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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 12 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Parents' Knowledge about Type I Diabetes Mellitus at Diabetes and Endocrine Treatment Centers in Baghdad City
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Objectives: The current study aims to evaluate parents' knowledge towards diabetes mellitus (type I); to identify the association between parents' knowledge and their demographic characteristics; and to identify the association between parents' knowledge and demographic characteristics of their children. Methodology: Descriptive study carried out during the period from January to April 2015 on purposive sample of 100 parents with their children with diabetes mellitus who attending diabetes and endocrine treatment center. An evaluation tool is constructed by the researcher based on previous literature regarding

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 07 2008
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Epidemiological Surveillance of Communicable Diseases in Baghdad City during the Period January-April 2006
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The records of Primary Health Care Centres (Al-Risafa section of Baghdad) were inspected for communicable diseases during the period January-April 2006. There were 8622 recorded cases (the diagnosis was based on a clinical examination and laboratory findings), which were distributed as 4782 (55.5%), 1430 (16.6%), 1604 (18.6%) and 806 (9.3%) for Sadar city, Risafa, A'adhamyiah and Mada'in, respectively. The highest frequency was reported for chicken pox (42.7%), followed by mumps and typhoid fever (20 and 13.7%, respectively), while diphtheria and cholera were not recorded. These three most frequent diseases were further analyzed, and their distribution showed a significant difference (P ? 0.001). April was the month of the highest recorded

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Publication Date
Sun May 01 2022
Journal Name
Revue Française D'allergologie
Indoor house dust-borne fungi and risk of allergic respiratory diseases in Baghdad city
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Publication Date
Mon Jul 05 2021
Journal Name
Revue Française D’allergologie
Indoor house dust-borne fungi and risk of allergic respiratory diseases in Baghdad city
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Publication Date
Sun May 08 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The use of GIS in the analysis of existing condition of spatial distribution of wire communications network in the city of Baghdad
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The increasing efficiency of the telecommunications network in the city contributes to the increase in spatial interaction between activities (to influence and mutual influence) This study is based on the idea that the upgrading of telephone services provided to citizens are done exclusively through the growth and development of all levels of the service using advanced technologies to know the problems and appropriate solutions in short time and less cost. Thus, crystallized the objectives of the study which was built for the importance of GIS in the planning of services in general, and infrastructure services, in particular, including telephone services, which is represent a point of contact between individuals on the one hand a

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering Science And Technology (jestec)
Water Quality Assessment And Total Dissolved Solids Prediction For Tigris River In Baghdad City Using Mathematical Models
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Total dissolved solids are at the top of the parameters list of water quality that requires investigations for planning and management, especially for irrigation and drinking purposes. If the quality of water is sufficiently predictable, then appropriate management is possible. In the current study, Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models were used as indicators of water quality and for the prediction of Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) along the Tigris River, in Baghdad city. To build these models five water parameters were selected from the intakes of four water treatment plants on the Tigris River, for the period between 2013 and 2017. The selected water parameters were Total Dissolved Solids (TDS

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 14 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation of Quality of Primary Health Care Services at Primary Health Care Centers in Baghdad City: A Comparative Study
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Objective(s): To evaluate primary health care services at primary health care centers in Baghdad City and to compare between these primary health care centers relative to such quality. Methodology: A descriptive design, using the evaluation approach, is study to Evaluation of quality of primary care services at primary health care centers in Baghdad City. A multistage probability sample of (36) health care centers was selected. The sample consists of (12) model centers, (12) urban centers, and (12) rural centers.A constructedquestionnaire is composed of (23) items. It consisted of (5) parts that include inta

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Publication Date
Wed May 02 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The Effect of Time and Place Dimensions on Changing the Quality Dimensions of Sizes of Cities: A Case Study (Baghdad city)
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The city has normal natural state, and the man has a usual movement, change and search for the new .Also, the city has a usual change and transform in its time, place and quality (sizes)structures. The city has a solid memory diving into the past and the future and reflects The real present, and this memory has a timing layers change into real materialistic place making the city has accumulated overlapping circles which is hard to break u , and it broadcasts the lockup timing density ,in which there is no visual record precisely, it is just like((the social record)) that evaluates the un visual relationships between the components and parts of the city (community and form) in a visual quiet exhibition and transform change inside.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 11 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Impact of Psychological and Social Climacteric Changes upon Quality of Life of Middle Age Women in Baghdad City
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Objective: to assessthe impact of psychological and social climacteric changes on quality of life among
middle age women in Baghdad city
Methodology: : A descriptive analytic study was conducted to study the quality of life among middle age
women due topsychological and social climacteric changes from February 2013- July 2013. A purposive
sampleconsisted of three hundred (300) womenaged (40-65) years who were attending health centers in two
sectors in Baghdad / AL- Russafa andAL- karhk . The data were collected through using interview technique ,
and questionnaire format , which comprises two parts, first part consist (socio-demographic characteristic , the
second part quality of life domains (psychological and socia

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Predicting Social Security Fund compensation in Iraq using ARMAX Model
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Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequ

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