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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 12 2019
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Minimal sternotomy surgery in comparison to standard sternotomy in the coronary bypass Surgery
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Background Median sternotomy is the gold standard incision for most cardiac operations. However, with the advent of minimal invasive surgery, a new approach emerged in cardiac surgery named mini-sternotomy and has been successfully used to perform a variety of operations.

 The aim of this paper is to present our experience of using mini-sternotomy to harvest the left internal mammary artery (LIMA) for off-pump revascularization of the left anterior descending artery (LAD)

 Methodology Over a 2-year period (October 2012-October 2014), 100 patients underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) via conventional median sternotomy (CMS) (n=80) and mini-sternotomy (MS) (n=20). The

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 30 2023
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
The Oral Health Status in relation to Salivary Antimicrobial Peptide in Pregnant Women
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Background: Oral health is a mirror of general health. During pregnancy, oral health is affected by changes in saliva and oral hygiene measures which may lead to more dental caries.

Objective: Assess oral health status in relation to salivary antimicrobial peptides in pregnant women.

Subjects and Method: This cross sectional study was carried out in different primary health care centers in Rusafa sectors/ Baghdad city. The total sample included was 80 women (their  age range from 21-30). The study group consisted of 40 pregnant women: half of them were in the first trimester and  others were in third trimester, while the control group included 40 non-pregnant married fem

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Women in isolation in the play's marriage to Edward Albee Marriage Play (1987)
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Edward Albee's career extends to more than fifty years during which he has exposed different images of male and female protagonists  mostly within the same frame; domestic instability.  Albee's men and women are middle-class couples who find themselves entrapped in a meaningless world. Most, if not all, of Albee's men are detached from their wives due to existential problems or middle- age crises. Women, therefore find themselves obliged to sustain their husbands and marriages alone. Women in Albee's élan are cynical, frustrated, articulate as well as brave, strong and domineering.

    Marriage Play is one of Albee’s works that tackled such  image of these women. The play was comm

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Aware of the roots of the text in the arab heritage
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Text science presented a set of criteria to make the text essentially a project to create
texts and use. Me and means of cohesion script text scientists, two standard foundries and
knitting. Find this means their equivalent in the Arab rhetorical Heritage has been found, it
means foundries find Accompanying represented (link grammar in the classroom and link),
and referrals represented by (Baldmair, Ldefinition, and the name of the signal), and
deletion, and repetition, and presentation delays. As in the standard knitting it has confirmed
Albulagjun Arabs on the semantic consistency between the text components, as reflected in
the moral link in Chapter interfaces, as well as in moral coherence between parts of the te

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 06 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Human Resources Investment as an Introduction to improve the efficiency & activity of workers in E – Government
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The human resources are considered to be the main pillar of the organizations , economic development and the foundation of moving wheels of individual growth. This is considered as the basic tasks for any productive and economic activity . The investment of the human resources is the economic pillar of production , but the most important element of the production . This research tried to access the method of resource investment and to identify the problems and training as key element in establishment of E –government . A questionnaire document have been distributed to the workers at different levels in the colleges and institutes. The research concluded the necessity of job description , continuous training of the workers , usi

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 28 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Psychological Security and Its Relation to Motivation for Achievement of Social Researchers Working in the Courts
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The research aims to measure the psychological security of social working in the courts, to measure the motivation of achievement for social researchers working in the courts. In addition to, identify the Psychological security and its relation to the motivation of achievement for social researchers working in the courts. To achieve these aims, the researcher adopted two scales: Maslow scale for Psychological security, which was translated to Arabic by Dwany and Dirany 1983 consisted of (75) items. The second scale is Othman scale for achievement motivation 2014 consisted of (24) items. The two scales had been applied to a sample consisted of (100) social researchers working in the courts of Baghdad with its two branches Al-karkh and Al-

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Iterative Reweighting Algorithm and Genetic Algorithm to Calculate The Estimation of The Parameters Of The Maximum Likelihood of The Skew Normal Distribution
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Excessive skewness which occurs sometimes in the data is represented as an obstacle against normal distribution. So, recent studies have witnessed activity in studying the skew-normal distribution (SND) that matches the skewness data which is regarded as a special case of the normal distribution with additional skewness parameter (α), which gives more flexibility to the normal distribution. When estimating the parameters of (SND), we face the problem of the non-linear equation and by using the method of Maximum Likelihood estimation (ML) their solutions will be inaccurate and unreliable. To solve this problem, two methods can be used that are: the genetic algorithm (GA) and the iterative reweighting algorithm (IR) based on the M

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 29 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Economics Department Assessment of Nutritional a program to student of internal departments in the University of Baghdad (Jadriy a complex ) and the University of mustnsiriy
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The present study aimed to asspssment the nutrition a program to sample of student from internal departments of Baghdad University (AL-Jadiriya Complex) and the University of AL-MustanSiriya four grades and aged (19-24) year study included 150 male and female students by (75) male and (75) of female register height, weight nd body mass index were study habits and food pattern of the same sample (150) and by aspecial form and take the personal information interviews and record information on food intake during 24 hour .noted adifference practie in the weights and longths of male and female (sample).
BMI rates were within the normal weight as the value of BMI for males aged (19- 21)and (22-24) and (22.21) and (23,37),respectively and th

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The adequacy of the methods used in the collection of tax debt in Iraq: Applied research in the General Authority for Taxation
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If the sovereignty of the state is reflected in the taxation of its citizens, this sovereignty can not be completed and completed only if it works on its part to collect its debts, whether voluntary or compulsory, and the debt of the debt arises from the will of the individual and the will of the state alone, The existing management of seizure and collection is based on an unequal relationship between the State and the debtor from which the obligation arises. Naturally, this relationship has obligations and rights on both parties. The researcher used a set of studies and previous research, books and other sources related to the subject of research. This was done through the theoretical and practical aspects, which focused on direct and i

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the Behavior of the Stock Markets in the Turkish Economy
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             A discussion about the repercussions of the exchange rate on the behavior of stock markets became one of the basic principles of financial economics. The Istanbul Stock Exchange , considered  one of the fastest financial markets growing in the region, driven by solid economic activity, for a diversified economy  which classified as one of the the fastest growing economies in the world. However, the aforementioned market witnessed sharp fluctuations in the past few months, coinciding with the continuous fluctuations in the exchange rate of the Turkish lira, posing a serious challenge to the economic and investment environment in a c

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