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Using Multivariate GARCH Models CCC (Constant Conditional Correlation) and DCC(Dynamic Conditional Correlation) To Forecast Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate in Dollar
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Abstract

Multivariate GARCH Models take several forms , the most important DCC dynamic conditional correlation, and CCC constant conditional correlation , The Purpose of this research is the Comparison for both Models.Using three  financial time series which is a series of daily Iraqi dinar exchange rate indollar, Global daily Oil price in dollar and Global daily gold price in dollarfor the period from 01/01/2014 till 01/01/2016, Where it has been transferred to the three time series returns to get the Stationarity, some tests were conducted including Ljung-Box , JarqueBera  , Multivariate ARCH to Returns Series and Residuals Series for both models In Comparison with the estimation and forecasting based on criteria ,MAE,MSE , mean absolute error and mean Square error ,  respectively  Compared to the Suitability of these two models of the nature of the data and the ability to Capture the volatility. We concluded that CCC is better than DCC

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Optimized Artificial Neural network models to time series
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        Artificial Neural networks (ANN) are powerful and effective tools in time-series applications. The first aim of this paper is to diagnose better and more efficient ANN models (Back Propagation, Radial Basis Function Neural networks (RBF), and Recurrent neural networks) in solving the linear and nonlinear time-series behavior. The second aim is dealing with finding accurate estimators as the convergence sometimes is stack in the local minima. It is one of the problems that can bias the test of the robustness of the ANN in time series forecasting. To determine the best or the optimal ANN models, forecast Skill (SS) employed to measure the efficiency of the performance of ANN models. The mean square error and

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
New Correlation To Calculate Absolute Permeability From Gas Permeameter
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In this study, two correlations are developed to calculate absolute rocks permeability from core samples tested by Gas Permeameter Apparatus. The first correlation can be applied if K g≤100, the second correlation can be applied if Kg>100. Sixty core samples having different permeabilities to give a wide range of values that necessary to achieve a correlation.

 

The developed correlation is easily applied and a quick method to avoid repeating the test at different pressure values. Only one pressure test is required to reach absolu

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Serum Leptin levels in ovarian polycystic disease and its correlation to body weight
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Background: Poly cystic ovary syndrome is a common disorder in women of reproductive age, it is associated with disturbance of reproductive, endocrine and metabolic functions. The pathophysiology of PCOS appears to be multifactorial and polygenic. Leptin seems to play an important role in pathophysiology of PCOS especially in women with BMI ≥25kg/m2. Objectives: To assess leptin level in both PCOS and healthy women and explore the relation to their body weight and body mass index. Patient and Methods: A total of 120 women were enrolled in this study, 60 women (50%) had PCOS (study group) and the reminder 60 women (50%) were healthy women and considered as control group. BMI was calculated first. Both groups were further sub

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 15 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Survey In Fisheries Sciences
The Correlation of DAZ1 Gene Methylation with Azoospermia in Iraqi Infertile Men
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After about twelve months or maybe more, some people can’t achieve pregnancy. This might be a sign of infertility as a reproductive system disease. The following study was carried out to investigate the DAZ 1 gene methylation level and its association with azoospermia in Iraqi patients. One hundred and fifty human blood samples were collected from from different regions in Baghdad governorate, including (private medicals Labs and the high institute for infertility diagnosis assisted reproductive techniques and Kamal Al- Samara'ay IVF Hospital) from both fertile and infertile men. The control group consists of 50 samples ranging from 22 to 51 years old, while the patient (infertile group) consists of 100 samples ranging between 25 and 51 y

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 03 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Health Sciences
Correlation between oxidative stress and clopidogrel drug in Iraqi patients with coronary artery disease
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Background: Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) is one of the largest causes of mortality worldwide. Clopidogrel, antiplatelet drug, has been widely used for management of CAD. The current study aimed to investigate the effect of clopidogrel on the oxidative stress in CAD patients. Methods: One hundred CAD patients, who were followed-up for 5 days after receiving clopidogrel, and 50 healthy volunteers were included in this study. Parameters include catalase (CAT), total antioxidant capacity (TAC), total oxidant capacity (TOC), total protein, albumin, and globulins were determined before and after treatment with clopidogrel. Results: CAT, TAC, and Tp were significantly decreased (P<0.0001) in CAD patients compared to healthy control and

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Correlation Expression between P52 and BCL2 among Iraqi Women with Breast Carcinoma
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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Using Artificial Neural Network to Predict Rate of Penetration from Dynamic Elastic Properties in Nasiriya Oil Field
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   The time spent in drilling ahead is usually a significant portion of total well cost. Drilling is an expensive operation including the cost of equipment and material used during the penetration of rock plus crew efforts in order to finish the well without serious problems. Knowing the rate of penetration should help in speculation of the cost and lead to optimize drilling outgoings. Ten wells in the Nasiriya oil field have been selected based on the availability of the data. Dynamic elastic properties of Mishrif formation in the selected wells were determined by using Interactive Petrophysics (IP V3.5) software based on the las files and log record provided. The average rate of penetration and average dynamic elastic propert

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
(Dynamic& Static) Forecast of surplus or Deficit of Public budget in Iraq for (2017،2018)
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 This research aims at forecasting the public budget of Iraq (surplus or deficit) for 2017 & 2018 through using two methods to forecast. First: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using IMF estimations average oil price per barrel adopted in the public federal budget amounted to USD 44 in 2017 & USD 46 in 2018; Second: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using MOO actual average oil price in global markets amounted to USD 66 in 2018 through applying Dynamic Model & Static Model. Then analyze the models to reach the best one. The research concluded that those estimations of dynamic forecasting model of budget surplus or deficit for 2017 & 2018 gives good reliable results for future periods when using the a

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Using Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System to Predict Rate of Penetration from Dynamic Elastic Properties
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Rate of penetration plays a vital role in field development process because the drilling operation is expensive and include the cost of equipment and materials used during the penetration of rock and efforts of the crew in order to complete the well without major problems. It’s important to finish the well as soon as possible to reduce the expenditures. So, knowing the rate of penetration in the area that is going to be drilled will help in speculation of the cost and that will lead to optimize drilling outgoings. In this research, an intelligent model was built using artificial intelligence to achieve this goal.  The model was built using adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system to predict the rate of penetration in

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 04 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Using the Sherrod model in predicting financial failure in Iraqi private banks: an applied study in the Iraqi commercial and Iraqi Islamic banks
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Abstract:

              The phenomenon of financial failure is one of the phenomena that requires special attention and in-depth study due to its significant impact on various parties, whether they are internal or external and those who benefit from financial performance reports. With the increase in cases of bankruptcy and default facing companies and banks, interest has increased in understanding the reasons that led to this financial failure. This growing interest should be a reason to develop models and analytical methods that help in the early detection of this increasing phenomenon in recent year   . The research examines the use of

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