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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2013
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Drilling of FR-4 Composite Materials Using Single Pulse of Nd:YAG Laser
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Laser drilling is capable of producing small, precisely positioned holes with high degree of reproductively. In this paper , IR millisecond Nd:YAG single pulsed laser was used to determine the effect of laser parameters on the drilled hole of the glass - fiber reinforced epoxy composite FR-4 sample of 2 mm in thickness . The type of laser source was GSI lumonics JK760TR Series laser 1.064μm system in a CNC cabin. The JK760TR series has a 0.3-50ms pulse length and a maximum repetition rate 500Hz with an average power of 600W. The investigation of single pulse laser drilling in this paper was based on theoretical and experimental solutions. In single pulse technique, the investigation included focal plane position fpp, pulse shap

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Vibration Analysis of Cross-Ply Plates Under Initial Stress Using Refined Theory
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Natural frequency under initial stresses for simply supported cross-ply composite laminated plates (E glass- fiber) are obtained using Refind theory (RPT). This theory accounts for parabolic distribution of the transverse shear strain through the plate thickness and satisfies the zero traction boundary conditions on the surfaces of the plate without using shear correction factors. The governing equations for Eigen value problem under initial stress are derived using Hamilton’s principle and solved using Navier solution for simply supported cross-ply symmetric and antisymmetric laminated plates. The effect of many design factors such as modulus ratio, thickness ratio and number of laminates on the Natural frequency and buckling stresses

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 20 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Design and Analysis of BIMD Double Clad MMF -MZI Using Optiwave Simulation
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This work focused on principle of higher order mode excitation using in- line Double Clad Multi-Mode Mach-Zehnder Interferometer (DC-MM-MZI). The DC-MM-MZI was designed with 50 cm etched MMF. The etching length is 5cm. The tenability of this interferometer was studied using opt grating ver.4.2.2 and optiwave
ver. 7 simulator. After removing (25, 35, 45, 55) μm from MMF and immersing this segment of MMF with water bath contained distilled water and ethanol, in addition to, air. Pulsed laser source  centered at 1546.7nm ,pulse width 10ns and peak power 1.33mW was propagated via this interferometer Maximum modes were obtained in case of air surrounded media which are 9800 and 25 um removed cladding layer, with peak power 49.800 m

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Enhancement of Hybrid Solar Air Conditioning System using a New Control Strategy
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Enhancement of the performance for hybrid solar air conditioning system was presented in this paper. The refrigerant temperature leaving the condenser was controlled using three-way valve, this valve was installed after the compressor to regulate refrigerant flow rate towards the solar system. A control system using data logger, sensors and computer was proposed to set the opening valve ratio. The function of control program using LabVIEW software is to obtain a minimum refrigerant temperature from the condenser outlet to enhance the overall COP of the unit by increasing the degree of subcooled refrigerant. A variable load electrical heater with coiled pipe was used instead of the solar collector and the storage tank to simulate the sola

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 22 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Preparation of Nanoparticles in an Eco- friendly Method using Thyme Leaf Extracts
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Colloidal silver nanoparticles were prepared by single step green synthesis using aqueous extracts of the leaves of thyme as a function of different molar concentration of AgNO3 (1,2,3,4 mM(. The Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy (FESEM), UV-Visible and X-ray diffraction (XRD) were used to characterize the resultant AgNPs. The surface Plasmon resonance was observed at wavelength of 444 nm. The four intensive peaks of XRD pattern indicate the crystalline nature and the face centered cubic structure of the AgNPs. The average crystallite size of the AgNPs ranged from 18 to 22 nm. The FESEM image illustrated the well dispersion of the AgNPs and the spherical shape of the nanoparticles with a particle size distribution be

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 30 2021
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Introduction of an Appointment System in Primary Health Care Setting in Baghdad: Views of Patients and Health Care Providers
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Background: The appointment system is a common practice in primary health care clinics in developed countries. The patients and health care providers in the primary health care setting perceived the appointment system as an indicator of good quality service.

Objective: The aim of this study was to survey patients’ and health care providers’ attitudes towards the introduction of an appointment system and their satisfaction with the existing ‘walk-in’ system in the primary health care setting.

Subjects and Methods: A questionnaire survey was conducted included a convenient sample of 234 patients as well as 76 health care providers from two primary health care center

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 16 2019
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Academic Trends of Paper Press in Comparison with Internet Press A Field Study on Professors o College of Media at University of Baghdad
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This search seeks to know the trends of academics in the field of Press and audio, video and read press about paper press compared with continued development and widespread deployment of web journalism. This research belongs to descriptive studies which depends on sample survey approach adopted by five-meter design measuring trends. It contains 28 items having applied honesty and reliability transaction and the scale form is distributed to the sample studied of about 110 professors and then the researcher collects them and then applying the appropriate statistical program to get the results. This search seeks to know the trends of academics in the field of Press and audio, video and read press about paper press compared with continu

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 31 2013
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
An Investigation Study of Thinning Distribution in Single Point Incremental Forming Using FEM Analysis
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Single Point Incremental Forming (SPIF) is a forming technique of sheet material based on layered manufacturing principles. The sheet part is locally deformed through horizontal slices. The moving locus of forming tool (called as toolpath) in these slices constructed to the finished part was performed by the CNC technology. The toolpath was created directly from CAD model of final product. The forming tool is a Ball-end forming tool, which was moved along the toolpath while the edges of sheet material were clamped rigidly on fixture.

This paper presented an investigation study of thinning distribution of a conical shapes carried out by incremental forming and the validation of finite element method to evaluate the limits of the p

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The relationship of empowering workers with organizational performanceField research of the views of the scientific leaders of a number of colleges at the University of Baghdad
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The Strategy of employees' empowerment, organizational performance and total quality management represent three informative which were and still the hub of many studies and researches including the current study. The higher education is considered one of the most important services sectors and the main development as well as the civil progress in the society. It is the main source that provides the organizations with the human resources having scientific or practical professions. So Higher Education has been chosen especially Baghdad University as a sample of the study. The study problem is concentrated to find answers of the following   questions: What the level of the powers mandate in the organization concerning the

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 07 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
Tissue Welding Using (800±10nm) Diode and (1064nm) Nd: YAG Lasers
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Joining tissue is a growing problem in surgery with the advancement of the technology and more precise and difficult surgeries are done. Tissue welding using laser is a promising technique that might help in more advancement of the surgical practice. Objectives: To study the ability of laser in joining tissues and the optimum parameters for yielding good welding of tissues. Methods: An in-vitro study, done at the Institute of Laser, Baghdad University during the period from October 2008 to February 2009. Diode and Nd-YAG lasers were applied, using different sessions, on sheep small intestine with or without solder to obtain welding of a 2-mm length full thickness incision. Different powers and energies were used to get maximum effect. Re

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