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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role Of The economic And External Factors In Selecting Aggregate Planning Alternatives For Workforce Case Study In Yarmouk Teaching Hospital
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The research aimed to achieve many objectives represented in two variables, which are the impacted factors and the aggregate planning alternatives of workforce in Educational Al- yarmouk Hospital , This research started from a problem focused on finding solutions to the demand’s  fluctuation  or the energy limitation while the study importance is emerged from diagnosis the suitable strategy and adopt the suitable alternatives due to their importance in meeting the demand for the health service submitted by the hospital .This study  based on choosing assumptions of connection relationship and the impact among the mentioned variables in the(surgery and internal diseases) departments. The research is dependent on ch

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 03 2017
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Construction and Operation of Solar Energy Dish for Water Heating
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Construction and operation of (2 m) parabolic solar dish for hot water application were illustrated. The heater was designed to supply hot water up to 100 oC using the clean solar thermal energy. The system includes the design and construction of solar tracking unit in order to increase system performance. Experimental test results, which obtained from clear and sunny day, refer to highly energy-conversion efficiency and promising a well-performed water heating system.

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 02 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Power Generation from Utilizing Thermal Energy of Hazardous Waste Incinerators
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A large amount of thermal energy is generated from burning hazardous chemical wastes, and the temperature of the flue gases in hazardous waste incinerators reaches up to (1200 °C). The flue gases are cooled to (40°C) and are treated before emission. This thermal energy can be utilized to produce electrical power by designing a system suitable for dangerous flue gases in the future depending on the results of much research about using a proto-type small steam power plant that uses safe fuel to study and develop the electricity generation process with water tube boiler which is manufactured experimentally with theoretical development for some of its parts which are inefficient in experimental work. The studied system gen

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 09 2020
Journal Name
Optoelectronics And Advanced Materials – Rapid Communications
Facile synthesis of Cu2FeSnSe4 nanoparticles for solar energy water splitting
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Well-dispersed Cu2FeSnSe4 (CFTSe) nanoparticles were first synthesized using the hot-injection method. The structure and phase purity of as-synthesized CFTSe nanoparticles were examined by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and Raman spectroscopy. Their morphological properties were characterized by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The average particle sizes of the nanoparticles were about 7-10 nm. The band gap of the as-synthesized CFTS nanoparticles was determined to be about 1.15 eV by ultraviolet-visible (UV-Vis) spectrophotometry. Photoelectrochemical characteristics of CFTSe nanoparticles were also studied, which indicated their potential application in solar energy water splitting.

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Two Stage Evaporative Cooling of Residential Building Using Geothermal Energy
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The weather of Iraq has longer summer season compared with other countries. The ambient temperature during this season reaches over 50 OC which makes the evaporative cooling system suitable for this climate. In present work, the two-stage evaporative cooling system is studied. The first stage is indirect evaporative cooling (IEC) represented by two heat exchangers with the groundwater flow rate (5 L/min). The second stage is direct evaporative cooling (DEC) which represents three pads with groundwater flow rates of (4.5 L/min). The experimental work was conducted in July, August, September, and October in Baghdad. Results showed that overall evaporative efficiency of the system (two coils with three pads each

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Treatment of Simulated Carwash Wastewater by Electrocoagulation with Sonic Energy
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Oily carwash wastewater is a high organic and chemical wastewater. This paper targeted to investigate a treatment to decrease the water consumption and contaminants in car-washing stations. Electrocoagulation combined with ultrasonic energy (Sono-Electrocoagulation) was suggested so that the carwash wastewater is treated to be reused. The effect of both the voltage and time of treatment on the removal of COD, turbidity, conductivity, and total dissolved solids (TDS) were studied at constant initial pH 7 and electrode distance 2 cm. The results showed the best results of removal COD, turbidity, TDS, and reduce electrical conductivity is when the voltage was 30 V and a treatment time of 90 minutes.

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 22 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Relationship of Communities of practice in adoption of, Strategic Change choices
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The research (Relationship of Communities of practice in adoption of, Strategic Change choices) aims to diagnose and interpretation of correlation nature between Communities of practice deportation (participation and spreading knowledge, confidence, social capital build) deportation strategic change choices (reengineering business process, business re-structuring, business innovation) in construction companies in the Iraqi Ministry of Construction and Housing, the research tested 4 construction companies working in investing sector in Iraq, the research applied on a sample of 102 persons who participated in Communities of practice distributed in several administrative levels (directors, division directors, projec

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 25 2018
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
War Reporters In Iraqi Satellite Channels And Its Role In Increasing Understanding Of The Audience Of The News .: Field Study For The Reporters And The Audiences In Baghdad For The Period From 1/07/2014 Till – 1/11/2014
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The importance of media coverage in the war remains dependent on many indicators for its success, the most important is to have qualified reporters who carry the war news professionally. The idea of this research is to determine the role played by war correspondents working on Iraqi satellite channels during the war against ISIS.
The researcher has chosen ( 40 ) reporters those who was able to contact them and prepared a questionnaire for them to study their situations. Also, he chose an intentional sample from Baghdad audience on condition they should be informed by the performance of the reporters in the satellite channels applying the hypotheses of the theory of depending upon media.
The most important results reached by the re

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 20 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Conceptual Service Level Agreement Mechanism to Minimize the SLA Violation with SLA Negotiation Process in Cloud Computing Environment
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Online service is used to be as Pay-Per-Use in Cloud computing. Service user need not be in a long time contract with cloud service providers. Service level agreements (SLAs) are understandings marked between a cloud service providers and others, for example, a service user, intermediary operator, or observing operators. Since cloud computing is an ongoing technology giving numerous services to basic business applications and adaptable systems to manage online agreements are significant. SLA maintains the quality-of-service to the cloud user. If service provider fails to maintain the required service SLA is considered to be SLA violated. The main aim is to minimize the SLA violations for maintain the QoS of their cloud users. In this res

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluation the performance efficiency of the Public Manufacturing Sector in Iraq for the Period (2000-2009)
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The industrial production sector has an important role in the national economy of the advanced countries as well as the developing ones to get higher levels for their economy . We in Iraq , just like most of the develpoing countries , our economy still suffers of great shortage in this active sector in spite of the repeated statements about the desire of activating the contribution of this sector in the national economy . The industrial sector in Iraq suffers in general of many problems , especially the public industrial sector (manufacturing) . These problems have been  existed because of the unnatural conditions that Iraq has passed during the previous decades especially in the political and security sides . which reflecte

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