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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
A Comparative Reservoir Study of Zubair and Nahr Umr Formations in Subba Oilfield, Southern Iraq
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The lower Cretaceous sandstones of Zubair and Nahr Umr formations are the main producing reservoirs in Subba oilfield in southern Iraq. Key differences in their petrophysical and depositional attributes exist affecting their reservoir characteristics. The evaluation of well logs and core porosity-permeability data show better reservoir properties in Nahr Formation. The Litho-saturation logs indicate greater thickness of oil-saturated reservoir units for Nahr Unr Formation associated with lower values of shale volume, and higher values of effective porosity. In addition, higher values of permeability for Nahr Umr Formation is suggested by applying porosity-irreducible water saturation cross plot. The reducing reservoir quality of Zub

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 25 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
3D Seismic Structural and Stratigraphy Study of Shuaiba Formation in Kumait Oil Field-Southern Iraq
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The Kumait Oil field was interpreted using 3-D seismic data from Oil Exploration company. The Shuaiba Formation (Cretaceous Age) reflector is detected.Structural map of formation is prepared to obtain the location and direction of  the sedimentary basin and shoreline. Depth maps was drawn depending on the structural interpretation of  the picked reflector and show several structural feature as closures.The seismic interpretation of the area approves the presence of some stratigraphic features in the studied formation. Some distributary mound and flatspot were observed within the study area, but they are not continuous due to the tectonic effects. These activity elements give reasonable explanation for the hydrocarbon distributi

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Measurement and Analysis of Natural Radioactive Elements in Salty Sediments from Central and Southern Iraq
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Purification of fifteen NaCl samples from natural and different area in the middle and south of Iraq are prepared  and studied the structural characteristics of samples by powder X-ray diffraction analysis at 𝛌=1.542Ã…. The present work considered the specific activities of naturally occurring radioactive materials in salt samples, which are measured and analyzed using high resolution HPGe system. Also, the radiological parameters have been considered in this work. The average specific concentration (in Bq.kg-1) of the salt samples is found 16.864.92 for 226Ra, 5.972.05 for 232Th and 9.852.8 for 40K, respectively, which are below the national levels, 40Bq.kg-1, 30Bq.k

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of strategic approach in the effectiveness of small and medium Enterprises in Iraq
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The purpose of this research highlight the achievement of the effectiveness of small and medium enterprises dimensions and conformable to analyze the relationship between business strategies and human resources management strategies , and launched search of a dilemma thought provoking fundamental questions revolve around the search is the lack of appropriate strategies in these enterprises to help them continuity and permanence in business and markets , as these enterprises lack the human resources management strategies appropriate , as well as business strategies that make them withstand the changes in the market environment is changing and volatile . It was to

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of industry specialization of audit companies in detecting fraud in the financial statement
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Abstract:

The aim of the research is to demonstrate the impact of the professional specialization of the audit companies in the detection of fraud in the financial statements of the economic units listed in the Iraqi market for securities for the period 2014-2015 through the application of the model (Carcello) to test the hypothesis of research on the impact of professional specialization of audit companies in the detection of fraud in lists The effect of the variables was revealed through the use of statistical models of logistic regression model and correlation coefficient. After testing the hypotheses of the research, a number of conclusions were reached. The most important was the existence of a signi

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Determination Of The Efficient Production Plans For Al-Shaheed Public Company By Using Tatget Motad Model Under Risk And Uncertainty
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The research aims to derive the efficient industrial plans for Al – shaheed public company under risk by using Target MOTAD as a linear alternative  model for the quadratic programming models.

The results showed that there had been a sort of (trade- off) between risk and the expected gross margins. And if the studied company strives to get high gross margin, it should tolerate risk and vice versa. So the management  of Al- Shaheed Company to be invited to apply the suitable procedures in the production process, in order to get efficient plans that improves it's  performance .

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 14 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Using Geophysical Well Logs in Studying Reservoir Properties of Zubair Formation in Luhais Oil Field, Southern Iraq
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The characterizations of reservoir require reliable knowledge of certain fundamental reservoir properties. Log measurements can define or at least infer these properties: resistivity, porosity, shale volume, lithology, and water, oil, or gas saturation and permeability. The current study represents evaluation of petrophysical properties in well LU-12 for Zubair Formation in Luhais Oil Field, southern Iraq. The petrophysical evaluation was based on geophysical well logs data to delineate the reservoir characteristics of Zubair Formation. The available geophysical well logs such as (sonic, density, neutron, gamma ray, SP, and resistivity logs) are digitized using the Didger software. The environmental corrections and petrophysical paramete

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 31 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Porosity Prediction from Seismic Inversion for Yamama Formation in (Abu-Amoud) Oil Field in Southern of Iraq
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The study is an attempt to predict reservoir characterization by improving the estimation of petro-physical properties (porosity), through integration of wells information and 3D seismic data in early cretaceous carbonate reservoir Yamama Formation of (Abu-Amoud) field in southern part of Iraq. Seismic inversion (MBI) was used on post- stack 3 dimensions seismic data to estimate the values of P-acoustic impedance of which the distribution of porosity values was estimated through Yamama Formation in the study area. EMERGE module on the Hampson Russel software was applied to create a relationship between inverted seismic data and well data at well location to construct a perception about the distribution of porosity on the level of all uni

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
THE ROLE OF ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE IN ORGANIZATIONAL CITIZENSHIP BEHAVIOR (Search in the Integrity Commission)
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This research sought to detect the level of organizational culture prevailing in the Integrity Commission as well as the level of the organizational citizenship behavior of staff of the Commission and the impact of organizational culture in these behaviors. To achieve the objectives of the research and test the validity of hypotheses have been used questionnaire derived from measurements ready modern researchers foreigners have been adapted to suit the Iraqi environment, have been distributed  (189) questionnaire on the number of employees from the Integrity Commission, which represented the research sample where the research community has a number is (1365) employees in the Baghdad was the use of a number of statistical met

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Impact of knowledge Workers in Organizational Excellence Field research in a number of the Iraqi industrial companies
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The Knowledge Workers is The Largest And Most Powerful Resource Of The Organizational Excellence it is A Precious  Treasure, Therefore Find Organizations at present is looking for them and seek to invest their ideas For achieving excellence, creativity and access to the excellence Organizational , As a result of their importance in terms of engagement and influence in the success or failure of the as an organizational Of The Research is Measuring The Correlation And  Impact Between Knowledge Workers And Organizational Excellence in Sample Of Companies Iraqi Industrial By Standing The Dimensions Of Knowledge Workers ( Characteristics , Skills , Roles , Competencies ) And

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