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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 02 2021
Journal Name
Review Of International Geographical Education
Energy Security and Energy Transition in Germany
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Energy is one of the components of the national security of countries and is of particular importance to the industrialized countries, including Germany. Energy policy includes many areas and has an impact on various sectors such as the environment, climate, agriculture and others. During the past few years, Germany has witnessed many transformations, the most important of which is the energy transition towards renewable energy, and it was strengthened in the strategy that was It was developed in 2010, which aims to achieve a long-term energy transformation, and sales of the German energy technology sector have evolved from 2010 to 2020, and this issue is related on the other hand to the concept of energy security and because of its strateg

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A comparison between Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate Poisson regression model hierarchy and its application to the maternal deaths in Baghdad
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Abstract:

 This research aims to compare Bayesian Method and Full Maximum Likelihood to estimate hierarchical Poisson regression model.

The comparison was done by  simulation  using different sample sizes (n = 30, 60, 120) and different Frequencies (r = 1000, 5000) for the experiments as was the adoption of the  Mean Square Error to compare the preference estimation methods and then choose the best way to appreciate model and concluded that hierarchical Poisson regression model that has been appreciated Full Maximum Likelihood Full Maximum Likelihood  with sample size  (n = 30) is the best to represent the maternal mortality data after it has been reliance value param

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Publication Date
Mon May 31 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Effect of Shatt Al-Arab Salinity on the Groundwater of Al-Fao and Al-Siba in Southern Iraq
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This study was conducted to estimate the extent of damage to the population in Basra, southern Iraq, specifically the areas adjacent to the Shatt al-Arab and the Arabian Gulf, which are the Al-Fao district and the Al-Siba region. They are affected by the progression of saline water resulting from the lack of water imports and the Karun River interruption, which led to high concentrations of salts in the Shatt Al-Arabs. Consequently, its effect on lands and all life types in these areas requires correcting a map of the study area to drop the groundwater sites as well as calculate the total dissolved salts, electrical conductivity and pH. This study concluded that the groundwater contains very high percentages of total dissolved solid

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Publication Date
Sun May 10 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Temperature Impacts on the Cardiac Activity of the Snail Pomacea canaliculata from Shatt Al-Arab Region, Basrah, Iraq
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The effects of temperature on an exotic aquatic snail Pomacea canaliculata  (Lamarck, 1819) collected from the Shatt Al-Arab intertidal zone were investigated. A series of laboratory experiments were conducted during the summer period of 2017. Individuals of new born snails hatched in the laboratory from adult snails were collected from Shatt Al-Arab intertidal zone, and subjected to five fixed temperatures: 15, 25, 35, 40 and 45 Cº, after short term thermal acclimation. The heartbeats (HB) were counted at each temperature level. The results showed significant  direct increase of HB from 15 Cº (19.8 HB/min) up to 25 Cº (76 HB/min) (P<0.05)  as well as from 25 Cº to 35 Cº (93 HB/min). At 40 Cº the snail HB

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2023
Journal Name
Practice Periodical On Structural Design And Construction
Best Practice Strategies for Workforce Development and Sustainability in Construction
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Publication Date
Sun Apr 03 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The impact of the model and follows on the collection and Retention of fifth grade students (oiterary) in history
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The first chapter the importance of research and need for education scientists see that the roots of the use of a specimen Wheatley in learning and teaching back to Grayson Wheatley, one of the largest supporters of a modern construction, which lay the groundwork for the specimen stage and the form in which it is. That was attributed to him, often called his name called while some educators based learning strategy on the issue. He sees the learner in this model make him a meaningful understanding of problems during his progress, thereby acting with his colleagues to find solutions to them in small groups. He

        Borders Search: Search by students is determined by th

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 31 2021
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Populism in the Palestinian political discourse The Fatah and Hamas movements are a model
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Receipt Date:10/11/2021 Acceptance Date:29/12/2021 Publication Date:31/12/2021

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

The study aimed to clarify the conceptual explanations and the theoretical rooting of the concept of the populist phenomenon. And explore the political and cultural implications and connotations contained in populist political discourse. And to stand on the foundations and meanings on w

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 27 2021
Journal Name
Human Interaction, Emerging Technologies And Future Systems V: Proceedings Of The 5th International Virtual Conference On Human Interaction And Emerging Technologies, Ihiet 2021, August 27-29, 2021 And The 6th Ihiet: Future Systems (ihiet-fs 2021), October 28-30, 2021, France
Electricity Consumption Forecasting in Iraq with Artificial Neural Network
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Publication Date
Sat Jan 20 2024
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
The Effect of Partial Substitution of Ge-S-Cd Alloys on the Density of Energy States
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Five samples of the ternary alloy Ge-S-Cd were created using the melting point method, and the effects of partially substituting cadmium for germanium were determined. and partial substitution of germanium by cadmium was used to study the change in electrical conductivity. Electrical experiments were performed on Ge35-xS65Cdxternary alloy with x = 0, 5, 10, 15, and 20. It was discovered that the conductivity (σdc) rises with rising temperature in all samples under experiment. This confirms that the samples have semiconductor behavior. It has been observed that there are three regions of electrical conductivity in the electrical conductivity curve at low, moderate, and high temperatures. The pr

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 15 2023
Journal Name
Al-academy
The role of the sound effect to represent the psychopathic character in cinema
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The process of employing modern technology in a consistent manner is what the researcher is interested in, and the psychological role of the sound effect in enhancing psychopathic representations in cinematic characters, which had a wide resonance in the field of cinematic films, and after the predominance of digital technology in the production of contemporary films, the sound effect has a higher efficiency And a good level of advanced aesthetic and dramatic expression in film employment, so many directors resorted to this type of films by using various new and advanced techniques and technological programs in their industry, since the traditional construction does not achieve the dazzling that the viewer desires.

Accordingly, th

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