The way used to estimate the fuzzy reliability differs according to the nature of the information of failure time which has been dealt in this research.The information of failure times has no probable distribution to explain it , in addition it has fuzzy quality.The research includes fuzzy reliability estimation of three periods ,the first one from 1986 to 2013,the second one from 2013 to 2033 while the third one from 2033 to 2066 .Four failure time have been chosen to identify the membership function of fuzzy trapezoid represented in the pervious years after taking in consideration the estimation of most researchers, proffional geologists and the technician who is incharge of maintaining of Mosul Dam project. By using matlab programme , acpecial programme of research was designed to estimate the fuzzy reliability of last three periods ,according to the results it was found that fuzzy reliability of Al.mosul dam in the recent time reaches to 0.5 approxmatly while the fuzzy reliability of Al.mosul dam after 20 years will reach to 0.1,ie, the danger of actual collapse of the dam will be in 2033 ,So that it is important to build a new dam making sure from chosing a suitable location with respect to soil quilty , geological and clamatic which suround the location , This is to avoid the same mistake which makes us lose 33 years from the hypothetical life time of Mosul dam according to the estimation of the company which build the dam.
This study experimentally investigated Free-Fall Gravity Drainage (FFGD) under combination-drive conditions in a two-dimensional Hele-Shaw model representing a water-drive reservoir. An initially high gravity potential from the oil column enabled early oil drainage before aquifer support became dominant. Three water-drive strengths were tested, demonstrating that a stronger aquifer (1.15 psig) accelerated oil recovery to approximately 75% of the original oil in place (OOIP) within 60 minutes, resulting in a final recovery of 79.5%. However, this was accompanied by rapid water breakthrough after 2.5 minutes and high-water cuts exceeding 90%. In contrast, a weaker aquifer (0.725 psig) stabilized the oil–water contact, delaying w
... Show MoreThrust blocks and restraint joints are the two most popular methods of counteracting the thrust force that generated at pipe fittings (bends, Tee, wye, reducers, dead ends, etc…). Both systems perform the same function, which is to prevent the joints from separating from the pipes. The aim of the study is to review previous studies and scientific theories related to the study and design of thrust blocks and restraint joints to study the behavior of both systems under thrust force and to study the factors and variables that affect the behavior of these systems. The behavior of both systems must be studied because they cannot be abandoned, as each system has conditions whose use is more feasible, scientific, and economic
... Show MoreMultimedia is one of the most important elements of modern educational media and must be used in educational websites in order to disseminate knowledge on a large scale and should be used to provide scientific information to all, as the current research tried to explore the possibilities of employing them in the design of educational websites and highlight their role in promoting the scientific aspects of the user. This study included four axes, the first of which was devoted to the introduction which includes the problem of research, its importance, objectives and its objective, temporal and spatial limitations, which were limited to the study of the main pages of Arabic educational websites published in 2019. The second axis cont
... Show MoreStability of laminated plate under thermal load varied linearly along thickness, is developed using a higher order displacement field which depend on a parameter “m”, whose value is optimized to get results closest to three-dimension elasticity results. Hamilton, s principle is used to derive equations of motion for laminated plates. These equations are solved using Navier-type for simply supported boundary conditions to obtain non uniform critical thermal buckling and fundamental frequency under a ratio of this load. Many design parameters of cross ply and angle ply laminates such as, number of layers, aspect ratios and E1/E2 ratios for thick and thin plates are investigated. It is observed that linear and uniform distribution of
... Show MoreA total of 228 domestic and wild animals, including sheep, goats, cows, buffaloes, camels, horses, donkeys, dogs, cats, wild hares, Asiatic jackals, and red foxes were examined for ixodid ticks in the central region of Iraq. Nine species of ixodid ticks belong to two genera namely Hyalomma anatolicum Koch, 1844, H. excavatum Koch, 1844, H. turanicum Pomerantsef, 1946, H. scupense Delpy, 1946, H. dromedarii Koch, 1844, H. schulzei Olenev, 1931, Rhipicephalus annulatus (Say, 1821), R. turanicus Pomerantsef & al., 1940 and R. leporis Pomerantsef, 1946 were recovered. Their distribution among hosts and infestation rates were di
... Show MoreThe logistic regression model is one of the oldest and most common of the regression models, and it is known as one of the statistical methods used to describe and estimate the relationship between a dependent random variable and explanatory random variables. Several methods are used to estimate this model, including the bootstrap method, which is one of the estimation methods that depend on the principle of sampling with return, and is represented by a sample reshaping that includes (n) of the elements drawn by randomly returning from (N) from the original data, It is a computational method used to determine the measure of accuracy to estimate the statistics, and for this reason, this method was used to find more accurate estimates. The ma
... Show MoreThe study of the validity and probability of failure in solids and structures is highly considered as one of the most incredibly-highlighted study fields in many science and engineering applications, the design analysts must therefore seek to investigate the points where the failing strains may be occurred, the probabilities of which these strains can cause the existing cracks to propagate through the fractured medium considered, and thereafter the solutions by which the analysts can adopt the approachable techniques to reduce/arrest these propagating cracks.In the present study a theoretical investigation upon simply-supported thin plates having surface cracks within their structure is to be accomplished, and the applied impact load to the
... Show MoreST Alawi, NA Mustafa, Al-Mustansiriyah Journal of Science, 2013
Inferential methods of statistical distributions have reached a high level of interest in recent years. However, in real life, data can follow more than one distribution, and then mixture models must be fitted to such data. One of which is a finite mixture of Rayleigh distribution that is widely used in modelling lifetime data in many fields, such as medicine, agriculture and engineering. In this paper, we proposed a new Bayesian frameworks by assuming conjugate priors for the square of the component parameters. We used this prior distribution in the classical Bayesian, Metropolis-hasting (MH) and Gibbs sampler methods. The performance of these techniques were assessed by conducting data which was generated from two and three-component mixt
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