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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Self-Efficacy and its Relation to the Cognitive Assessment for the Daily Disturbances for the University of Baghdad Students
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The current research tackles the self-efficacy and its relation to the cognitive assessment for the daily disturbances for the University of Baghdad students. Two criteria have been adopted to achieve the objectives of the research. The sample of this study consists of 200 male and female students who were chosen randomly. The data were analyzed statistically, revealing that the university students owned their own self-efficacy as well as a cognitive assessment for the daily disturbances and they recognized them as self-threatening. The results also indicated the existence of a prediction activity in the field of the cognitive assessment to the daily disturbances selection. In light of the acquired results, the study recommends the neces

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 15 2023
Journal Name
Al-academy
The composition of the fragmentary image of the actor's performance in the Iraqi theatrical show
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The theatrical image represents one of the tools of communication with the other to create a communicative language that is produced and transmitted by the actor and his body through the theatrical space to convey the meaning in all its forms and types. The actor is concerned with the composition and construction of these images. My girl, the image is fragmented and multiple and different. Therefore, based on the foregoing, the researcher has divided his research into four chapters, representing the (methodological framework). First, the research problem, which is manifested in the following question (what is the structure of the fragmented image of the actor's performance? The Iraqi playwright), and secondly: the importance of the resea

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluate the performance of the agricultural initiative in the application of the Agricultural Cooperative Bank.
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       This paper deals with the process of evaluating the performance of agricultural activity in Iraq and in particular the agricultural initiative launched by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, during the period from 2008 - 2011. Where it is possible to use criteria or indicators that are fabricated by a statement on the calendar and the results of which may be by comparing planned performance with actual performance or the evaluation of the actual performance of successive periods selected. With an emphasis on the agricultural initiative is subject to the evaluation process by implementing and destinations specialized loan funds its own projects as one of the agricultural lending. With the need to co

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Laboratory Testing and Evaluating of Shale Interaction with Mud for Tanuma Shale formation in Southern Iraq
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   Rock failure during drilling is an important problem to be solved in petroleum technology. one of the most causes of rock failure is shale chemical interaction with drilling fluids. This interaction is changing the shale strength as well as its pore pressure relatively near the wellbore wall. In several oilfields in southern Iraq, drilling through the Tanuma formation is known as the most challenging operation due to its unstable behavior. Understanding the chemical reactions between shale and drilling fluid is determined by examining the features of shale and its behavior with drilling mud. Chemical interactions must be mitigated by the selection of suitable drilling mud with effective chemical additives. This study is describing t

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 23 2019
Journal Name
Modeling Earth Systems And Environment
Facies architecture and stratigraphic sequence of Zubair Formation in Majnoon and Suba oil fields, Southern Iraq
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The impact of the strengths and weaknesses in Iraqi newspapers: The evolution of the consumer - the reader
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The first section of this research discussed  the manner of the research from many sides like the problem it faces, importance of it , its targets ,boundaries, the way to collect and get information's and its assumption.

When the second chapter discussed the press – manufacturing and the development ,importance and types of newspapers, also its merits and weaknesses.

The third chapter talked about the scientific side and how to choose an assumption for the research . as it talked also about the apparent honest and stability tests that help in analyzing the research until getting results and so the right assumption for  the research will be chosen.

And finally, the fourth chapter put highlight on the be

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 27 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The application of the dimensions of TQM and its impact in enhancing the satisfaction of the taxpayers: Applied Study in the General Commission for Taxes
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The concept of TQM is based on one of the concepts that combine administrative and innovative methods. The aim of the research is to demonstrate the dimensions of TQM in enhancing the satisfaction of the taxpayers through a survey of a sample of officials in the General Authority for Taxation and 50 officials. In the collection of data and information, and the results were analyzed using the SPSS program to find the most important compounds and factors in he method of analysis.

The research problem was represented by the non-application of the General Authority for Taxation to the entrances and modern practices in the administrative work. The results of some of the complications that accompany the tax accounting process, which af

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of political thinking on the decision maker in analyzing the strategic environment of the state (applied study in the Iraqi Ministry of Finance)
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The Political Thinking Regarded as an important element for the formulation of the stat, weather in its formation, the structure of it s entity, its political system and it s governmental instruments .The political thinking can not act without determined strategy, So they intend to work hard to formulate a railed strategy that make them able to determine its  directions to general issues.

   The Study aimed to solve the problem through the following question:

1- What are the levels of Political Thinking and Strategic Analysis in the financial ministry?

2- What are the relation ship between the dimensions of Political  T

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 12 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Energy band diagram of In2O3/ Si heterojunction
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Crystalline In2O3 Thin films have been prepared by flash evaporation. We have studied the crystal structure of as deposited at 303K and annealed at 523K using X-ray diffraction. The Hall Effect measurements confirmed that electrons were predominant charges in the conduction process (i.e n-type).It is found that the absorption coefficient of the prepared films decreases with increasing Ta. The d.c conductivity study showed that the conductivity increase with increasing Ta , whereas the activation energy decreases with increasing Ta. Also we study the barrier tunneling diode for In2O3/Si heterostructure grown by Flash evaporation technique. (capacitance-voltage C-V) spectroscopy measurements were performed at 303 K and at the annealing temper

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Publication Date
Wed May 15 2024
Journal Name
International Journal Of Religion
(The Importance of Knowledge and Work in Islamic Thought) A Study of the Stages of Spiritual Purification According to Imam Al-Ghazali
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Science occupies great importance in Islamic thought. Science and learning are considered an essential part of Islamic teachings, and this importance appears in several aspects,Among them is thatScience as a means of understanding religion :Science is a means of understanding the teachings of the Islamic religion. Islam encourages thinking and rational research to understand the Holy Quran and the Sunnah of the Prophet, enabling Muslims to direct their lives and actions in accordance with the directives of their religion,And also to encourageResearch :Islam encourages scientific research and the use of reason in understanding the nature of the universe and God’s signs in it. Muslims are encouraged to study the natural and social s

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