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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 28 2023
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Self and the Other in the Dogmatic Discourse: The Cognitive and Emotional Structure of the Authoritarian and Destructive Personality
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The philosopher and social psychologist Erich Fromm (1900-1980), in his book "Escape from Freedom" highlighted the distinction between the "I" of the authoritarian personality and the "I" of the destructive personality based on their stance towards "the other." The former (the authoritarian self) relies on a submissive, enslaving formula, where the "I" is the master/dominator/controller/strong, while "the other" is the servant/submissive/controlled/weak, essential for perpetuating this formula. In contrast, the latter (the destructive self) relies on an annihilating, negating formula, where the "I" is existence/killer/destroyer/pe

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
STUDY THE CONTAMINATION OF WATER BOTTLES WITH SOME CHEMICALS DUE TO HEAT EXPOSURE: STUDY THE CONTAMINATION OF WATER BOTTLES WITH SOME CHEMICALS DUE TO HEAT EXPOSURE
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The transfer of chemical pollutants from bottled water into water due to heat, sunlight and poor storage is one of the most serious threats to human health around the world, the objective of this study was to estimate the pH value and the transport of heavy metals from plastic bottles to water, for this purpose, 30 bottles of water for 10 local brands were collected and divided into three groups, the first was left at room temperature 25°C, The second was placed in a heat oven at 25°C and the third in another oven at 50°C for two weeks. The results showed significant differences at (P<0.05) between water samples, pH value and concentrations of heavy metals (Sb, Pb, Ni, Cu, Cr, Cd and Fe) we

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Publication Date
Sat May 02 2020
Journal Name
Karbala Journal Of Physical Education Sciences
The effect of using a designed device to develop the technical performance of the descending landing skill facing with half a cycle on the parallel device of the technical men&#39;s
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AS Salman, SK Hameed…, Karbala Journal of Physical Education Sciences, 2020

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Test the effectiveness of transactional and transformational leadership in the Egyptian Environment
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       The present study aims to test a range of hypotheses about the effectiveness of each of the theory of transactional leadership, and the theory of transformational leadership in the Egyptian environment, and to identify any of them are better able to predict the effectiveness of leadership. And after the effect will be to identify the quality of the relationship between the leader and the subordinate in leadership , and what is the role of transformational leadership dimensions influencing the effectiveness of leadership. The field study was conducted on a sample of companies' public and private sector and the government in Egypt. The results of the study resulted in experimental that transacti

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
MEASURING THE EFFECTOF VISUAL MEDIA IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TOURISM SERVICE SECTOR: MEASURING THE EFFECTOF VISUAL MEDIA IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TOURISM SERVICE SECTOR
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The research aims at measuring the impact of visual media on the development of the tourism services sector, which is a field study for the public. It aims at determining the impact of visual media on tourism sector development, clarifying the concept of visual media and its functions and studying the role of media in the development of tourism culture among the public. For a sample of the employees of the University of Baghdad, consisting of (120) male and female. A questionnaire was prepared for this purpose consisting of (21) questions distributed to the sample. The data were analyzed and the hypotheses were tested using the statistical program spss to unload the results and calculate the frequencies, percentages and correlati

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Interactive Relationship between the Formation Elements and their Implications in the Structure of the Television Image
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The image of television dominates the cognitive and artistic motivations. It is the formulation of ideas and visions along with its documentary ability. It is the main element in television work as it is a story that is narrated in pictures. Therefore, attention to image building is a major point of gravity in the work structure as a whole. On the image is the element carrying all aesthetic and expressive values of news and information directly to the hints that work to stimulate and stir the imagination of the recipient to evoke mental images added to the visual images to deepen the meanings.
All visual arts carry elements and components that follow in a particular pattern to give special meanings and specific connotations. However,

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of fun in the workplace In achieving internal marketing (Applied research)
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    The research aims to study the impact of the dimensions of fun in the workplace in achieving internal marketing And knowing the type of relationships That link the dimensions of fun in the workplace With each other, None of the researchers mentioned (to the researcher's knowledge) the link between fun in the workplace and internal marketing From this point of view the main objective is determined, which is to study the effect of fun in the workplace in internal marketing, The research was conducted at Al Salam Public Company for Communications and Information Technology The research community was represented by (308) employees of the aforementioned company , Where a random sample was selected tha

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The role of religious references in the reformation process in Iraq after 2003
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The Shiite religious authority in Iraq has played an active and vital role over its long history in promoting values of tolerance, rejecting extremism, advocating unity and confronting external challenges. This role has increased significantly after 2003 as a result of the great challenges that have passed in Iraq. Despite its clear policy of non-interference in political matters, except in cases of necessity, but the great role it played in maintaining national unity and advocating the rejection of extremism and sectarianism has made it a necessary need in Iraq to confront any deviations, dispersions or threats that affect society and the state. Therefore, its role in the process of reform was prominent on the political level by calling

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 14 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of housing finance policies in reducing the housing crisis in Iraq
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Finance is considered as an important and essential element when developing any housing policy which has a basic role creation of channels and effective means of saving money for individuals and institutions involved in the construction of housing units , and in particular that there is a deficit of residential dramatically in Iraq offset by a significant decline in the rates of construction housing and the accumulation of housing need in the coming years , the importance lies of the subject in creating mechanism for financing this sector and the impact of such a mechanism in solving the problem of the deficit number of housing units, through studying the experiences of some countries in the policies of housing finance to take advantage

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 23 2019
Journal Name
Arma
Safe Mud Weight Window Determination: A Case Study from Southern Iraq
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ABSTRACT:. The Lower Cretaceous Zubair formation is comprised of sandstones intercalated with shale sequences. The main challenges that were encountered while drilling into this formation included severe wellbore instability-related issues across the weaker formations overlaying the reservoir section (pay zone). These issues have a significant impact on well costs and timeline. In this paper, a comprehensive geomechanical study was carried out to understand the causes of the wellbore failure and to improve drilling design and drilling performance on further development wells in the field. Failure criteria known as Mogi-Coulomb was used to determine an operating mud weight window required for safe drilling. The accuracy of the geomechanical

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