The way used to estimate the fuzzy reliability differs according to the nature of the information of failure time which has been dealt in this research.The information of failure times has no probable distribution to explain it , in addition it has fuzzy quality.The research includes fuzzy reliability estimation of three periods ,the first one from 1986 to 2013,the second one from 2013 to 2033 while the third one from 2033 to 2066 .Four failure time have been chosen to identify the membership function of fuzzy trapezoid represented in the pervious years after taking in consideration the estimation of most researchers, proffional geologists and the technician who is incharge of maintaining of Mosul Dam project. By using matlab programme , acpecial programme of research was designed to estimate the fuzzy reliability of last three periods ,according to the results it was found that fuzzy reliability of Al.mosul dam in the recent time reaches to 0.5 approxmatly while the fuzzy reliability of Al.mosul dam after 20 years will reach to 0.1,ie, the danger of actual collapse of the dam will be in 2033 ,So that it is important to build a new dam making sure from chosing a suitable location with respect to soil quilty , geological and clamatic which suround the location , This is to avoid the same mistake which makes us lose 33 years from the hypothetical life time of Mosul dam according to the estimation of the company which build the dam.
The research risk of flooding on six water basins located in the eastern part of the western plateau, reached total area of the basin (22,998.9 km 2), has reached all the Basin area (basin to time 7056.1 km2 basin by 3585 km 2, Bath Alheiazi 6404 km 2, Abu beasts 544.1 km2 basin Abu Shannan 144.6 km 2, Bath Valley Faraj 5265.1 km 2), where it was specifically spatial degree of this risk by studying some of the hydrological basin transactions directly related to operations spate runoff study area and the occurrence of flood risks on the surface of ponds.
In this paper, a Monte Carlo Simulation technique is used to compare the performance of MLE and the standard Bayes estimators of the reliability function of the one parameter exponential distribution.Two types of loss functions are adopted, namely, squared error loss function (SELF) and modified square error loss function (MSELF) with informative and non- informative prior. The criterion integrated mean square error (IMSE) is employed to assess the performance of such estimators .
In this paper, Bayesian estimator for the parameter and reliability function of inverse Rayleigh distribution (IRD) were obtained Under three types of loss function, namely, square error loss function (SELF), Modified Square error loss function (MSELF) and Precautionary loss function (PLF),taking into consideration the informative and non- informative prior. The performance of such estimators was assessed on the basis of mean square error (MSE) criterion by performing a Monte Carlo simulation technique.
The goal (purpose) from using development technology that require mathematical procedure related with high Quality & sufficiency of solving complex problem called Dynamic Programming with in recursive method (forward & backward) through finding series of associated decisions for reliability function of Pareto distribution estimator by using two approach Maximum likelihood & moment .to conclude optimal policy
This article aims to estimate the partially linear model by using two methods, which are the Wavelet and Kernel Smoothers. Simulation experiments are used to study the small sample behavior depending on different functions, sample sizes, and variances. Results explained that the wavelet smoother is the best depending on the mean average squares error criterion for all cases that used.
Free vibration behavior was developed under the ratio of critical buckling temperature of laminated composite thin plates with the general elastic boundary condition. The equations of motion were found based on classical laminated plate theory (CLPT) while the solution functions consists of trigonometric function and a continuous function that is added to guarantee the sufficient smoother of the so-named remaining displacement function at the boundaries, in this research, a modified Fourier series were used, a generalized procedure solution was developed using Ritz method combined with the imaginary spring technique. The influences of many design parameters such as angles of layers, aspect ratio, thickness ratio, and ratio of initial in-
... Show MoreThrough recent years many researchers have developed methods to estimate the self-similarity and long memory parameter that is best known as the Hurst parameter. In this paper, we set a comparison between nine different methods. Most of them use the deviations slope to find an estimate for the Hurst parameter like Rescaled range (R/S), Aggregate Variance (AV), and Absolute moments (AM), and some depend on filtration technique like Discrete Variations (DV), Variance versus level using wavelets (VVL) and Second-order discrete derivative using wavelets (SODDW) were the comparison set by a simulation study to find the most efficient method through MASE. The results of simulation experiments were shown that the performance of the meth
... Show MoreIn this paper, we will provide a proposed method to estimate missing values for the Explanatory variables for Non-Parametric Multiple Regression Model and compare it with the Imputation Arithmetic mean Method, The basis of the idea of this method was based on how to employ the causal relationship between the variables in finding an efficient estimate of the missing value, we rely on the use of the Kernel estimate by Nadaraya – Watson Estimator , and on Least Squared Cross Validation (LSCV) to estimate the Bandwidth, and we use the simulation study to compare between the two methods.
The current study aimed to determine the relation between the lead levels in the blood traffic men and the nature of their traffic work in Baghdad governorate. Blood samples were collected from 10 traffic men and the age about from 20-39 year from Directorate of Traffic Al Rusafa/ Baghdad and 10 samples another control from traffic men too with age 30-49 year and they livedrelatively in the clear cities or contained of Very few traffic areas. The levels of lead in blood estimated by used Atomic Absorption Spectrometry.
The result stated that there is no rising of the levels of lead in blood of traffic men Lead concentration was with more a range from 14 ppm in Traffic police are not healthy They are within the permissible limits, Ap