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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Environmental Assessment of Al-Hammar Marsh Sediments, Southern Iraq
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Concentrations and distribution of major, minor, and trace elements were
studied in thirteen sediment samples from Al-Hammar Marsh.
Multivariate statistical techniques such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA)
and Agglomerative Hierarchal Cluster Analysis (AHCA) as well as pollution
analysis such as Enrichment Factor (EF) were used to process the data and identify
the possible sources of elemental constituents in sediment samples.Results of
chemical analysis revealed that Major element mean concentrations were in the
order of Ca> Si> K> Mg> and minor elements were in the order of Al> Fe>S>Cl>
Ti> P>Mn> Sr> N and trace elements were in the order of Cr> Ni> Zr>V>Zn&gt

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 24 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Analysis of Burial History for Mesopotamian basin, southern Iraq
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In this study, different oil fields in Mesopotamian basin, southern Iraq (Siba, Zubair, Nahr - Umr, Majnoon, Halfaya, Kumait, and Amara) were selected for studying burial history. PetroMod software 1D was used for basin constructing and to evaluate burial history of the basin. Results showed that in the upper Jurassic to the Recent, Mesopotamian Basin exhibited a complex subsidence history over a period of about 152 Ma.There are different periods of subsidence: high, moderate, and slow. High subsidence occurred at upper Jurassic- mid Cretaceous and at Miocene due to Tectonic subsidence. Slow subsidence occurred at upper Cretaceous and moderate subsidence at Paleogene. In the upper Jurassic, rapid subsidence is driven under the effect of

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2020
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Study for the Informal Settlement Supposed to Be Distributed by the Iraq Government for Poor People in Baghdad City - Republic of Iraq
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This paper set forth the spatial suitability of the informal settlement supposed to be distributed by the Iraqis government to poor people. The Iraqi government identified 9 locations of informal settlement in Baghdad city and acceptance it as a reality as a help for them to getting home. In this paper I discovered the suitability of those locations which one will be suitable more than others for living. The analysis process was applied using the GIS environment – spatial analysis. According to the results, It has been identified as the most important measures to identify which one of these areas suitable for development for housing by using some criteria (Distance from the city center, Proximity from transport routes, Proximity of high v

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process FEAHP to Prioritize The Evaluation of The Main and Subsidiary Criteria in B2B Industrial Market Sectors – Applied Research
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The research aims to define the main and subsidiary criteria for evaluating the industrial market sectors and proposing a model for arranging these criteria according to priority and knowing the highest criteria in terms of relative importance in the General Company for Automobile Trade and Machinery, and for the purpose of establishing this model, experiences in the concerned company were approved, and this study proposes a multi-criteria decision model According to the FEAHP, the expanded fuzzy hierarchical analysis method enables the commercial company to develop clear strategic policies on which the company’s management system depends on determining criteria for evaluating and selecting market sectors and making appropriate

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 06 2025
Journal Name
Journal Mustansiriyah Of Sports Science
The Impact of an Educational Curriculum according to the Five-year Learning Cycle on Some Offensive Skills in Basketball for Female Students
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Modern trends have appeared recently in educational thought that call for the achievement of the outcomes of the educational process. Some of these trends are the development of individual thinking skills, considering the individual differences, and learning basic skills. The five-year learning cycle is one of these models. It is called as five-year learning cycle because it passes through five stages. These five stages are: (operate - discover - clarify - expand – Evaluate), which make the learner as the main axis for activating thinking processes. This can be done by organizing study materials through research, investigation, and identifying concepts by himself, as in learning sports skills that depend on motor performance and teamwork,

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 29 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Calculating the variations of sunrise, sunset and day length times for Baghdad city.With comparison to different regions of the world in year 2019
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     The sunrise, sunset, and day length times for Baghdad (Latitude =33.34º N, Longitude =44.43º E) were calculated with high accuracy on a daily basis during 2019. The results showed that the earliest time of sunrise in Baghdad was at 4h: 53m from 5 Jun. to 20 Jun while the latest was at 7h: 07m from 5 Jan. to 11 Jan. The earliest time of sunset in Baghdad was at16 h: 55m from 30 Nov. to 10 Dec. whereas the latest was at 19h: 16m from 25 Jun. to 5 Jul. The minimum period of day length in Baghdad was 9h: 57m) in 17 Dec. whereas the maximum period was 14h: 22m) in 20 Jun. Day length

