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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Comparative Study of a Moving Bed Biofilm Reactor and Bio-shaft Technology for a Wastewater Treatment Process: A review
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In addition to the primary treatment, biological treatment is used to reduce inorganic and organic components in the wastewater. The separation of biomass from treated wastewater is usually important to meet the effluent disposal requirements, so the MBBR system has been one of the most important modern technologies that use plastic tankers to transport biomass with wastewater, which works in pure biofilm, at low concentrations of suspended solids. However, biological treatment has been developed using the active sludge mixing process with MBBR. Turbo4bio was established as a sustainable and cost-effective solution for wastewater treatment plants in the early 1990s and ran on minimal sludge, and is easy to maintain. This

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis and Theoretical Study of 4-(2-methyl-4-oxoquinazoline-3(4H)-yl) Benzoic acid with Some Transition Metal Ions
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New complexes of the type [ML2(H2O)2] ,[FeL2(H2O)Cl] and [VOL2] were M=Co(II),Ni(II) and Cu(II) ,L=4-(2-methyl-4-oxoquinazoline-3(4H)-yl) benzoic acid were synthesized and characterized by element analysis, magnetic susceptibility ,molar conductance ,FT-IR and UV-visible. The studies indicate that the L acts as doubly monodentate bridge for metal ions and form mononuclear complexes. The complexes are found to be octahedral except V(IV) complex is square pyrimde shape . The structural geometries of compounds were also suggested in gas phase by theoretical treatments, using Hyper chem-6 program for the molecular mechanics and semi-empirical calculations, addition heat of formation(?Hf ?) and binding energy (?Eb)for the free ligan

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Publication Date
Sat Aug 05 2017
Journal Name
Oriental Journal Of Chemistry
Adsorption of 4-Chlorophenol from Aqueous Solution onto Iraqi Bauxite and Surfactant–modified Iraqi Bauxite: Equilibrium, Kinetic, and Thermodynamic Studies
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Natural Bauxite (BXT) mineral clay was modified with a cationic surfactant (hexadecy ltrimethy lammonium bromide (BXT-HDTMA)) and characterized with different techniques: FTIR spectroscopy, X-ray powder diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The modified and natural bauxite (BXT) were used as adsorbents for the adsorption of 4- Chlorophenol (4-CP) from aqueous solutions. The adsorption study was carried out at different conditions and parameters: contact time, pH value, adsorbent dosage and ionic strength. The adsorption kinetic (described by a pseudo-first order and a pseudo-second order), equilibrium experimental data (analyzed by Langmuir, Freundlich and Temkin isotherm models) and thermodynamic parameters (change in s

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Publication Date
Fri May 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Real-Coded Genetic Algorithm with System Reduction and Restoration for Rapid and Reliable Power Flow Solution of Power Systems
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The paper presents a highly accurate power flow solution, reducing the possibility of ending at local minima, by using Real-Coded Genetic Algorithm (RCGA) with system reduction and restoration. The proposed method (RCGA) is modified to reduce the total computing time by reducing the system in size to that of the generator buses, which, for any realistic system, will be smaller in number, and the load buses are eliminated. Then solving the power flow problem for the generator buses only by real-coded GA to calculate the voltage phase angles, whereas the voltage magnitudes are specified resulted in reduced computation time for the solution. Then the system is restored by calculating the voltages of the load buses in terms

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 22 2019
Journal Name
Scientia Pharmaceutica
Design, Synthesis, and Docking Study of Acyl Thiourea Derivatives as Possible Histone Deacetylase Inhibitors with a Novel Zinc Binding Group
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Histone deacetylase inhibitors with zinc binding groups often exhibit drawbacks like non-selectivity or toxic effects. Thus, there are continuous efforts to modify the currently available inhibitors or to discover new derivatives to overcome these problems. One approach is to synthesize new compounds with novel zinc binding groups. The present study describes the utilization of acyl thiourea functionality, known to possess the ability to complex with metals, to be a novel zinc binding group incorporated into the designed histone deacetylase inhibitors. N-adipoyl monoanilide thiourea (4) and N-pimeloyl monoanilide thiourea (5) have been synthesized and characterized successfully. They showed inhibition of growth of human colon adenoc

