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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Existence And Controllability Results For Fractional Control Systems In Reflexive Banach Spaces Using Fixed Point Theorem
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       In this paper, a fixed point theorem of nonexpansive mapping is established to study the existence and sufficient conditions for the controllability of nonlinear fractional control systems in reflexive Banach spaces. The result so obtained have been modified and developed in arbitrary space having Opial’s condition by using fixed point theorem deals with nonexpansive mapping defined on a set has normal structure. An application is provided to show the effectiveness of the obtained result.

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Biosynthesis, Characterization, Adsorption and Antimicrobial studies of Vanadium Oxide Nanoparticles Using Punica Granatum Extract
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This study includes using green or biosynthesis-friendly technology, which is effective in terms of low cost and low time and energy to prepare V2O5NPs nanoparticles from vanadium sulfate VSO4.H2O using aqueous extract of Punica Granatum at a concentration of 0.1M and with a basic medium PH= 8-12. The V2O5NPs nanoparticles were diagnosed using several techniques, such as FT-IR, UV-visible with energy gap Eg = 3.734eV, and the X-Ray diffraction XRD was calculated using the Debye Scherrer equation. It was discovered to be 34.39nm, Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM), Transmission Electron Microscopy TEM. The size, structure, and composition of synthetic V2O5

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 20 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effective Solution of University Course Timetabling using Particle Swarm Optimizer based Hyper Heuristic approach
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The university course timetable problem (UCTP) is typically a combinatorial optimization problem. Manually achieving a useful timetable requires many days of effort, and the results are still unsatisfactory. unsatisfactory. Various states of art methods (heuristic, meta-heuristic) are used to satisfactorily solve UCTP. However, these approaches typically represent the instance-specific solutions. The hyper-heuristic framework adequately addresses this complex problem. This research proposed Particle Swarm Optimizer-based Hyper Heuristic (HH PSO) to solve UCTP efficiently. PSO is used as a higher-level method that selects low-level heuristics (LLH) sequence which further generates an optimal solution. The proposed a

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Reducing the Mutual Coupling of Cylindrical Circular Microstrip Antennas (CCMAs) Array Using EBG Structure
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A theoretical study to design a conformal microstrip antennas was introduced in this work. Conformal microstrip antennas define antennas which can be conformed to a certain shape or to any curved surface. It is used in high-speed trains, aircraft, defense and navigation systems, landing gear and various communications systems, as well as in body wearable. Conformal antennas have some advantages such as a wider-angle coverage compared to flat antennas and low radar cross-sectional (RCS) and they are suitable for using in Radome. The main disadvantage of these antennas is the narrow bandwidth. The FDTD method is extremely useful in simulating complicated structures because it allows for direct integration of Maxwell's equations depending o

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 12 2020
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Optimization the Effect of Electrode Material Change on EDM Process Performance Using Taguchi Method
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Electrical Discharge Machining (EDM) is a widespread Nontraditional Machining (NTM) processes for manufacturing of a complicated geometry or very hard metals parts that are difficult to machine by traditional machining operations. Electrical discharge machining is a material removal (MR) process characterized by using electrical discharge erosion. This paper discusses the optimal parameters of EDM on high-speed steel (HSS) AISI M2 as a workpiece using copper and brass as an electrode. The input parameters used for experimental work are current (10, 24 and 42 A), pulse on time (100, 150 and 200 µs), and pulse off time (4, 12 and 25 µs) that have effect on the material removal rate (MRR), electrode wear rate (EWR) and wear ratio (WR). A

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 08 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Use special Erwa to determine the number of live bacteria in different models
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Used in the study especially calibrated Erwa to determine the number of neighborhood or the Alayoshi number of bacteria in the count modeling and casting method dishes in addition to using the drop method yielded significant results for a match between the methods used ..

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Artificial Neural Network Models to Predict the Cost and Time of Wastewater Projects
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Infrastructure, especially wastewater projects, plays an important role in the life of residential communities. Due to the increasing population growth, there is also a significant increase in residential and commercial facilities. This research aims to develop two models for predicting the cost and time of wastewater projects according to independent variables affecting them. These variables have been determined through a questionnaire distributed to 20 projects under construction in Al-Kut City/ Wasit Governorate/Iraq. The researcher used artificial neural network technology to develop the models. The results showed that the coefficient of correlation R between actual and predicted values were 99.4% and 99 %, MAPE was

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Artificial Intelligent Models for Detection and Prediction of Lost Circulation Events: A Review
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Lost circulation or losses in drilling fluid is one of the most important problems in the oil and gas industry, and it appeared at the beginning of this industry, which caused many problems during the drilling process, which may lead to closing the well and stopping the drilling process. The drilling muds are relatively expensive, especially the muds that contain oil-based mud or that contain special additives, so it is not economically beneficial to waste and lose these muds. The treatment of drilling fluid losses is also somewhat expensive as a result of the wasted time that it caused, as well as the high cost of materials used in the treatment such as heavy materials, cement, and others. The best way to deal with drilling fluid losses

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 08 2022
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Study of Microbial Desalination Cell Performance; Power Generation and Desalination Efficiency using Pure Oxygen in a Cathode Chamber
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Microbial Desalination Cell (MDC) is capable of desalinating seawater, producing electrical power and treating wastewater. Previously, chemical cathodes were used, which were application restrictions due to operational expenses are quite high, low levels of long-term viability and high toxicity. A pure oxygen cathode was using, external resistance 50 and 150 k Ω were studied with two concentrations of NaCl in the desalination chamber 15-25 g/L which represents the concentration of brackish water and sea water. The highest energy productivity was obtained, which amounted to 44 and 46 mW/m3, and the maximum limit for desalination of saline water was (31% and 26%) for each of 25 g / L and 15 g / L, respectively, when using an ex

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Publication Date
Thu May 16 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Study of Transverse and Longitudinal Crack Propagation in Human Bone Using the Finite Element Method with MATLAB
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A finite element is a study that is capable of predicting crack initiation and simulating crack propagation of human bone. The material model is implemented in MATLAB finite element package, which allows extension to any geometry and any load configuration. The fracture mechanics parameters for transverse and longitudinal crack propagation in human bone are analyzed. A fracture toughness as well as stress and strain contour are generated and thoroughly evaluated. Discussion is given on how this knowledge needs to be extended to allow prediction of whole bone fracture from external loading to aid the design of protective systems.

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