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 03 2013
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The ability of Pisum sativum plant to use tricalcium super phosphate (TSP) in the presence and absence of mycorrhizal fungi under field conditions
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Efficiency of Pisum sativum plants in using tricalcium super phosphate (TSP) in presence and absence of mycorrhizal fungi was evaluated in the field experiment in College of Science / Al-Mustansiriyah University. The experiment comprised of (6) treatments prepared from the interaction of two levels of inoculation [non-inoculation with fungus F0 and inoculation with Glomus mosseae fungus (F1)]. And three levels of phosphorus: 0,20,40 Kg P/ha. The experimental size was (1x2)m. Irrigation and hand-weeding were done when needed. The following plant measurements were recorded: (Shoots dry weight, concentration of N and P% in addition to percentage of root infection with mycorrhizal fungi at flowering 50% of plants. The re

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2024
Journal Name
Studies In Systems, Decision And Control
The Effect of Using an Accounting Information System Based on Artificial Intelligence in Detecting Earnings Management to Enhance the Sustainability of Economic Units
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This research aims to clarify the importance of an accounting information system that uses artificial intelligence to detect earnings manipulation. The research problem stems from the widespread manipulation of earning in economic entities, especially at the local level, exacerbated by the high financial and administrative corruption rates in Iraq due to fraudulent accounting practices. Since earning manipulation involves intentional fraudulent acts, it is necessary to implement preventive measures to detect and deter such practices. The main hypothesis of the research assumes that an accounting information system based on artificial intelligence cannot effectively detect the manipulation of profits in Iraqi economic entities. The researche

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 25 1993
Journal Name
كلية العلوم. / جامعة بغداد
ISOLATION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF EXTREMELY HALOPHILIC BACTERIA FROM SADDAM RIVER REGIONS AND THE RULE OF MEMBRANE PROTEINS IN THE RESISTANCE TO HIGH SALINITY
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This study included isolation and characterization of extremely halophilic bacteria from Al-Massab Al-Aam region in South of Iraq Fifty isolates were identified by using numerical taxonomy 40 strains belonged to the genus Halobacterium which inclucted Hb. halobium Hb. cutirubrum Hb. salinarium Hb. saccharovorum Hb. valismortis and Hb. volcanii. Ten strains belonged to the genus Halococcus which included Hc. morrhuae Hc. saccharolyticus. Growth curves were sensitive mutants determined for wild type and salt Generation time in logarthmic phase was measured and found to be (10.37 2hr 7 0.59) for Hb. salinarium / 18 (6.490 hr 0.24) for Hb. cutirubrum / 32, (6.700 hr + 0.488) for Hb. valismortis / 20, (11.243 hr + 0.96) for Hb. volcanii / 7. (7

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 29 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Calculating the variations of sunrise, sunset and day length times for Baghdad city.With comparison to different regions of the world in year 2019
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     The sunrise, sunset, and day length times for Baghdad (Latitude =33.34º N, Longitude =44.43º E) were calculated with high accuracy on a daily basis during 2019. The results showed that the earliest time of sunrise in Baghdad was at 4h: 53m from 5 Jun. to 20 Jun while the latest was at 7h: 07m from 5 Jan. to 11 Jan. The earliest time of sunset in Baghdad was at16 h: 55m from 30 Nov. to 10 Dec. whereas the latest was at 19h: 16m from 25 Jun. to 5 Jul. The minimum period of day length in Baghdad was 9h: 57m) in 17 Dec. whereas the maximum period was 14h: 22m) in 20 Jun. Day length was calculated and compared among regions of different latitudes(0, 15, 30, 45 and 60 north).

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