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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Political development on the royal regime era : A perusal according to the standards of Alexis de Tocqueville
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Abstract: The researcher aims to highlight the historical frames of political development in royal regime era (1921-1949) and study its transitions on social-political aspect for the various periods during this consistent era of Iraq history. As some elements played an important role in shaping this era’s features ,as well as 2hat succeed it, which mainly affected the political progression’s configuration, such as : political culture role, social and cultural foundation, state policy essence and the unofficial institutions remarkable role in influencing public awareness and concerning it's relation to the state ,the clan and religious institutions. The researcher employed Alexis de Tocqueville’s evaluation criteria and indi

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 13 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Impact of Family Physicians' Practices upon the Quality of Family Medicine Health Care Services at Model Primary Health Care Centers in Baghdad City
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Objective(s): To evaluate the family physicians' practices and to measure its impact upon the quality of family
medicine health care in Baghdad City model primary health care centers.
Methodology: A descriptive study, using the evaluation approach, has evaluated the impact of family physicians'
practices upon quality of healthcare in Baghdad's Model Primary Health Care Centers of Family Medicine. It is
carried out during 15th of May – 20th of August 2017. The study is conducted at five model primary health care
centers of family medicine from two districts; AL-Rusafa and AL-Kurkh. Sample size is calculated to be (76)
family physicians. Convenient sample of (124) patients who are attending these primary health care cen

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 31 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
The Ability of Nutrient Antioxidants to Influence Oxidative Stress and Lower the Dose of Prednisolone in Patients with Alopecia Areata
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Alopecia areata is a common disorder, hypothesized to be autoimmune in etiology. Cortisone taken orally may stimulate new hair growth. Prednisone (orally administered steroid (has proved effective for patients with alopecia areata, but its potential side effects include weight gain, metabolic abnormalities, acne and menstrual problems.

This clinical study was designed to assess the clinical significance of the nutrient antioxidants (vitamin A, vitamin E and vitamin C) in reducing the dose of corticosteroids (prednisolone), and as a consequence, their side effects in patient with alopecia. The results of this study reveal the potential clinical significance of the therapy for two months with these antioxidants in reducing the dose

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measurement and analysis of the production function of the transport sector in the Iraqi economy
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Transportation Sector classified as one of the services sectors which is without the production activities cannot be complete its rule. Is act asmoving actions which operate at production and non production goals for the organization and individuals insides the country and with others, that is why this sector act as one of the main which is occupied an important status on the way the economic activities and on the level of the economic institutions the transportation work on transforming all the commodities and products from productions locations to consumption location then its effect the productivity process and create the location utility and on the level of economic it considered as one of the economic supportive structure an

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 26 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The role of the marketing intelligence system in the quality of the insurance service : Applied research in the National Insurance Company
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The current research seeks to identify the role of the marketing intelligence system in its dimensions (customer intelligence, market intelligence, competitor intelligence, insurance product intelligence, sales representatives) and its reflection on improving the quality of the insurance service provided by the National Insurance Company represented in its dimensions (reliability, response, tangibility, Safety, the spirit of empathy, communication) adopted in the current research, and based on that, the research came as an attempt to find out the extent to which the research sample company can apply the approach of the marketing intelligence system and its impact on improving the quality of the insurance service provided to custo

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 24 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effectiveness of a Rational Emotional Behavioral Program in Developing Self-Efficacy to Reduce the Burnout among Teachers of Students with Autism Disorder
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The aim of this study is to identify the effectiveness of a rational, emotional, behavioral program in developing self-efficacy to reduce the level of Burnout in 20 teachers of students with autism disorder in Jazan, Saudi Arabia. The proposed program included 12 training sessions. The researcher found that the proposed program has contributed significantly to the development of self-efficacy and reduce the level of Burnout for the targeted subject in this study.

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 07 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Administration And Economics
Using the Maximum Likelihood Method with a Suggested Weight to Estimate the Effect of Some Pollutants on the Tigris River- City of Kut
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The aim of this research is to use robust technique by trimming, as the analysis of maximum likelihood (ML) often fails in the case of outliers in the studied phenomenon. Where the (MLE) will lose its advantages because of the bad influence caused by the Outliers. In order to address this problem, new statistical methods have been developed so as not to be affected by the outliers. These methods have robustness or resistance. Therefore, maximum trimmed likelihood: (MTL) is a good alternative to achieve more results. Acceptability and analogies, but weights can be used to increase the efficiency of the resulting capacities and to increase the strength of the estimate using the maximum weighted trimmed likelihood (MWTL). In order to perform t

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 28 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Physical Education
Contribute to the pivotal thinking skills in performing the transmission skill from Volleyball Fourth preparatory grade adolescents
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The aim of this study was to identify the level of critical thinking skills among fourth-grade middle school students and to determine the performance level of the underhand volleyball pass, with the assumption that there is a positive relationship between critical thinking and skill performance. The study population included 281 students from Basra Preparatory School for Girls under the Second Baghdad Education Directorate for the 2024/2025 academic year, of whom 275 students were intentionally selected as the research sample (97.865% of the population). The experimental procedure involved applying a critical thinking scale and a technical performance test for the underhand pass on 25 students per day over 11 days, from February 9

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Publication Date
Fri May 18 2018
Journal Name
Thesis
The Arabian killifish (Aphanius dispar) as a novel model for mycophysiological studies.
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Abstract Candida albicans is a commensal fungal pathogen that grows in yeast and hyphal forms in the human gut. C. albicans causes mucosal and cutaneous diseases that can result in significant mortality following systematic infections and it also exhibits drug resistance. Zebrafish have been an excellent model to investigate C. albicans infections because of their transparency and the availability of many transgenic lines. However, there is a limitation in using zebrafish as a model because the fish embryos cannot survive at 37°C therefore it is not suitable for studying Candida infections at physiological relevant human body temperature. In this thesis, the normal embryonic development of Arabian killifish (A. dispar) is investigated, rev

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 28 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Apply the gravity model for trips between Najaf center and its settlements
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The study showed flow rates and the interaction between the settlements served by applying the model of gravity theory to measure depending on the number of the population between city Najaf and the rest of the other settlements served and using three functions of disability, time and cost, as recorded an increase in the interaction index with some settlements like them Kufa, Abbasid and Manathira, while the indicator contrast was in other settlements, either when the application of the gravity model depending on trips and socio-economic characteristics accuracy rate was more pronounced.

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