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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Local Food Crisis in Iraq Between Thoughts of the Malthusian Theory and the Agricultural Section Regression Reality
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Most countries in the world particularly developing countries, including Iraq,  facing  extremely dangerous problem with social and political dimensions, which is the emergence of the food crisis  problem ,the decrease in domestic food production in Iraq isn't meet the needs of its population food, due to the fact that the agricultural sector suffers from multiple natural ,economic  and human   problems .It is still below the level required to meet the needs of the population  of  food ,since food  at the forefront of priorities needed by the human . This represents indispensable  basic  necessity , so the responsibility of its availability permanently  in appropriate&nb

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 03 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The pioneering trend in managing health institutions and its impact on improving the quality of services : A case study in some institutions of the Iraqi Ministry of Health
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This study seeks to identify the role that the leadership trend plays in the management of health institutions in Iraq and its impact on improving the quality of the health service provided by analyzing some opinions of affiliates working in the Iraqi health sector where a survey list was used as a main tool for collecting primary data, as it was subjected to this analysis ( 60) of the medical staff, of whom (40) are doctors and (20) are affiliated with the rank of assistant physician, and (60) members of the administrative cadre have undergone their various job ranks and administrative specializations (department manager, auditor, observer, accountant, statistician, secretary). Reliance on statistical software (spss) in data ana

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The measurement of Ibn Abi al-Rabee (688 AH) in his book (Abstract in the regulation of Arabic laws)
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The book of the summary in the control of the laws of Arabic is one of the most important books of Andalusian grammar, the resonance of which is clearly evident among the mother of the language books in the seventh century AH because of the character of the educational style easy and simplified service for anyone who wants the Nile Arabic grammar, that end through what is pursued in his book (Summary) on according to visual standards, as was Ibn Abi Al-Rabeea of first- type, and illustrated in which he addressed the analogies, and he followed the modalities expressed and its consequences relating to each attachment in which a (illness and reasoning factor) And what he said in the framework of each service for the study material in his ha

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Family’s Role in Inculcating the Moral Values of Voluntary Work among Adults
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The study aims to identify the role of family in inculcating the moral values of voluntary work among adults, as it constitutes the basic social institution that is responsible for raising and control children. It has regarded as the first phase of constituting societies, where family plays a significant role in changing the behavior of individuals positively or negatively through provided patterns. The moral values act as organizer of human relationship in which misusing of these values would affect the interaction between people. This study focuses on how to employ the moral values in voluntary work as a civilized behavior helps in developing and strengthening societies. The researcher adopted the analytical-descriptive approach as mor

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2015
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Rooting non-violence in the Holy Quran And models of the Prophet application
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The term “non-violence” is a means of political, social, and advocacy that excludes force in reaching its objectives, and lacks infringement of the rights of non-violence. The policy of non-violence is a beautiful logic of the whole of Islamic creation, in that it is an integral part of the whole structure of Islam and it is a policy of brilliant and brilliant saying in the Almighty: `` Neither level nor good or bad, pay what is better, If that between you and him enmity as if he were intimate guardian (Suratvsalat, verse: 34. Has According to the prophet of Islam, it means that God gives to kindness (kindness) what does not give to violence (Sunan Abu Dawood, 4/255). These terms accurately communicate what is meant by violence and n

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 12 2017
Journal Name
Al-academy
The Origins of Chinese Influence on Pottery in the Tang and Song Dynasties
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This research study of influence of Chinese thought on porcelain in the tang and song period, the study came into four sections, which are:
* First section contains general framework of the research, which include the problem, which is represented by following of questions:
1- Is there intellectual and ideological dimensions in Chinese porcelain?
2-What are the mechanisms and techniques of Chinese porcelain?
.the importance of this research and the need counted as a study providing cognitive addition into the Chinese arts field, especially ceramics of the Chinese. The aim of the research included of areas of artistic creativity in Chinese pottery and ceramics according to the bases of construction and composition. As the impo

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
Employing the elements of film construction in embodying the style cinematically: عامر الحديثي
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The researcher concluded that it consists of several types of structures, where the intellectual structure related to the choice of the idea, its treatment, its effect, the choice of the topic, the way ideas are addressed and presented in the film, and then the dramatic structure of the film's characters, the formulation of its events, its dramatic composition, its temporal arrangement, the identification of the parties to the conflict and their management, then these are formulated. Visions and ideas through the visual and audio signal systems, which work to highlight the stylistic features in the character of the film director.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 30 2019
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Military incidental messages In Andalusia until the end of the sixth century AH
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The Arab literature in Andalusia was distinguished by its special nature, in addition to the distinction of its influencing rhythm in our souls, it represents the natural extension of the Arab-Islamic civilization in Morocco, that civilization that collapsed with insecurity and stability and the exit of Muslim Arabs from those countries and the defeat of Muslims, their civilization has ceased, and only remains of them witnessing For its leaders in a safe and stable life, but literature in Andalusia underwent many experiences that express the lives of Arab Muslims there, especially what distinguished the Andalusian Muslims from their many battles and conquests, but they did not suffer as their support during the fall of Andalusia and the

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring the Level of Entrepreneurial Orientation: Analytical Research in the National Security Advisory
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The current research aims to measure the level of entrepreneurial orientation and its dimensions (creativity, independence, proactivity, risk tolerance, and achievement) in the National Security Chancellery, as its importance and role in guiding senior leaders of the chancellery to make strategic decisions with high quality in various Iraqi concerns, more specifically the security aspect. The data was collected from 94 individuals (the research sample) from the research community (120) individuals at different administrative levels and intentionally where the questionnaire was adopted as a main tool for data collection and the primary data was analyzed through descriptive and inferential statistical methods (arithmetic mean, standard dev

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 18 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Control Over The Medical Evacuation Program in light of the Government's Accounting System
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The accounting system of government is considered an important tool to follow up the financial transactions that reflect the activities of governmental units and by which the useful information for estimating governmental annual revenues and expenditures are provided through the state public budget because it is an information system that provides detailed past performance, as well as measures the efficiency of the governmental agencies performance in implementing the budget, and the of success governmental units is measured through the type of services and programs offered, their size and the possibility of achieving the objectives assigned to them. The medical evacuation program is one of the medical and curative health services provid

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