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Preparation, Characterization & Biological activity for Some Iron(II) Complexes Containing Mixed Ligands (Benzilazine & Semicarbazone) & Study of Laser Effect on Them
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The research included preparation of new iron(II) complexes with mixed ligands including benzilazine(BA) and semicarbazone ligands {benzilsemicarbazone- BSCH or benzilbis(semicarba-zone)- BBSCH2 or salicylaldehydesemicarbazone- SSCH2 or benzoinsemicarbazone- B'SCH2}.by classical and microwave methods. The resulted complexes have been characterized using chemical and physical methods. The study suggested that the above ligands form ionic complexes having formulae [Fe(SCHi)(BA)(Cl)m](Cl)2-m {where SCH, BSCH, BBSCH2, SSCH¬2 or B'SCH2 ligands; m=1 or 2}. Hexacoordinated mononuclear complexes have been investigated by this study and having octahedral geometries. The effect of laser ray type visible region have been studied on solid ligands and

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Publication Date
Sat Nov 15 2025
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Determination of Ni (II) by Forming a New Complex N-(4-(dimethyl amino) benzylidene)-3, 5-Dinitrobenzohydrazide Nickel (II) Chloride
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In this research, the theme for employing a simple and sensitive method is to employ a new Schiff base ligand (N’-(4- (dimethyl amino) benzylidene)-3, 5-dinitrobenzohydrazide) to estimate Ni (II) to form orange complex (N-(4-(dimethyl amino) benzylidene)-3, 5-dinitrobenzohydrazide nickel (II) chloride) in acid medium (hydrochloric acid), it gives an absorption peak at the wavelength 485 nm. The preferred conditions were studied to form the complex and obtain the highest absorbance including concentration of Schiff base ligand, the best medium for complex formation, effects of addition sequence on complex formation, the effect of temperature on the absorbance of the complex formed, and the setting time of the formed complex. The obtained r

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 04 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Degradation of Brilliant Green by Using a bentonite Clay- Based Fe Nano Composite Film as a Heterogeneous Photo- Fenton Catalyst.
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This paper aims to study the chemical degradation of Brilliant Green in water via photo-Fenton (H2O2/Fe2+/UV) and Fenton (H2O2/Fe2+) reaction. Fe- B nano particles are applied as incrustation in the inner wall surface of reactor. The data form X- Ray diffraction (XRD) analysis that Fe- B nanocomposite catalyst consist mainly of SiO2 (quartz) and Fe2O3 (hematite) crystallites. B.G dye degradation is estimated to discover the catalytic action of Fe- B synthesized surface in the presence of UVC light and hydrogen peroxide. B.G dye solution with 10 ppm primary concentration is reduced by 99.9% under the later parameter 2ml H2O2, pH= 7, temperature =25°C within 10 min. It is clear that pH of the solution affects the photo- catalytic degradation

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 02 2020
Journal Name
International Journal Of Drug Delivery Technology
Synthesis, Antibacterial and Molecular Docking Study of Novel 2-Chloro-8-Methoxy-3-Aryl-[1,3] Benzoxazine Derivatives Using Vilsmeier Reagen
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Reducing of ethyl 4-((2-hydroxy-3-methoxybenzylidene)amino)benzoate (1) afford ethyl 4-((2-hydroxy-3-methoxybenzyl) amino)benzoate (2). Reaction of this compound with Vilsmeier reagent affords novel 2-chloro-[1,3] benzoxazine ring (3). The corresponding acid hydrazide of compound 3 was synthesized from reaction of compound (3) with hydrazine hydrate. Newly series of hydrazones(5a–i) were synthesized from reaction of acid hydrazide with various aryl aldehydes. Antibacterial activity of the hydrazones wassecerned utilizing gram-negative and gram-positive bacteria. Compound (5b) and (5c) exhibited significant antibacterial ability against both gram-negative and gram-positive bacteria, while the compounds(5a) showed mild antibacterial activit

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 20 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Design and Simulation of Closed Loop Proportional Integral (PI) Controlled Boost Converter and 3-phase Inverter for Photovoltaic (PV) Applications
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This research deals with the design and simulation of a solar power system consisting of a KC200GT solar panel, a closed loop boost converter and a three phase inverter by using Matlab / Simulink. The mathematical equations of the solar panel design are presented. The electrical characteristics of the panel are tested at the values ​​of 1000  for light radiation and 25 °C for temperature environment. The Proportional Integral (PI) controller is connected   as feedback with the Boost converter to obtain a stable output voltage by reducing the oscillations in the voltage to charge a battery connected to the output of the converter. Two methods (Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) and Zeigler- Nichols) are used for tuning

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