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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of market orientation and the commitment of employees to performance
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أستهدفت الدراسة اختبار أثر التوجه السوقي والتزام العاملين على أداء المنظمة المسوقة لخدمات النقل الجوي. حيث تم اختيار شركة الخطوط الجوية الملكية الأردنية كمجال تطبيقي.وقد اعتمدت الدراسة في قياس المتغيرات على مقاييس مختبرة وقد تأكد صحتها وثباتها لقياس المتغيرات في البيئة الحالية.  وقد بينت نتائج التحليل الإحصائي الذي استخدمت فيه أساليب إحصائية مختلفة بالاستعانة ببرنامج SPSS))

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 03 2025
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Selective Exposure Patterns to the Iraqi Daily Newspapers and Its Motives for Iraqi University Students (College of Mass Communication - University of Baghdad as a Model)
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This study examines patterns of exposure of Iraqi university students to selective daily Iraqi newspapers and the motives of this exposure, as well as its associated factors that affect the average exposure. It tries to answer several questions, including those related to the levels of exposure of Iraqi university students to daily Iraqi newspapers and classification of patterns of selective exposure to daily Iraqi newspapers and the most prominent Iraqi daily newspapers that are selectively exposed by Iraqi university students. It also examines the motives of this selective exposure and factors that increase the degree of exposure to the daily Iraqi newspapers, and the most prominent stages in which Iraqi university students find their

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 20 2016
Journal Name
Al-academy
The mechanism of addition and subtraction in the industrial product and its relation to employment pressure: بـــان محمد شـاكر الطائي
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The Significance of this research comes as a result of the development occurring in various life fields including the field of technical and technological development in the domain of industrial products which are in direct touch with the receiver, and because the study of deletion and addition mechanism didn't Find the Scientific space through researches and Studies. On this basis , the aim of this study is defining the forms of deletion and addition mechanism in designing the industrial product in a way that fits the functional presser . As to the limitations of this study, they involve examples of readymade Turkish House furniture, which is available in Iraqi local markets in Baghdad city 2013. The study included four chapters. The fi

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 27 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Positive School Psychology .
The Explosive Capacity Of The Muscles Of The Two Men And Their Relationship To The Scoring Of Football Halls
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The research dealt with its forefront a definition of the aspects of the study and its variables, the explosive capacity and its relationship to the scoring of football for the halls and highlights the importance of these variables, and the problem of the research consisted that some players fail to score Amie because of the weak power of shots or the slow scoring, so the researchers saw studying this problem and knowing the extent of the influence of the explosive strength During the performance of the skill of scoring with five football, the study aimed to identify the relationship between the explosive strength and the skill of scoring with five football. Researchers assume that there is a statistically significant relationship between t

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 18 2023
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Media policy and its impact on the level of objectivity in the Iraqi media : A study from the communicators’ point of view in the Iraqi medi outlets for the period from (1/5/2021 to 1/9/2021)
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The research aims to reveal the impact of media policy in Iraqi media outlets on the level of objectivity in these outlets. A study from the communicators’ point of view where the researcher used a survey method on the communicators in media outlets to reveal the extent of media policies knowledge as well as the pressures exerted by this policy on communicators in media outlets. It also reveals the extent of their commitment to objectivity, neutrality in dealing with information and the way used to transfer it.
The research sample included (179) respondents from communicators in a range of Media outlets such as (Press, Radio, and Television), The researcher was careful with the diversity of the sample, and

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 15 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Sport Sciences
Setting standards for some physical abilities and according to basketball playing positions for Iraqi youth
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أن لعبة كرة السلة في تقدم وتطور مستمر حالها في ذلك حال الألعاب الرياضية الأخرى حيث أن الفضل في ذلك يعود إلى المعرفة بالعلوم المختلفة وكذلك البحث العلمي من اجل تحقيق نتائج متقدمة تنشدها معظم الدول ومنها العراق على الصعيد المحلي والعربي والدولي. ومما لاشك فيه أن متطلبات تطور مستوى نتائج القدرات البدنية في أيُة لعبة مرتبطة بالبرمجة والتخطيط الصحيح للمناهج التدريبية إذ تقودنا هذه الحقيقة إلى إجراء المزيد من الا

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 09 2014
Journal Name
Iosr Journal Of Mathematics (iosr-jm)
An Efficient Shrinkage Estimator for the Parameters of Simple Linear Regression Model
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Publication Date
Sun Jul 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Studying the Behavior of Asphalt Stabilized Gepseous Soil for Earth Embankment Model
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The study presents the test results of stabilizing gypseous soil embankment obtained from
Al- Faluja university Campus at Al-Ramady province. The laboratory investigation was divided
into three phases, The physical and chemical properties, the optimum liquid asphalt (emulsion)
requirements (which are manufactured in Iraq) were determined by using one dimensional
unconfined compression strength test.in the first phase , The optimum fluid content was 11%
(6% of emulsion with 5% water content).. At phase two, the effect of Aeration technique was
investigated using both direct shear and permeability test. At phase three for the case of static
load , the pure soil embankment model under dry test condition was investigated

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Estimation of the Standard Atmospheric Earth Model Parameters at 86 km Altitude
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     Utilizing the Turbo C programming language, the atmospheric earth model is created from sea level to 86 km. This model has been used to determine atmospheric Earth parameters in this study. Analytical derivations of these parameters are made using the balancing forces theory and the hydrostatic equation. The effects of altitude on density, pressure, temperature, gravitational acceleration, sound speed, scale height, and molecular weight are examined. The mass of the atmosphere is equal to about 50% between sea level and 5.5 km. g is equal to 9.65 m/s2 at 50 km altitude, which is 9% lower than 9.8 m/s2 at sea level. However, at 86 km altitude, g is close to 9.51 m/s2, which is close to 15% smaller than 9.8 m/s2.  These resu

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Communications In Mathematical Biology And Neuroscience
The dynamics of a delayed ecological model with predator refuge and cannibalism
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This study has contributed to understanding a delayed prey-predator system involving cannibalism. The system is assumed to use the Holling type II functional response to describe the consuming process and incorporates the predator’s refuge against the cannibalism process. The characteristics of the solution are discussed. All potential equilibrium points have been identified. All equilibrium points’ local stability analyses for all time delay values are investigated. The system exhibits a Hopf bifurcation at the coexistence equilibrium, which is further demonstrated. The center manifold and normal form theorems for functional differential equations are then used to establish the direction of Hopf bifurcation and the stability of the per

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