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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 02 2023
Journal Name
Contemporary Trends And Issues In Science Education
Using Multi-faceted Rasch Models to Understand Middle School Students’ Argumentation Around Scenarios Grounded in Socio-scientific Issues
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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
(Dynamic& Static) Forecast of surplus or Deficit of Public budget in Iraq for (2017،2018)
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 This research aims at forecasting the public budget of Iraq (surplus or deficit) for 2017 & 2018 through using two methods to forecast. First: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using IMF estimations average oil price per barrel adopted in the public federal budget amounted to USD 44 in 2017 & USD 46 in 2018; Second: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using MOO actual average oil price in global markets amounted to USD 66 in 2018 through applying Dynamic Model & Static Model. Then analyze the models to reach the best one. The research concluded that those estimations of dynamic forecasting model of budget surplus or deficit for 2017 & 2018 gives good reliable results for future periods when using the a

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 09 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Feeding Problems in Children with Congenital Heart Diseases in Nasiriya Heart Center
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Objective: To identify feeding problems of children with congenital heart disease.
Methodology: Non probability (purposive) sample of (65) were selected of 225 children who visit Al Nasiriya
heart center during the period of conducting the pilot study, previously diagnosed with congenital heart
disease.
Results: The study results indicated that children with congenital heart disease have feeding difficulties, low
birth weight , repeated diarrhea , more than half of the sample taking medication for heart disease which cause
repeated vomiting, difficulty taking liquids and refusal of feeding or eating.(64.6%) of study sample suffered
from wasting. (78.5%) suffered from stunting. Almost half of the study sample suffered

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Environmental study of groundwater in southwest of Baghdad, Yusufiyah using GIS
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Ground water hydrochemical study in Yusufiyah depends upon (25) wells where major cations and anions were obtained as well as trace elements. The hydrochemical properties include the study of (pH, EC, TDS, and TH). The groundwater of the study area is odorless and colorless except the wells (13 and 16) with a salty taste due to the elevated (TDS) concentration in it, where the wells depth ranges between 7-20 meters. Depth of water in these wells was about 25-35 meters above sea level. Groundwater generally flows from east to west and from north east to south west. The resource of groundwater depends upon surface water. Physical specifications are measured in the water samples included temperature, color, taste, odor, pH, electrical condu

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The role of prophetic Sunna in solution of social problems
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Allah created the human from clay and made the system of marriage between male
and female as a reason for life continuity and human staying. This system produced an
organization called (the society) which is defined as a group lived in limited time and place.
Islam put fundamental and conditions of the righteous society in the Holy Quran and
prophetic sunna. Islam also put the solutions for problems (if they got) , naturally, these
problems may happened because of the nature of the life.
The problem of the research is summarized by that the problems of the society
enlarged in our Islamic society more than time ago. In the same time , some solution are
imported from west and east and from scientist and ignorant wit

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 02 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Applied Engineering & Technology
ASSESSING THE CONCENTRATIONS OF SOME HEAVY METALS IN BLOOD SAMPLES OF CHILDREN DIAGNOSED WITH AUTISM SPECTRUM DISORDERS IN BAGHDAD CITY
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Publication Date
Sun Jun 20 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Simulation and Modelling of Electricity Usage Control and Monitoring System using ThingSpeak
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Renewable energy technology is growing fast especially photovoltaic (PV) system to move the conventional electricity generation and distribution towards smart grid. However, similar to monthly electricity bill, the PV energy producers can only monitor their energy PV generation once a month. Any malfuntion in PV system components may reduce the performance of the system without notice. Thus, developing a real-time monitoring system of PV production is very crucial for early detection. In addition, electricity consumption is also important to be monitored more frequently to increase energy savings awareness among consumers. Hardware based Internet-of-Thing (IoT) monitoring and control system is widely used. However, the implementation of

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Improved Image Security in Internet of Thing (IOT) Using Multiple Key AES
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Image is an important digital information that used in many internet of things (IoT) applications such as transport, healthcare, agriculture, military, vehicles and wildlife. etc. Also, any image has very important characteristic such as large size, strong correlation and huge redundancy, therefore, encrypting it by using single key Advanced Encryption Standard (AES) through IoT communication technologies makes it vulnerable to many threats, thus, the pixels that have the same values will be encrypted to another pixels that have same values when they use the same key. The contribution of this work is to increase the security of transferred image. This paper proposed multiple key AES algorithm (MECCAES) to improve the security of the tran

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 03 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Use of Nondestructive Evaluation Technology in the Rationalization of costs: An Application In Baghdad Soft Drinks Company " Private Contribution"
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Big developments in technology have led to upset the balance of ideas, given of its own post new properties for products not provided by traditional technology, especially economic units operating within the industrial sector, and therefore it is important to develop the Iraqi industrial sector and interest to do its vital role in light Of progress technological, and the cost accounting has benefited from this technology to development its goals in the regulatory process through the use of non-destructive evaluation perspective in carrying out its functions and to provide appropriate assistance for the use of the products, which were traditional accounting does not take them into consideration. The research aims to a statement that the u

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 18 2019
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Vitamin E Level In Friedreich’s Ataxic Phenotype Patients In Four Major Hospitals In Baghdad
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Background: Friedreich ataxia (FRDA) is the most common form of inherited ataxia, comprising one-half of all hereditary ataxias with a carrier rate between 1 in 60 to 1 in 90 and with a disease prevalence of 1 per 29,000. It can occur in two forms the classic form or in association with a vitamin E dependent ataxia. The precise role of Vitamin E in the nervous system is unknown; An Oxidative attack is suspected to play a role in Ataxia with Vitamin E deficiency, as well as in Friedreich ataxia. Vitamin E is the major free-radical-trapping antioxidant.

Objective: Theobjectives of the study is to asses vitamin E level in patients with Friedreichs ataxia phenotype in Iraqi patients.

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