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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Employment cost management tools in the fast-track method Of the constructionindustries for the purpose of rationalizing costs: An applied research in the Shatt al-Diwaniya transference project General Authority for projects of irrigation and reclamation
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The important factor in the success of construction projects is its ability to objective estimate of the cost of the project and adapt to the changes of the external environment, which is affected by a lot of elements and the requirements of the competitive environment. The faces of those projects are several problems in order to achieve particular goals. To overcome these difficulties has been the development of research in the last two decades and turn the focus on the role of the cost of project management, by providing information and assist management in planning and control of the budget among the main elements of the project, namely, (time-cost-quality),The research aims at the possibility of developing and implementing mechanisms

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
International Journal Of Science And Research
Precise Solutions of a Viscoelastic Fluid Flow in an Annular Pipe under an Impulsive Pressure with the Fractional Generalized Burgers' Model
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This paper deals with an analytical study of the flow of an incompressible generalized Burgers’ fluid (GBF) in an annular pipe. We discussed in this problem the flow induced by an impulsive pressure gradient and compare the results with flow due to a constant pressure gradient. Analytic solutions for velocity is earned by using discrete Laplace transform (DLT) of the sequential fractional derivatives (FD) and finite Hankel transform (FHT). The influences of different parameters are analyzed on a velocity distribution characteristics and a comparison between two cases is also presented, and discussed in details. Eventually, the figures are plotted to exhibit these effects.

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Two – Dimensional Mathematical Model to Study Erosion Problem of Tigris River Banks at Nu’maniyah
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The high and low water levels in Tigris River threaten the banks of the river. The study area is located on the main stream of Tigris River at Nu’maniyah City and the length of the considered reach is 5.4 km, especially the region from 400 m upstream Nu’maniyah Bridge and downstream of the bridge up to 1250 mwhich increased the risk ofthe problemthat itheading towardsthe streetand causingdanger tonearbyareas.

The aim of this research is to identify the reason of slope collapse and find proper treatments for erosion problem in the river banks with the least cost. The modeling approach consisted of several steps, the first of which  is by using “mini” JET (Jet Erosion Test) d

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 28 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Mathematics And System Science
Simulating Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm to Estimate Likelihood Function of ARMA(1, 1) Model
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Publication Date
Thu Jan 25 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Current Engineering And Technology
Model-Based Design of Piezoelectric Patches used to Repair Damaged Beams under Static Load
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Static loads exposing to mechanical components can cause cracks, which are lead to form stress concentration regions causing the failure of structure. Generally, from 80% to 90% of structure failure is due to initiation of the cracks. Therefore, it is necessary to repair the crack and reduce its effect on the structure where the effect of the crack is modelled as an additional flexibility to the structure. In the last few years, piezoelectric materials have been considered as one of the most favourable repairing techniques. The piezoelectric material converts the applied voltage on it to a bending moment to counter the bending moment caused by the external load on the beam at the crack location. In this study, the design of the piez

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 05 2020
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Frustrations of sectarian coexistence and mechanisms to activate peaceful coexistence: Iraq as a model
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Abstract The study aimed at demonstrating the reality of sectarian coexistence in Iraq, which was characterized by the tolerance and coercion caused by the successive government policies to govern Iraq and to this day. The study was based on the hypothesis that coexistence between Islamic sects in Iraq can be achieved as long as there are strong bonds linking its components, and these bonds can produce coexistence between the sects based on peace. The study concluded that the hypothesis is correct, in addition to drawing a set of observations aimed at identifying weaknesses for advancing them through the adoption of mechanisms that address these weaknesses to yield towards a genuine peaceful coexistence among Islamic sects in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 22 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Mehar method to change fuzzy cost of fuzzy linear model with practical application
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  Many production companies suffers from big losses because of  high production cost and low profits for several reasons, including raw materials high prices and no taxes impose on imported goods also consumer protection law deactivation and national product and customs law, so most of consumers buy imported goods because it is characterized by modern specifications and low prices.

  The production company also suffers from uncertainty in the cost, volume of production, sales, and availability of raw materials and workers number because they vary according to the seasons of the year.

  I had adopted in this research fuzzy linear program model with fuzzy figures

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 31 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Application of data content analysis (DEA) technology to evaluate performance efficiency: applied research in the General Tax Authority
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The aim of the research is to use the data content analysis technique (DEA) in evaluating the efficiency of the performance of the eight branches of the General Tax Authority, located in Baghdad, represented by Karrada, Karkh parties, Karkh Center, Dora, Bayaa, Kadhimiya, New Baghdad, Rusafa according to the determination of the inputs represented by the number of non-accountable taxpayers and according to the categories professions and commercial business, deduction, transfer of property ownership, real estate and tenders, In addition to determining the outputs according to the checklist that contains nine dimensions to assess the efficiency of the performance of the investigated branches by investing their available resources T

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Thermodynamic Investigation of Partially Purified Paraoxonase in the Sera of Healthy Pregnant Women Compared to Women with Pregnancy Complication
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The thermodynamic constanting of “crude and partially purified” Paraxonase(PON) was evaluated in the sera of “healthy and ectopic” pregnant women in order to characterize the reaction of PON with diethyl para-nitro phenyl phosphate as substrate.This study was performed on (17) women with ectopic pregnancy (EP) whose age between (25-55) years  and (25) normal pregnant women with  a mean age of (25 -55) years as  a control group . Samples were collected from the Medical City, AL-Yarmook and Fatema AL-Zahraa hospitals during the period from Sep.2011 to April 2012.The study included the evaluation  of “paraxonase activity, specific activity and total protein” in the (crude and partially purified) sera of EP pa

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Job satisfaction and its relation to the effectiveness of performance: Applied research on a sample of employees in the Federal board of supreme Audit
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The research aimed to study the job satisfaction of the staff of the Federal board of supreme Audit and its relation to the effectiveness of their performance, The questionnaire was adopted as a main tool in the collection of data and information from a random sample of (54) employees of the Federal board of supreme Audit. In light of this, the data were collected and analyzed and the hypotheses were tested using the statistical program (SPSS).

The researchers reached a number of conclusions, the most important of which were: (1) the respondents' response to the variables of job satisfaction and the effectiveness of the performance were medium; (2) there was a significant relationship between job satisfaction and performance effe

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