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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of governmental consumer spending on the development of the current account balance in Iraq for the period (1990-2014) using ARDL model
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To avoid the negative effects due to inflexibility of the domestic production inresponse to the increase in government consumption expenditure leads to more  imports to meet the increase in domestic demand resulting from the increase in government consumption expenditure. Since the Iraqi economy economy yield unilateral depends on oil revenues to finance spending, and the fact government consumer spending is a progressive high flexibility the increase in overall revenues, while being a regressive flexibility is very low in the event of reduced public revenues, and therefore lead to a deficit in the current account position. And that caused the deficit for imbalance are the disruption of the

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The reasons for the failure of Bishara CO2 compressor belonging to Southern Fertilizer Company
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In this research study failed Annunciation No. 10 for the fourth phase of the pressure of carbon dioxide of the company for Southern Fertilizers and repeated the failures more than once for the same gospel was a detailed study of the gospel included a series tests for properties Mechanical and Structural addition to the tests microscopic and scanning electron microscope shows m This study parameters and a failure Elal well as the existence of an old internal cracks in the metal of the Annunciation

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 16 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The system of urban stability in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq
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The developing countries can be distinguished by spatial disparities and by this a wide gap between urban and rural settlements were produced as well as the appearance of primate cities. The effect of spatial development as a dynamic and continuous process can be perceived in the state of population distribution inside settlements inter and intra regions as well as the hierarchy of urban settlements according to time series. The research proved that the improvement judgment of the structure of the urban system using Gene factor is not accurate because it cannot be accounted for the internal components of the system which make a contrariety between the whole judgment (country) and partial components (Provinces including Sulaimaniy

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 30 2023
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Utilizing the R.E.N.A.L Nephrometry Score to predict the Surgical Technique and Peri-operative Outcomes of Renal Masses
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Background: despite the rise in the incidence of renal cell carcinoma attributed to availability of medical imaging, a considerable decline in mortality is an association. Morbidity-wise, the shift from radical nephrectomy to partial nephrectomy is the trend for now. Multiple scoring systems have been introduced over the past decades to help surgeons choose between radical and partial nephrectomy. One commonly used system is the RENAL nephrometry score that was first introduced by Kutikov and Uzzo in 2009.

Objective: to evaluate the role of RENAL nephrometry scoring system in predicting the surgical technique to use to resect renal masses and associated perioperative outcomes.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Develop Bactra system to determine Mutagens in the Environment, Food / IV modified Mutagens use of hydroxylamine
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Use Almtafr axis to study the response component that isolates gave a positive response to the use of standard Almtafr which leads to lower the temperature and the number of cells at a temperature suitable Rifampicin resistant less than that TJ and similarly reflected on the frequency of mutations induced

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 02 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Design of a Programmable System for Failure Modes and Effect Analysis of Steam-Power Plant Based on the Fault Tree Analysis
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In this paper, the system of the power plant has been investigated as a special type of industrial systems, which has a significant role in improving societies since the electrical energy has entered all kinds of industries, and it is considered as the artery of modern life.

   The aim of this research is to construct a programming system, which could be used to identify the most important failure modes that are occur in a steam type of power plants. Also the effects and reasons of each failure mode could be analyzed through the usage of this programming system reaching to the basic events (main reasons) that causing each failure mode. The construction of this system for FMEA is dependi

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 30 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Job satisfaction in motivating potential energy of youth charged and non-enforcement officials' relationship newly administrative work
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The good preparation for a class of young people is the great importance requirement.
This case on the state role to put exceptional philosophy bench form which the entire category
through group of experienced educators to prepare different and distinct programs to suit
every specialty of this class. This base of this role can draw upon, including state institutions
need of young people add urges the mental and physical abilities, scientific and cognitive
specialties and carry it from the levee in the academic certification .And we must not lose the
lose sight of the link that pilot projects in which to invest the energies of youth programs and
curricula attractions including incentives .It's become the subject of jo

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Modeling and Analyzing the Influence of Fear on the Harvested Modified Leslie-Gower Model
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A modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model with a Beddington-DeAngelis functional response is proposed and studied. The purpose is to examine the effects of fear and quadratic fixed effort harvesting on the system's dynamic behavior. The model's qualitative properties, such as local equilibria stability, permanence, and global stability, are examined. The analysis of local bifurcation has been studied. It is discovered that the system experiences a saddle-node bifurcation at the survival equilibrium point whereas a transcritical bifurcation occurs at the boundary equilibrium point. Additionally established are the prerequisites for Hopf bifurcation existence. Finally, using MATLAB, a numerical investigation is conducted to verify the va

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Modeling Jar Test Results Using Gene Expression to Determine the Optimal Alum Dose in Drinking Water Treatment Plants
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Coagulation is the most important process in drinking water treatment. Alum coagulant increases the aluminum residuals, which have been linked in many studies to Alzheimer's disease. Therefore, it is very important to use it with the very optimal dose. In this paper, four sets of experiments were done to determine the relationship between raw water characteristics: turbidity, pH, alkalinity, temperature, and optimum doses of alum [   .14 O] to form a mathematical equation that could replace the need for jar test experiments. The experiments were performed under different conditions and under different seasonal circumstances. The optimal dose in every set was determined, and used to build a gene expression model (GEP). The models were co

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Ecological Engineering
Using Machine Learning Algorithms to Predict the Sweetness of Bananas at Different Drying Times
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