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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 31 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Use Conventional and Statistical Methods for Porosity Estimating in Carbonate Reservoir in Southern Iraq, Case Study
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Porosity is important because it reflects the presence of oil reserves. Hence, the number of underground reserves and a direct influence on the essential petrophysical parameters, such as permeability and saturation, are related to connected pores. Also, the selection of perforation interval and recommended drilling additional infill wells. For the estimation two distinct methods are used to obtain the results: the first method is based on conventional equations that utilize porosity logs. In contrast, the second approach relies on statistical methods based on making matrices dependent on rock and fluid composition and solving the equations (matrices) instantaneously. In which records have entered as equations, and the matrix is sol

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 23 2019
Journal Name
Modeling Earth Systems And Environment
Facies architecture and stratigraphic sequence of Zubair Formation in Majnoon and Suba oil fields, Southern Iraq
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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Laboratory Testing and Evaluating of Shale Interaction with Mud for Tanuma Shale formation in Southern Iraq
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   Rock failure during drilling is an important problem to be solved in petroleum technology. one of the most causes of rock failure is shale chemical interaction with drilling fluids. This interaction is changing the shale strength as well as its pore pressure relatively near the wellbore wall. In several oilfields in southern Iraq, drilling through the Tanuma formation is known as the most challenging operation due to its unstable behavior. Understanding the chemical reactions between shale and drilling fluid is determined by examining the features of shale and its behavior with drilling mud. Chemical interactions must be mitigated by the selection of suitable drilling mud with effective chemical additives. This study is describing t

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 28 2023
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Role of Television News Headlines in Attracting Viewers to News Bulletins: A Field Study from 01/01/2023 to 31/03/2023
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The objective of this study is to ascertain the pivotal role of headlines in captivating viewers' attention toward news bulletins. Additionally, it aims to explore the factors that contribute to the correlation between headlines and the public's acceptance or rejection of the meticulously crafted news articles presented through these bulletins. The study delves into the mechanisms employed in writing and editing headlines, focusing on their style, expert composition, and intriguing nature. These factors inevitably influence the level of acceptance and engagement of the viewership with the news articles disseminated via the news bulletins. Employing a descriptive methodology, the researcher distributed 200 question

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
The treatment of the output of Marquez novels in the international cinema … Love in the time of cholera: منهل باسم سعيد الطاهر
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Gabriel Garcia Marquez, the Nobel laureate of literature in 1982, is one of the most famous Latin American writers who have been distinguished by the magic of realism. We can say the months in the world and he is almost the most controversial for many reasons and for these reasons he did not accept that his novels turn into movies Marquez agreed to turn one of his most important and most beautiful novels, "Love in the Time of Cholera," which he wrote in 1985 and agreed to convert to a film in 2006 after the novel was bought by the author for $ 3 million. Mike Noel to bring out

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 11 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Experimental Estimation of Critical Buckling Velocities for Conservative Pipes Conveying Fluid
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Conservative pipes conveying fluid such as pinned-pinned (p-p), clamped–pinned (c-p) pipes and clamped-clamped (c-c) lose their stability by buckling at certain critical fluid velocities. In order to experimentally evaluate these velocities, high flow-rate pumps that demand complicated fluid circuits must be used.

     This paper studies a new experimental approach based on estimating the critical velocities from the measurement of several fundamental natural frequencies .In this approach low flow-rate pumps and simple fluid circuit can be used.

Experiments were carried out on two pipe models at three different boundary conditions. The results showed that the present approach is more accurate for est

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 15 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Prevalence and localization of the posterior superior alveolar artery in relation to the floor of the maxillary sinus and alveolar crest among sample of Iraqis using computed tomography
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Background: Posterior superior alveolar artery (PSAA) is branch of the maxillary artery. It usually supplies the lateral wall of the sinus and overlying membrane. Evaluation and awareness of the anatomy of maxillary sinus before surgery is crucial to avoid surgical complications. The aim of this study is to examine the prevalence, location of the (PSAA) in relation to the floor of the maxillary sinus and alveolar crest using computerized tomography (CT) scans. Materials and Methods: This study included 180 Iraqi subjects (99 males and 81 females) with age more than 16 years old. CT scans for (right and left) Maxillary sinuses were done for each patient. The information obtained was assessed in a coronal multi planar reconstructions images (

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Ebusiness And Egovernment Studies
THE ROLE OF ENTREPRENEURIAL ORIENTATION IN ACHIEVING STRATEGIC ENTREPRENEURSHIP WITH THE MEDIATING OF ORGANIZATIONAL AGILITY: AN ANALYTICAL STUDY ON SOME COMPANIES AFFILIATED TO THE IRAQI MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE
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Recently, there has been a notable surge in interest surrounding entrepreneurial orientation and strategic entrepreneurship. These concepts are particularly relevant due to their modern characteristics that aid in adapting to the environment. They also play a crucial role in improving production, service, and technological processes to sustain value, minimize competition, and drive ongoing enhancements, ultimately leading to a position of leadership within public companies. Therefore, the primary focus of this research was to examine the influence of entrepreneurial orientation on achieving strategic entrepreneurship. This influence is further mediated by the presence Iraqi Ministry of Agric

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role of Strategic Intelligence in Organizational Success Analytical research in the colleges of the University of Fallujah
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The current research aims to verify the role of strategic intelligence as an explanatory variable in organizational success as a respondent variable in the colleges of the University of Fallujah, the research community. (Dean, Associate Dean, Section Head, Division Officer, Unit Officer), The researcher used the questionnaire as the main tool to collect data that included (50) items, in addition to using personal interviews and field observations as aids in data collection. The researcher relied on statistical programs (SPSS V.25; Excel V (16) In the treatment and analysis of data through the use of the most appropriate statistical methods (arithmetic mean, standard deviation, difference coefficient, determinatio

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 07 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Extent of Academic Knowledge in the Colleges of Applied Sciences of the Areas of the National Learning Strategy 2040 in the Sultanate of Oman
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The study aims to identify the extent the academics in colleges of applied sciences are familiar with the themes of the national strategy of education 2040 in the Sultanate of Oman. The researchers used the descriptive approach, as well as they adopted a questionnaire with five dimensions as a tool for data collection, which was applied to (120) academics. The results showed that the academics of the applied colleges' familiarity with the National Strategy for Education 2040 in the Sultanate of Oman is average. The study also found that there were no statistically significant differences in the academics estimates of the extent of the Colleges of Applied Sciences academics’ familiarity with the themes of the National Education 2040 Str

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