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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 27 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Contemporary formation indicators of free zones cities -Public Free zones models-
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The free zone or the free economy cities are cities with classification and functional specificity, although the history of  the concept of these areas has been It dates back to distant eras, but the intellectual and philosophical construction with the support of intellectual approaches, the most important of which is globalization contributed to its rapid spread globally and taking a variety of forms and models. With the diversity of its formulas and objectives countries have competed in adopting the establishment of these areas, meanwhile The influence of related trends affected the contemporary formation of these sites. Therefore ,the research was directed focus on the importance of adopting a set of common indicators (collection

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2015
Journal Name
Mj Journal On Applied Mathematics
Mathematical models for estimation the concentration of heavy metals in soil
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Publication Date
Sun May 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Performance Analysis of different Machine Learning Models for Intrusion Detection Systems
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In recent years, the world witnessed a rapid growth in attacks on the internet which resulted in deficiencies in networks performances. The growth was in both quantity and versatility of the attacks. To cope with this, new detection techniques are required especially the ones that use Artificial Intelligence techniques such as machine learning based intrusion detection and prevention systems. Many machine learning models are used to deal with intrusion detection and each has its own pros and cons and this is where this paper falls in, performance analysis of different Machine Learning Models for Intrusion Detection Systems based on supervised machine learning algorithms. Using Python Scikit-Learn library KNN, Support Ve

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 31 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Sustainable Investment In Architectural Heritage Buildings (Analytical Study Of Arabic Models)
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 Heritage is considered as the civilization and cultural wealth accumulated over the . centuries, whereas architectural heritage is the physical witness of that civilization. Despite the fact that architectural heritage is the most important effort for economic development of any communit,، it suffers from deterioration and neglection especially in the Arab communities. Recently awareness has increased about the importance of investing on architectural heritage generally and sustainable investment particularly. The goal of investment process in heritage areas is to revive economic activity in addition to attempt to revive the heritage and community values. Research aims to examine the relationship between sustainable investment and

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Fabrication and Characterization of Nanofibers Membranes using Electrospinning Technology for Oil Removal
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Oily wastewater is one of the most challenging streams to deal with especially if the oil exists in emulsified form. In this study, electrospinning method was used to prepare nanofiberous polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF) membranes and study their performance in oil removal. Graphene particles were embedded in the electrospun PVDF membrane to enhance the efficiency of the membranes. The prepared membranes were characterized using a scanning electron microscopy (SEM) to verify the graphene stabilization on the surface of the membrane homogeneously; while FTIR was used to detect the functional groups on the membrane surface. The membrane wettability was assessed by measuring the contact angle. The PVDF and PVDF / Graphene membranes efficiency

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Numerical Solution of Fractional Volterra-Fredholm Integro-Differential Equation Using Lagrange Polynomials
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In this study, a new technique is considered for solving linear fractional Volterra-Fredholm integro-differential equations (LFVFIDE's) with fractional derivative qualified in the Caputo sense. The method is established in three types of Lagrange polynomials (LP’s), Original Lagrange polynomial (OLP), Barycentric Lagrange polynomial (BLP), and Modified Lagrange polynomial (MLP). General Algorithm is suggested and examples are included to get the best effectiveness, and implementation of these types. Also, as special case fractional differential equation is taken to evaluate the validity of the proposed method. Finally, a comparison between the proposed method and other methods are taken to present the effectiveness of the proposal meth

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 01 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
TREATMENT OF SYMPTOMATIC CERVICAL ECTOPY USING CO2 LASER (10600 nm) – Case Study
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Background: Cervical ectopy advanced to erosion is one of the common conditions in gynecological and pathological study. It is considered as a physiologic condition resulting from columnar epithelium migration from the cervical canal into the vaginal portion of the cervix, in which no treatment for asymptomatic cervical ectropion can be given. Treatment can be accomplished via thermal cauterization (Electro cautery), Cryosurgery. CO2 laser therapy is another modality of treatment.

Objective: To study the effectiveness of CO2 laser therapy and evaluate it as a biomedical tool for the treatment of cervical ectropion. The study was done at Laser Medicine Research Clinic at the

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Numerical Solutions of Two-Dimensional Vorticity Transport Equation Using Crank-Nicolson Method
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This paper is concerned with the numerical solutions of the vorticity transport equation (VTE) in two-dimensional space with homogenous Dirichlet boundary conditions. Namely, for this problem, the Crank-Nicolson finite difference equation is derived.  In addition, the consistency and stability of the Crank-Nicolson method are studied. Moreover, a numerical experiment is considered to study the convergence of the Crank-Nicolson scheme and to visualize the discrete graphs for the vorticity and stream functions. The analytical result shows that the proposed scheme is consistent, whereas the numerical results show that the solutions are stable with small space-steps and at any time levels.

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Audit bank credit risk in accordance with international auditing standards: Applied research at Rafidain Bank, Public Administration - Baghdad
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This research dealt with the subject of auditing bank credit risks in accordance with international auditing standards and aims to develop procedures and design a credit risk audit program in accordance with international auditing standards and demonstrate their impact on the truth, truthfulness and fairness of financial statements and on their overall performance and continuity in the banking sector Its importance lies in relying on international auditing standards to assess and measure bank credit risk and its impact on the financial situation as well as the ability to predict financial failure. A set of conclusions have been reached, the most important of which is that the bank faces difficulties in measuring credit risk in accordance

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Authority control and its role in uniting old arabic authors entries at the Central Library of the University of Baghdad and the Al-Mustansiriya: A Comparative Study
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The research aims to identify the positives formulation entrances authors depending on the setting retaining the names of the authors of Arab veterans and cons of setting the entrances to Arab authors ancient depending on the nickname by desktop diligence without reference to a setting retaining the potential to benefit other libraries disciple of retaining existing in sober university libraries. Use the survey method and adopted a questionnaire distributed to the research sample consisting of employees working in the libraries in question and the total number of forms that have been distributed (50) form .tousel search phrase conclusions from them .

1-The lack of authority control depends on it to find a

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