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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 14 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Estimate the Rate of Contamination in Baghdad Soils By Using Numerical Method
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Journal of Physics: Conference Series PAPER • THE FOLLOWING ARTICLE ISOPEN ACCESS Estimate the Rate of Contamination in Baghdad Soils By Using Numerical Method Luma Naji Mohammed Tawfiq1, Nadia H Al-Noor2 and Taghreed H Al-Noor1 Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd Journal of Physics: Conference Series, Volume 1294, Issue 3 Citation Luma Naji Mohammed Tawfiq et al 2019 J. Phys.: Conf. Ser. 1294 032020 DOI 10.1088/1742-6596/1294/3/032020 DownloadArticle PDF References Download PDF 135 Total downloads 88 total citations on Dimensions. Turn on MathJax Share this article Share this content via email Share on Facebook (opens new window) Share on Twitter (opens new window) Share on Mendeley (opens new window) Hide article and author

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 11 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Quantitative detection and correlation of Epstein - Barr Virus in plasma with gingivitis and severity of chronic periodontitis by using real-time polymerase chain reaction technique
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Background: The main purpose of this study is to find if there is any correlation between the level of C-reactive protein (CRP) in gingival crevicular fluid with its serum level in chronic periodontitis patients and to explore the differences between them according to the probing depth. Materials and methods: Forty seven male subjects enrolled in this study. Thirty males with chronic periodontitis considered as study group whom further subdivided according to probing depth into subgroup 1 with pocket depth ≤6mm, subgroup 2 with pocket depth >6mm. The other 17 subjects considered as controls. For all subjects, clinical examination where done for periodontal parameters plaque index (PLI), gingival index (GI), bleeding on probing (BOP),

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Securing Text Messages Using Graph Theory and Steganography
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      Data security is an important component of data communication and transmission systems. Its main role is to keep sensitive information safe and integrated from the sender to the receiver. The proposed system aims to secure text messages through two security principles encryption and steganography. The system produced a novel method for encryption using graph theory properties; it formed a graph from a password to generate an encryption key as a weight matrix of that graph and invested the Least Significant Bit (LSB) method for hiding the encrypted message in a colored image within a green component. Practical experiments of (perceptibility, capacity, and robustness) were calculated using similarity measures like PSNR, MSE, and

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Text Multilevel Encryption Using New Key Exchange Protocol
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The technological development in the field of information and communication has been accompanied by the emergence of security challenges related to the transmission of information. Encryption is a good solution. An encryption process is one of the traditional methods to protect the plain text, by converting it into inarticulate form. Encryption implemented can be occurred by using some substitute techniques, shifting techniques, or mathematical operations. This paper proposed a method with two branches to encrypt text. The first branch is a new mathematical model to create and exchange keys, the proposed key exchange method is the development of Diffie-Hellman. It is a new mathematical operations model to exchange keys based on prime num

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 12 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Accounting Mining Data Using Neural Networks (Case study)
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Business organizations have faced many challenges in recent times, most important of which is information technology, because it is widely spread and easy to use. Its use has led to an increase in the amount of data that business organizations deal with an unprecedented manner. The amount of data available through the internet is a problem that many parties seek to find solutions for. Why is it available there in this huge amount randomly? Many expectations have revealed that in 2017, there will be devices connected to the internet estimated at three times the population of the Earth, and in 2015 more than one and a half billion gigabytes of data was transferred every minute globally. Thus, the so-called data mining emerged as a

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
DISPERSIVE LIQUID LIQUID MICRO EXTRACTION SPECTROPHOTOMETRIC DETERMINATION OF TELMESARTAN AND IRBESARTAN IN PHARMACEUTICALS SAMPLES: DISPERSIVE LIQUID LIQUID MICRO EXTRACTION SPECTROPHOTOMETRIC DETERMINATION OF TELMESARTAN AND IRBESARTAN IN PHARMACEUTICALS SAMPLES
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The current work is characterized by simplicity, accuracy and high sensitivity Dispersive liquid - Liquid Micro Extraction (DLLME). The method was developed to determine Telmesartan (TEL) and Irbesartan (IRB) in the standard and pharmaceutical composition. Telmesartan and Irbesartan are separated prior to treatment with Eriochrom black T as a reagent and formation ion pair reaction dye. The analytical results of DLLME method for linearity range (0.2- 6.0) mg /L for both drugs, molar absorptivity were (1.67 × 105-    5.6 × 105) L/ mole. cm, limit of detection were (0.0242and0.0238), Limit of quantification were (0.0821and0.0711), the Distribution coefficient were

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
Special Exercises According to Refereeing and It's Effect on Developing Some Physical Abilities Of First Class Basketball Referees in Baghdad
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Basketball is one of the most popular and popular games that have a large audience both globally and locally because of the magic it contains in terms of performance. For this sport to be a success, fundamental factors must exist and these factors is the referee. The referee plays a large and important role in the success of the game and the establishment and application of rules.The research aimed at identifying the effect of special on the development of referee's physical abilities. The researcher used the experimental method. The subjects were (12) first class basketball referees. The researcher recommended using special exercises due to their great role in developing the physical abilities of first class basketball referees

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Spatial Aesthetics in the Novels (Shai Al-Aroos by Maysaloon Hadi) and (Qiyamat Baghdad by Alya Talib) Balance Technical Study
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This study aims to create spatial balance between two Iraqi writers' novels (Maysaloon
Hadi, Alya Talib) technical and objective illustrates similarity points and difference in the
writers' style. We depended in our research on spatial classification considering the aggressive
and friendly, since the writers focused on them.
The research study concluded to many sides, some of which are similar and some are
different. Firstly, ingenuity description of the writers. Followed by the deep connection they
have. Because of the personal experience it emanated from alienation sensations and nostalgia
to deep roots to homeland.
On the other hand, difference aspects, we see Maysaloon takes symbols and illusions
unlike Aly

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 15 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Desalination of Highly Saline Water Using Direct Contact Membrane Distillation (DCMD)
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In this work, laboratory experiments were carried out to verify direct contact membrane distillation system’s performance in highly saline water desalination. The study included the investigation of various operating conditions, like feed flow rate, temperature and concentration of NaCl solution and their impact on the permeation flux were discussed. 16 cm2 of a flat sheet membrane module with commercial poly-tetra-fluoroethylene (PTFE) membrane, which has 0.22 μm pore size, 96 µm thickness and 78% average porosity, was used. A high salt rejection factor was obtained greater than 99.9%, and the permeation flux up to 17.27 kg/m2.h was achieved at 65°C for hot feed side and 20°C for cold side stream.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 13 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Improving Shear Strength of Soft Clay by Using Torn Belts Chips
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Random throwing of industrial waste has a significant impact on the environment unless it takes into account the conditions of engineered destroying and/or re-used. Taking the advantage of re-using waste materials in engineering projects represents a well-planned project in order to resolve a lot of engineering problems for some difficult soils. The objective of this study was to evaluate the capability and effects of Rubber Shreds (RS) from scrap torn belts towards improving the shear strength of soft clay. A direct shear tests were conducted on soft clay-RS mixture. The following parameters were investigated to study the influence of RS content, water content, normal stress, and dilation ratio. From experimental test results it was fou

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