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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Fri May 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
The Dynamics and Analysis of Stage-Structured Predator-Prey Model Involving Disease and Refuge in Prey Population
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Abstract<p>Start your abstract here the objective of this paper is to study the dynamical behaviour of an eco-epidemiological system. A prey-predator model involving infectious disease with refuge for prey population only, the (SI_) infectious disease is transmitted directly, within the prey species from external sources of the environment as well as, through direct contact between susceptible and infected individuals. Linear type of incidence rate is used to describe the transmission of infectious disease. While Holling type II of functional responses are adopted to describe the predation process of the susceptible and infected predator respectively. This model is represented mathematically by </p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2024
Journal Name
الذكوات البيض
The problem of employing political discourse and its role in promoting community peace: Iraq as a model
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After 2003, Iraq witnessed new challenges represented by the predominance of sectarian discourses, hatred and extremism at the expense of moderate political discourse and the predominance of sub-affiliations and external agendas at the expense of national affiliation, which led to the creation of an unsafe or stable environment dominated by the character of violence and terrorism. Moderate discourse would work to fuse sub-affiliations into one melting pot in which it would be the first loyalty to the homeland and not to the tribe, party or sect... Etc., and this in turn will contribute to promoting peaceful coexistence between the various other sub-affiliations within the framework of one community construction

Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2025
Journal Name
Methodsx
How mathematical models might predict desertification from global warming and dust pollutants
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Publication Date
Sat Jul 20 2019
Journal Name
Al-nahrain Journal For Engineering Sciences
Inducing Frictional Force to Enhance the Transient Response in Beams
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This paper studies the effect of contact areas on the transient response of mechanical structures. Precisely, it investigates replacing the ordinary beam of a structure by two beams of half the thickness, which are joined by bolts. The response of these beams is controlled by adjusting the tightening of the connecting bolts and hence changing the magnitude of the induced frictional force between the two beams which affect the beams damping capacity. A cantilever of two beams joined together by bolts has been investigated numerically and experimentally. The numerical analysis was performed using ANSYS-Workbench version 17.2. A good agreement between the numerical and experimental results has been obtained. In general, results s

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Paving the Way for PPP's to Infrastructure Projects in Iraq
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The political situation experienced by Iraq before the events of 2003 that led to the collapse of infrastructure. rebuilding costs were estimated after 2003 by187(million USD) according to the estimates of the basic needs as stated in Five-Year Plan 2010-2014. The difficult in financing projects and the continuous demands for maintenance and operating cost, and working by contemporary styles in different countries, the strategic option is to adopt the government entering the private sector as a partner in the development process. Since public _private partnership (PPP's) is at a germinating stage of development in Iraq, it has been studied the critical success factors(CSF's) in the experiences of countries that have implemented the style

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Nature Environment And Pollution Technology
The Kinetic Model for Decolourization of Commercial Direct Blue 2 Azo Dye Aqueous Solution by the Fenton Process and the Effect of Inorganic Salts
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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The contribution of e-banking to the competitive advantage of banking institutions in Algeria: Case Study of Agricultural and Rural Development Bank
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The importance of the study stems from the fact that it deals with a very important subject, namely, the pivotal role played by E-banking in achieving the competitive advantage of the banking institutions operating in Algeria. By adopting the banking institution and adopting the elements of the electronic marketing mix and developing it as required by the environment The banking system of developments will inevitably be able to achieve excellence from its competitors as each of these elements have an important role in achieving competitive advantage, we relied in this study on studies and research that directly affect the problem of the study and we have put Estep In order to activate the contribution of e-banking in achieving competitiv

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 15 2004
Journal Name
Sciences Journal Of Physical Education
Setting standard levels for some offensive skill abilities according to basketball playing positions
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لا يزال المهتمون بلعبة كرة السلة يبحثون عن إيجاد الوسائل الأكثر أهمية وصولاً إلى ما تطمح إليه الدول لتحقيق افضل المستويات في نواحي اللعبة كافة من خلال التغلب على المعوقات التي تحول دون تقدمها إلى الأمام بالدراسة والبحث. ومن هذا المنطلق انصب البحث في ضرورة معالجة القصور الناتج عن عدم وجود المستويات المعيارية ذات العلاقة باختبارات قدرات اللاعبين وعلى وفق مراكز اللعب ولا سيما المهارية الهجومية، ومما شكل ذلك ضع

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 18 2022
Journal Name
Materials Science Forum
Spatial Analyzing of the Chemical Soil Properties for the Sanam Mountain-Al Zubair Region South of Basra Province and Diagnosis of its Effects on Soil Qualities Using Remote Sensing Technology and GIS
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Publication Date
Tue Jan 18 2022
Journal Name
Materials Science Forum
Spatial Analyzing of the Chemical Soil Properties for the Sanam Mountain- Al Zubair Region South of Basra Province and Diagnosis of its Effects on Soil Qualities Using Remote Sensing Technology and GIS
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The article discusses the spatial analysis of the chemical soil properties that is a key component of the agriculture ecosystem based on satellite images. The main objective of the present study is to measure the chemical soil properties (total dissolved salts (TDS), Electrical conductivity (EC), PH, and) and the ​spatial variability. On 13 November 2020 (wet season), a total of 12 soil samples were collected in the field through random sampling in the Sanam mountain-Al Zubair region south of Basra province, to contain its soil samples components of minerals and precious elements such as silica and sulfur. From experimental results, the soil sample in the sixth position has the highest concentration of TDS values, reached (5798.4

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