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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 11 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Developing the Social Studies Curriculum at the Primary Stage in View of the Standards of the Next Generation
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The aim of the current research is to develop the social studies curriculum at the primary stage in light of the standards of the next generation, which was represented in three main dimensions (pivotal ideas, scientific practices, and comprehensive concepts). The researcher designed a tool for the study, which is a content analysis card in the light of (NGSS) standards, based on the previous main dimensions. The descriptive analytical approach was adopted in analyzing the social studies curriculum for the primary stage to determine the degree to which the standards of the next generation are available, as well as to establish the theoretical framework related to the research variables. To develop the social studies curriculum in light o

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The effect of strategic alignment on the reputation of the organization
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The current study aims to determine the extent of SOMO's interest in strategic alignment operations and whether this interest is sufficient to be reflected in enhancing its organizational reputation. The field of research was in the oil marketing company SOMO. The managers in the top management within this company were targeted and the questionnaire was used as a data collection tool. The study population (109), (105) questionnaires were distributed, (94) questionnaires and (11) questionnaires were not retrieved, and the valid questionnaires had reached (91) and the analytical and descriptive approach was used for the study, the current research found to find A direct relationship and a positive effect of strategic

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Developing strategic leadership practices in the light of transparency and organizational citizenship behavior - A field study of a sample of the staff of the Office of the Inspector General at the Iraqi Ministry of Culture
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Diversity the terms and practice the organizational filed with different concepts and environment, which Iraqi environment part from them. Some organizational in Iraqi environment leave its basic oriented to agreement with the leader desire, their fore this research focus tow basic variable (organizational citizenship behavior & transparence), we supposition which is dependent to explanation the response variable (strategic leadership). The results justification in part and not justification in another part. For example the organizational citizenship behavior effect on some parte of the strategic leadership. The transparence have faraway to fly from the relation with organizational citizenship behavior and strategic leadershi

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 03 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Impact of the Constructive Scientific Stations Strategy on Achievement and Mind Habits for The Fourth Scientific students in biology
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The study aimed at ideutifying the impact of scieutific skills in strategy and liabits of mind amony stueuts in tenth grade . The study demanded to choose a sampie that coutaiun (42) student of the fourth grade of the secondary school who were dirided into tow groups , the first is experimental studied according to scieutific skill strategy , and the other controlling , studied according to the  usualway . An achievement test  has been taken that adopted  staudard for mind skills as research tools that are applid after ascertaining  sincerity proved at the end of the experiment .The study has reached to the conclusion that there are statistically significant differnces in farour of the experiment group in both

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 18 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Indium doped ZnO Urbach energy and dispersion parameters of thin films
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The characterization of ZnO and ZnO:In thin films were confirmed by spray pyrolysis technique. The films were deposited onto glass substrate at a temperature of 450°C. Optical absorption measurements were also studied by UV-VIS technique in the wavelength range 300-900 nm which was used to calculate the optical constants. The changes in dispersion and Urbach parameters were investigated as a function of In content. The optical energy gap was decreased and the wide band tails were increased in width from 616 to 844 eV as the In content increased from 0wt.% to 3wt.%. The single–oscillator parameters were determined also the change in dispersion was investigated before and after doping.

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2016
Journal Name
International Journal Of Vlsi Design & Communication Systems (vlsics)
SIMULTANEOUS OPTIMIZATION OF STANDBY AND ACTIVE ENERGY FOR SUB THRESHOLD CIRCUITS
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Increased downscaling of CMOS circuits with respect to feature size and threshold voltage has a result of dramatically increasing in leakage current. So, leakage power reduction is an important design issue for active and standby modes as long as the technology scaling increased. In this paper, a simultaneous active and standby energy optimization methodology is proposed for 22 nm sub-threshold CMOS circuits. In the first phase, we investigate the dual threshold voltage design for active energy per cycle minimization. A slack based genetic algorithm is proposed to find the optimal reverse body bias assignment to set of noncritical paths gates to ensure low active energy per cycle with the maximum allowable frequency at the optimal supply vo

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Effect of Laser Energy and Repetition Rate on Holmium Plasma Emission
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The holmium plasma induced by a 1064-nmQ-switched Nd:YAG laser in air was investigated. This work was done theoretically and experimentally.  Cowan code was used to get the emission spectra for different transition of the holmium target. In the experimental work, the evolution of the plasma was studied by acquiring spectral images at different laser pulse energies (600,650,700, 750, and 800 mJ). The repetition rates of (1Hz and 10Hz) in the UV region (200-400 nm). The results indicate that, the emission line intensities increase with increasing of the laser pulse energy and repetition rate. The strongest emission spectra appeared when the laser pulse energy is 800mJ and 10 Hz repetition rate at λ= 345.64nm, with the maximum intensi

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of customer contact on operation performance Case study in the specialist Dental Centre in Al-alwia
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the researchers Sought to determine the impact of the customer contact (Within a client contact there are two times, first is the total time required to create a service and within it there is contact time while the second time is the time of client contact ؛ where means a time that records the physical presence of the customer during the process of service) on operations performance by concentrate attention on the cost (labor productivity) and quality (patient ratio to the doctor) and speed (cycle time) and flexibility (the flexibility range) , as well as ruling out variable of innovation because of impossibility to measure this variable in the Specialty Center for Dental in al-alwia due to the center is lacking of mechanisms t

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of e-learning standards in auditing in auditing the performance of customer capita: applied research
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                  In light of the corona pandemic, educational institutions have moved to learning and teaching via the Internet and e-learning ,and this is considered a turning  point in course of higher education in Iraq in particular and education in general, which generated a great challenge for educational institutions to achieve the highest possible levels in practices and processes to reach the highest quality of their outputs from graduate students to the labor market that auditing performance by adopting e-learning standards is one of the effective tools that help the management of educational institutions by providing information on the ex

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Moved movement the dynamics of conflict and the restructuring of balance maps in Syria
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This study deals with the absence of state control over the whole of the Syrian geography in creating an environment conducive to the emergence of a new force represented by armed groups and organizations that point to fundamental changes in the conflict and to transform competition for control over the land into a struggle for influence. Which in itself represents the prospects of change in the Syrian scene, and that understanding their interests requires shedding light on the extent of the continuation of this competition and the conflict on land and expansion at the expense of the other, and thus contribute to complicate the Syrian scene, especially after attempts to bite Of land and annexation to each party's areas of influence, espe

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