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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis, characterization, molecular docking, ADMET prediction, and anti-inflammatory activity of some Schiff bases derived from salicylaldehyde as a potential cyclooxygenase inhibitor
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A series of Schiff base-bearing salicylaldehyde moiety compounds (1-4) had been designed, synthesized, subjected to insilico ADMET prediction, molecular docking, characterization by FT-IR, and CHNS analysis techniques, and finally to their Anti-inflammatory profile using cyclooxygenase fluorescence inhibitor screening assay methods along with standard drugs, celecoxib, and diclofenac. The ADMET studies were used to predict which compounds would be suitable for oral administration, as well as absorption sites, bioavailability, TPSA, and drug likeness. According to the results of ADME data, all of the produced chemicals can be absorbed through the GIT and have passed Lipinski’s rule of five. Through molecular docking with PyRx 0.8, these

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Publication Date
Wed May 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis, Spectroscopy and Biological Activity Study of Some New Complexes with Schiff Base Derived From Malonic Acid Dihydrazide with 2-pyridine Crboxaldehyde
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تم تحضير ثلاث معقدات جديدة Ni (II)و Cu (II) و Zn (II) باستخدام الليكند المحضر الجديد من تفاعل حامض مالونيك ثنائي هيدرازايد مع 2-بيريدين كربوكسالديهايد. حيث شخصت المعقدات لمحضرة وكذلك الليكند باستخدام تقنيات مختلفة مثل FT-IR و UV-Vis و Mass و 1H-NMR و 13C-NMR وتحليل العناصر CHN و تقدير محتوى  الكلور والموصلية المولارية والحساسية المغناطيسية والامتصاص الذري لتشخيص هذه المركبات. لكل معقد محضر جديد من النيكل والنحاس والزنك ، كشفت نتائج ا

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 22 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Geometry, and Normal Modes of Vibration (3N-6) for Di and Tetra-Rings Layer (6, 0) Linear (Zigzag) SWCNTs; A DFT Treatment
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            Density Functional Theory (DFT) method of the type (B3LYP) and a Gaussian basis set (6-311G) were applied for calculating the vibration frequencies and absorption intensities for normal coordinates (3N-6) at the equilibrium geometry of the Di and Tetra-rings layer (6, 0) zigzag single wall carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) by using Gaussian-09 program. Both were found to have the same symmetry of D6d point group with C--C bond alternation in all tube rings (for axial bonds, which are the vertical C--Ca bonds in rings layer and for circumferential bonds C—Cc in the outer and mid rings bonds). Assignments of the modes of vibration IR active and inactive vibration frequ

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 31 2022
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Assessment of Awareness And Knowledge among Medical Students Regarding Radiation Exposure from Common Diagnostic Imaging Procedures: Radiation exposure awareness among medical students
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Objective: to assess the awareness and knowledge of our medical students regarding dose levels of imaging procedures and radiation safety issues, and to conclude how the curriculum of clinical radiology in the college medical program impacts such knowledge.

Subjects and methods:  this is a cross-sectional study conducted among 150 medical students in Alkindy College of Medicine between January 2021 to July 2021, regardless of their age or gender. The study included six grades according to the year 2020-2021. A questionnaire consisting of 12 multiple-choice questions was conducted via an online survey using Google Forms. The questions were divided into two parts

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Preparation-and Spectroscopic Characterization of Transition Metal Complexes with Schiff base 2-[1-(1H-indol-3-yl)ethylimino) methyl]naphthalene-1-ol
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The ligand 2-[1-(1H-indol-3-yl)ethylimino) methyl]naphthalene-1-ol, derived from 1-hydroxy-2-naphthaldehyde and 2-(1H-indol-3-yl)ethylamine, was used to produce a new sequence of metal ions complexes. Thus ligand reactions with NiCl2.6H2O, PdCl2, FeCl3.6H2O and H2PtCl6.6H2O were sequentially made to collect mono-nuclear Ni(II), Pd(II), Fe (III), and Pt(IV). (IR or FTIR), Ultraviolet Reflective (UV–visible), Mass Spectra analysis, Bohr-magnetic (B.M.), metal content, chloride content and molar conductivity have been the defining features of the composites. The Fe(III) and Pt(IV) complexes have octahedral geometries, while the Ni(II) complex has tetra

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 28 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Qualitative and Quantitative Determination of Dapagliflozin Propanediol Monohydrate and Its Related Substances and Degradation Products Using LC-MS and Preparative Chromatography Methods
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Dapagliflozin is a novel sodium-glucose cotransporter type 2 inhibitor. This work aims to develop a new
validated sensitive RP-HPLC coupled with a mass detector method for the determination of dapagliflozin, its
alpha isomer, and starting material in the presence of dapagliflozin major degradation products and an internal
standard (empagliflozin). The separation was achieved on BDS Hypersil column (length of 250mm, internal
diameter of 4.6 mm and 5-μm particle size) at a temperature of 35℃. Water and acetonitrile were used as
mobile phase A and B by gradient mode at a flow rate of 1 mL/min. A wavelength of 224nm was selected to
perform detection using a photo diode array detector. The method met the

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 23 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Inorganic And Organometallic Polymers And Materials
Quaternary Biocomposite of Chitosan-Polyvinyl Alcohol/Food Grade Algae/ Montmorillonite Clay for Cationic Methyl Violet 2B Dye Removal: Optimization and Desirability Functions
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Publication Date
Tue Jun 17 2025
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis and Biological Study of Schiff–Mannich Base Derived from 2-Mercaptobenzimidazole as Chelated Tridentate Ligand with Some Transition Metal Ions Complexes
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To prepare a new ligand, many compounds were used to synthesize Schiff-Mannich base, such as isatin, Para chloro Aniline, 2-mercaptobenzimidazole and indole. The resulting compound 1-((2-((1H-indol-1-ylthio)-1H-benzo[d]imidazol1-yl)methyl)-3-(4-chlorophenylimino)indolin-2-one (L). (L) was used to create a series of metal ion complexes with Co (II), Ni (II), Cu (II), Pd (II), Pt (IV), and Au (III). C.H.N.S., FTIR, mass spectra UV-ViS, 1H-NMR, 13CNMR, magnetic moment, and molar conductivity were used to characterize all of these compounds. Except for the palladium(II) and gold(III) complexes, all of the produced complexes had an octahedral geometry, according to the data. The antibacterial activity of the produced compounds was tested by usin

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Influence of Varying Temperature and Concentration on Magnetohydrodynamics Peristaltic Transport for Jeffrey Fluid with a Nanoparticles Phenomenon through a Rectangular Porous Duct
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A mathematical model constructed to study the combined effects of the concentration and the thermodiffusion on the nanoparticles of a Jeffrey fluid with a magnetic field effect the process of containing waves in a three-dimensional rectangular porous medium canal. Using the HPM to solve the nonlinear and coupled partial differential equations. Numerical results were obtained for temperature distribution, nanoparticles concentration, velocity, pressure rise, pressure gradient, friction force and stream function. Through the graphs, it was found that the velocity of fluid rises with the increase of a mean rate of volume flow and a magnetic parameter, while the velocity goes down with the increasing a Darcy number and lateral walls. Also, t

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 30 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Communicable Diseases
Correlation of Uropathogenic Escherichia coli Harbouring pap Operon with IL-6 and TLR-4 Serum Levels and Other Biomarkers inDiabetic Mellitus Patients
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