydrogen ion (PH) ,flow rate and α-amylase of study groups that consisted of patients had gingivitis and pa

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Evaluation of the anterior loop of the mental nerve incidence and extension in different age groups in Sulaimania city using digital panoramic imaging system
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Background: The anterior loop of mental nerve is commonly described as that part of the neurovascular bundle that transverses anterior and inferior to the mental foramen only to loop back to exit the mental foramen. The aim of the study is to evaluate the incidence and extension of anterior loop of mental nerve by using digital panoramic imaging system to avoid nerve damage during different surgical procedures in dentistry. Materials and Method: Panoramic image was taken for all 400 patients and stored in the computer. Then Horizontal and Vertical for the anterior loop extension when exist was measured and recorded in a special case sheet prepared for each subject. Results: Results indicated that out of 400 patients there were only 25 pat

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2016
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Correlation of blood, salivary glucose levels and bloo HbA1c% in healthy and previously diagnosed Diabetes Mellitus Type 2 in a sec ion of patients of Baghdad hospital, Iraq
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Background: Diabetes mellitus is a metabolic disorder affecting people worldwide, which require constant monitoring of their glucose levels. Commonly employed procedures include collection of blood or urine samples causing discomfort to the patients. Necessity arises to find alternative non invasive technique is required to monitor glucose levels. Saliva is one of most abundant secretions in the human body and its collection is easy, noninvasive and painless technique. Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the efficacy of saliva as a diagnostic tool by study the correlation between blood and salivary glucose levels and glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c%) in diabetes and non diabetes, and the comparison of salivary glucose level

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 07 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Laser Enhanced Photocatalyic Degradation of Methylene blue using Nanostructured ZnO Catalyst based on Interfacial Charge Transfer
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In this research, annealed nanostructured ZnO catalyst water putrefaction system was built using sun light and different wavelength lasers as stimulating light sources to enhance photocatalytic degradation activity of methylene blue (MB) dye as a model based on interfacial charges transfer. The structural, crystallite size, morphological, particle size, optical properties and degradation ability of annealed nanostructured ZnO were characterized by X-Ray Diffraction (XRD), Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) and UV-VIS Spectrometer, respectively. XRD results demonstrated a pure crystalline hexagonal wurtzite with crystalline size equal to 23 nm. From AFM results, the average particle size was 79.25nm. All MB samples and MB with annealed nanostr

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of the RMB exchange rate on the value of Chinese exports For the period (1978-2017) using the Angel-Granger model
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In this research, we sought to identify the nature of the relationship between the exchange rate of the Chinese yuan and the value of Chinese exports, through the formulation of a standard model based on the model of common integration, and based on the data of the study and using the test "Angel-Granger" It reflects the relationship between the two research variables, through which the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and the value of Chinese exports was estimated during the period 1978-2017.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2016
Journal Name
مجلة جامعة االنبار للعلوم البدنية والرياضية
The effects of Pilates exercises while using the ladder barrel device on fitness and coordinatedin performance for motor formations in artistic gymnastics for students
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The aim of the research was to prepare Pilates exercises using the barrel ladder apparatus and to identify the effect of Pilates exercises on agility, coordination, and motor sequences of third-year female students in artistic gymnastics. The researcher adopted the experimental method to achieve the objectives of the study and to verify its hypotheses, as it is suitable for the nature and problem of the research. In selecting the research population, the researcher carefully chose the sample using a purposive method, clarifying its elements and constituent units. The research population consisted of third-year female students at the College of Physical Education and Sports Sciences for Women / University of Baghdad, with a total of 20 stud

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