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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 30 2014
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Experimental Determination of the Elastic and Viscous Behavior of Polycarbonate Melts at Different Temperatures and Their Relationship to the Steady State Viscosity via the Cox-Merz Rule
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Rheological instrument is one of the basic analytical measurements for diagnosing the properties of polymers fluids to be used in any industry. In this research polycarbonate was chosen because of its importance in many areas and possesses several distinct properties.
Two kinds of rheometers devices were used at different range of temperatures from 220 ˚C-300 ˚C to characterize the rheological technique of melted polycarbonate (Makrolon 2805) by a combination of different investigating techniques. We compared the results of the linear (oscillatory) method with the non-linear (steady-state) method; the former method provided the storage and the loss modulus of melted polycarbonate, and presented the Cox-Merz model as well. One of the

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 30 2023
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Title: Arabic Manuscript, Concepts and Terms and Their Impact on Determining Its Historical beginnings and extension of its existence.
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Title: Arabic Manuscript, Concepts and Terms and Their Impact on Determining Its Historical beginnings and extension of its existence.

Researcher: Dr. Atallah Madb Hammadi Zubaie.

Bn the name of Allah Most Merciful

The interest in manuscripts and rules  of their investigation and dissemination appeared soon, and the speech in editing terms and concepts appeared in sooner time.  When looking at the classified books  in the Arab manuscripts , we find the books of the first generation  did not allude definition for this term  , but rather  focused on  the importance of manuscripts and their  existence locations, indexing, care, and verification rules. The  reason for this is that the science of Arabic manuscrip

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 15 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Experimental In vitro Study to Assess the Antibacte-rial Activity of Thymus vulgaris Oil on Streptococ-cus Sanguinis
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Background: The Streptococcus genus are the predominant bacteria in the mouth and the Streptococcus sanguinis is one of them which performing a primary function for expansion of dental biofilm. Gingival and periodontal disorders are caused by dental biofilm, today, there is a necessity to discover naturally presenting antibacterial compounds from herbs with less side effects as a substitutive to the commonly handled chlorohexidine. Thus, the purpose of this study was to assess the antibacterial activity of thymus vulgaris oil on Streptococcus sanguinis bacteria In vitro. Materials and Methods: Human supragingival plaque samples were taken from 10 subjects, then morphological and microscopical examination, bioch

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
The effect of intense special exercises to rehabilitate second-degree external collateral ligament tear in young handball players
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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
The effect of ER: YAG laser on enamel resistance to caries during orthodontic treatment: An in vitro study
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Background: One common undesirable side effect of orthodontic treatment with fixed appliances is the development of incipient caries lesions around brackets, particularly in patients with poor oral hygiene. Different methods have been used to prevent demineralization; the recent effort to improve the resistance against the demineralization is by the application of lasers. Materials and method: Thirty human premolars extracted for orthodontic purposes were used to test the effect of two energy level of ER-YAG laser on enamel resistance to demineralization. The brackets were bonded on the teeth and all the labial surface excluding 2 mm area gingival to the brackets were painted with acid resistance varnish. Three groups were generated. The fi

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 02 2019
Journal Name
World Heart Journal
Assessment of the Left Ventricular Mass (LVM) among Patients with Diabetes in Relation to Age Using Doppler Echocardiography
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Background: Diabetes mellitus a major factor that has adverse effects on the vascular system and the heart. It causes an increase in cardiac muscle thickness, resulting in decreased compliance and increased peripheral arterial stiffness. This study aims to assess the left ventricular mass (LVM) and left ventricular hemodynamic changes in diabetic patients measured by Doppler echocardiography. Patients and Methods: The study included 50 diabetic patients ranging in age between 25 and 80 years, (mean age: 54.1 ± 15.10, 19 males, 31 females) and 50 healthy subjects, aged 25 to 80 years (mean age: 48.52 ± 14.45, 11 males, 39 females). Doppler echocardiography was used to assess left ventricular function. The measurements included

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
The Saudi Dental Journal
The impact of salivary lactoperoxidase and histatin-5 on early childhood caries severity in relation to nutritional status
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Publication Date
Mon Aug 26 2024
Journal Name
Jbpml
Studying The Changes in Motility and Morphology on Human sperm after exposure to low doses of x-rays
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the energy that a radiation source emits as light (photons), electromagnetic waves, or particles is known as radiation. X-ray is one type of ionizing radiation that falls within the electromagnetic wave category of short wavelengths. Because of their short wavelength. X-ray is a type of ionizing radiation that is used in a constantly growing number of diagnostic procedures. X-ray diagnostic imaging has been employed in the medical field for more than a century(Hariyoto et al., 2020). Radiation has advantages for human health, but there is also a risk. the impacts of Radiation on Fertility it is an oligospermia, or a reduction in the number of sperm cells, which is already possible after radiation exposure of 0.15 mGy. It Leads to impede

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 28 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
The Effect of Using a Teaching Aid on Learning Backswing to Handstand on Rings in Youth Artistic Gymnastics
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               The research aimed at designing a teaching aid for learning backswing into handstand as well as identifying its effect on learning skill performance. The researchers hypothesized statistical differences between pre and post-tests in favor of the research group. They used the experimental method on six (13 – 16) year–old Baghdad club gymnasts. The researchers used the one group design in which all players perform pretests followed by special tests on the teaching aid than are tested posttests. The researchers conclude that the teaching aid positively affected learning the skill as well as the teaching aid was very good and endured the performance of all gymnasts. The researcher recommended making simi

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 07 2021
Journal Name
Review Of International Geographical Education Online
Requirements of Formulating a National Strategy for Developing the Cybersecurity System in Iraq According to GCI.v4(2019) Index
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The present study aims to present a proposed realistic and comprehensive cyber strategy for the Communications Directorate for the next five years (2022-2026) based on the extent of application and documentation of cybersecurity measures in the Directorate and the scientific bases formulating the strategy. The present study is significant in that it provides an accurate diagnosis of the capabilities of the cyber directorate in terms of strengths and weaknesses in its internal environment and the opportunities and threats that surround it in the external environment, based on the results of the assessment of the reality of cybersecurity according to the global Cybersecurity index, which provides a strong basis for building its strategic dire

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