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Using Multivariate GARCH Models CCC (Constant Conditional Correlation) and DCC(Dynamic Conditional Correlation) To Forecast Iraqi Dinar Exchange Rate in Dollar
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Abstract

Multivariate GARCH Models take several forms , the most important DCC dynamic conditional correlation, and CCC constant conditional correlation , The Purpose of this research is the Comparison for both Models.Using three  financial time series which is a series of daily Iraqi dinar exchange rate indollar, Global daily Oil price in dollar and Global daily gold price in dollarfor the period from 01/01/2014 till 01/01/2016, Where it has been transferred to the three time series returns to get the Stationarity, some tests were conducted including Ljung-Box , JarqueBera  , Multivariate ARCH to Returns Series and Residuals Series for both models In Comparison with the estimation and forecasting based on criteria ,MAE,MSE , mean absolute error and mean Square error ,  respectively  Compared to the Suitability of these two models of the nature of the data and the ability to Capture the volatility. We concluded that CCC is better than DCC

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 07 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Level of Counseling Services Offered to Gifted Students in Al-Baha Region from their Point Of View
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The current research aims to investigate the counseling services provided to gifted students in the Al-Baha region from their point of view, and to identify the differences in these views according to the students ’gender, educational stages, and the cities in which they study. The descriptive survey approach was followed in its relevance to the research objectives. Likewise, a random sample of gifted elementary, intermediate, and secondary school students was selected by the method of stratified sampling, as the sample reached (175) male and female students. The instrument of the research consisted of the questionnaire of counseling services presented to gifted students from their point of view prepared by researchers. The results sho

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 18 2022
The modeling techniques of the second‐order correlation function <i>g</i> <sup>(2)</sup> ( <i>τ</i> ) for a quantum emitter
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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of Models (NAGARCH & APGARCH) by Using Simulations
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Simulation experiments are a means of solving in many fields, and it is the process of designing a model of the real system in order to follow it and identify its behavior through certain models and formulas written according to a repeating software style with a number of iterations. The aim of this study is to build a model  that deals with the behavior suffering from the state of (heteroskedasticity) by studying the models (APGARCH & NAGARCH) using (Gaussian) and (Non-Gaussian) distributions for different sample sizes (500,1000,1500,2000) through the stage of time series analysis (identification , estimation, diagnostic checking and prediction). The data was generated using the estimations of the parameters resulting f

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
Indonesian Journal Of Electrical Engineering And Computer Science
Intelligence framework dust forecasting using regression algorithms models
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<span>Dust is a common cause of health risks and also a cause of climate change, one of the most threatening problems to humans. In the recent decade, climate change in Iraq, typified by increased droughts and deserts, has generated numerous environmental issues. This study forecasts dust in five central Iraqi districts using machine learning and five regression algorithm supervised learning system framework. It was assessed using an Iraqi meteorological organization and seismology (IMOS) dataset. Simulation results show that the gradient boosting regressor (GBR) has a mean square error of 8.345 and a total accuracy ratio of 91.65%. Moreover, the results show that the decision tree (DT), where the mean square error is 8.965, c

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 31 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Development of New Models to Determine the Rheological Parameters of Water-Based Drilling Fluid using Artificial Neural Networks
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It is well known that drilling fluid is a key parameter for optimizing drilling operations, cleaning the hole, and managing the rig hydraulics and margins of surge and swab pressures. Although the experimental works represent valid and reliable results, they are expensive and time consuming. In contrast, continuous and regular determination of the rheological fluid properties can perform its essential functions during good construction. The aim of this study is to develop empirical models to estimate the drilling mud rheological properties of water-based fluids with less need for lab measurements. This study provides two predictive techniques, multiple regression analysis and artificial neural networks, to determine the rheological

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 05 2024
Journal Name
Al-academy
Characteristics Of The Place In Contemporary Iraqi Television Drama Serial Iraqi love And Peace Model ( Analytical Study )
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Filled the place thought philosophers and ancient is the identity that you know The value of belonging to a World Geography existential - the spiritual , and Which is characterized by the structure humanity from one another and the Rest of the organisms they interact with him alone by environmental Conditions - surrounding has to achieve time through continuous movement Localized or comprehensive . The place is exemplified by making special Natural Great Creator, I believe making structure humanity combined - Individual interactive because of its influential role in all daily consumer Productions and creative arts, specifically drama's TV , because the place in Aesthetic discourse - TV drama directly affect the creating and building the

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Science And Research (ij
Mathematical Models for Predicting of Organic and Inorganic Pollutants in Diyala River Using AnalysisNeural Network
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Diyala river is the most important tributaries in Iraq, this river suffering from pollution, therefore, this research aimed to predict organic pollutants that represented by biological oxygen demand BOD, and inorganic pollutants that represented by total dissolved solids TDS for Diyala river in Iraq, the data used in this research were collected for the period from 2011-2016 for the last station in the river known as D17, before the river meeting Tigris river in Baghdad city. Analysis Neural Network ANN was used in order to find the mathematical models, the parameters used to predict BOD were seven parameters EC, Alk, Cl, K, TH, NO3, DO, after removing the less importance parameters. While the parameters that used to predict TDS were fourte

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 02 2023
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Image Encryption Techniques Using Dynamic Approach: An Article Review
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In this study, dynamic encryption techniques are explored as an image cipher method to generate S-boxes similar to AES S-boxes with the help of a private key belonging to the user and enable images to be encrypted or decrypted using S-boxes. This study consists of two stages: the dynamic generation of the S-box method and the encryption-decryption method. S-boxes should have a non-linear structure, and for this reason, K/DSA (Knutt Durstenfeld Shuffle Algorithm), which is one of the pseudo-random techniques, is used to generate S-boxes dynamically. The biggest advantage of this approach is the production of the inverted S-box with the S-box. Compared to the methods in the literature, the need to store the S-box is eliminated. Also, the fabr

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 20 2023
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Building an Analytical Method to Study Cantilever Beam Dynamic Response
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Cantilever beams are used in many crucial applications in machinery and construction. For example, the airplane wing, the microscopic probe for atomic force measurement, the tower crane overhang and twin overhang folding bridge are typical examples of cantilever beams. The current research aims to develop an analytical solution for the free vibration problem of cantilever beams. The dynamic response of AISI 304 beam represented by the natural frequencies was determined under different working surrounding temperatures ((-100 ℃ to 400 ℃)). A Matlab code was developed to achieve the analytical solution results, considering the effect of some beam geometrical dimensions. The developed analytical solution has been verified successful

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Point of View in Women Curriculum Vitae in Modern Iraqi Literature
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Throughout what mentioned above, It is obvious that the aware narrator in these biography models was the strongest tool in presenting the content, especially the biographies under study were written by feminine hands, striving to prove her identity by all means and ways. In addition, we can suppose that the hiding of she writer behind the character is no more than a mask, by which she want to mask herself so that she can express herself frankly and freely, especially when she talks about subjects that are inconsistent with the society, customs and traditions. It is important to refer that the existence of the participant narrator in the biographies under study does not prevent the presence of another narrator such as external or aware na

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