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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 23 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
The Students Experience of Hybrid- Education Model at The University of Baghdad College of Pharmacy
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The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on education models was mainly through the expansion of technology use in the different educational programs. Earlier impact of COVID-19 was manifested in the complete and sudden transition to distance education regardless of institution preparedness status. Gradually, many institutions are moving back to on-campus face-to-face education. However, others including all higher education institutions in Iraq are adopting the hybrid education model. This report presents part of the end of semester evaluation survey conducted at the University of Baghdad College of Pharmacy for the Spring 2021 semester. The survey aims to address points of strength and weakness associated with the hybrid education model and spe

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2015
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Arrows of Kurdish scholars in the service of the Sunnah of Imam Majd al-Din Ibn al-Atheer al-Jazari (544_606): A model
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This research is a modest effort to talk about the great world of ancient lineage, Imam Majd al-Din Abu Saadat, known as Ibn al-Atheer island, through the statement of his name, surname, nickname, family, elders and his pupils and his most important works.
It also deals with the modern research on his famous book in the field of modern science called (the end in the strange talk and impact), which is one of the most wonderful books of modern and especially the strange talk, through the scientific effort of the Imam and the importance of the book and methodology, and the most prominent aspects of the service and care of Ibn Al Atheer For the modern stranger, which boils down to two aspects:
First: the linguistic rooting of the stran

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 20 2022
Journal Name
Biomedical And Pharmacology Journal
Phytochemical Comparison Study for Evaluating the Hypolipidemic Effect Between Two Iraqi Pepper Spp in the Rats Model.
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Hypercholesterolemia is a predominant risk factor for atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The World Health Organization (WHO), ) recommended reducing the intake of cholesterol and saturated fats. On the other hand, limited evidence is available on the benefits of vegetables in the diet to reduce these risk factors, so this research was conducted to compare the hypolipidemic effect between the extracts of two different types of Iraqi peppers, the fruit of the genus Capsicum traditionally known as red pepper extract (RPE), and Piper nigrum as black pepper extract (BPE), respectively, in different parameters and histology of the liver of the experimental animals. The red pepper was extracted by ethyl acetate, while the black pepp

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Modern Physics E
The ground state properties of some exotic nuclei studied by the two-body model
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The ground state properties including the density distributions of the neutrons, protons and matter as well as the corresponding root mean square (rms) radii of proton-rich halo candidates 8B, 12N, 23Al and 27P have been studied by the single particle Bear– Hodgson (BH) wave functions with the two-body model of (core+p). It is found that the rms radii of these proton-rich nuclei are reproduced well by this model and the radial wave functions describe the long tail of the proton and matter density distributions. These results indicate that this model achieves a suitable description of the possible halo structure. The plane wave Born approximation (PWBA) has been used to compute the elastic charge form factors.

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 02 2021
Journal Name
Humanitarian And Natural Sciences Journal
THE LINGUISTIC STRUCTURES OF THE HISTORIANS ALYAQOUBI (284 AH / 897 AD) ARE A MODEL
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The research in the linguistic structures of the historians Al-Yaqoubi is considered a model of the important topics in historical studies in general, given its importance in the lives of peoples due to its connotations and meanings that summarize interpretation, clarification, and prolonged speech, as it includes life meanings with many dimensions, these structures have been used in historical incidents Important, and throughout the different ages, as it can be used to support an opinion, solve problems, prove evidence, increase wisdom, and it needs rich life experiences, and a sound language, to use it, and needs a wide absorptive capacity for the recipient, the research included linguistic structures in the achievement of science , Lingu

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 20 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Modeling and Analyzing the Influence of Fear on the Harvested Modified Leslie-Gower Model
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A modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model with a Beddington-DeAngelis functional response is proposed and studied. The purpose is to examine the effects of fear and quadratic fixed effort harvesting on the system's dynamic behavior. The model's qualitative properties, such as local equilibria stability, permanence, and global stability, are examined. The analysis of local bifurcation has been studied. It is discovered that the system experiences a saddle-node bifurcation at the survival equilibrium point whereas a transcritical bifurcation occurs at the boundary equilibrium point. Additionally established are the prerequisites for Hopf bifurcation existence. Finally, using MATLAB, a numerical investigation is conducted to verify t

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 04 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of Sample Size on the Item Differential Functioning in the Context of Item Response Theory
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The current study examined the effect of different sample sizes to detect the Item differential functioning (DIF). The study has used three different sizes of the samples (300, 500, 1000), as well as to test a component of twenty polytomous items, where each item has five categories. They were used Graded Response Model as a single polytomous item response theory model to estimate items and individuals’ parameters. The study has used the Mantel-Haenszel (MH) way to detect (DIF) through each case for the different samples. The results of the study showed the inverse relationship between the sample size and the number of items, which showed a differential performer.

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 19 2019
Journal Name
Plant Archives
NEW INTERESTING RECORDS OF THREE SPECIES FROM PEZIZACEAE AND PYRONEMATACEAE FAMILIES (PEZIZALEA, ASCOMYCOTA) TO KURDISTAN REGION – IRAQ
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The survey was carried out From January to April of 2018 on macrofungi samples collected from different places in Halabja province located in north eastern parts of Iraq-Kurdistan region. This region is rich in forest trees and pasture lands with diversity of shrubs and herbs and is expected to support the growth of several macro fungal species. However, this part of Kurdistan in Iraq is still unexplored from macrofungal point of view. In this paper three species from Pezizaceae and Pyronemataceae families that belonging to (Pezizales, Ascomycota), were reported from Iraqi Kurdistan. These macrofungal species are recorded for the first time from Iraq. Also the species were identified and showing their locations distributed on a map prepared

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Intermediate Role Of information Technology In The Relationship To The Entrepreneurial Orientation and Success Factors Of The Project (Analytical exploratory research in Al – Zawraa General Company)
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The purpose of the current research is to identify the reality and applicability of the entrepreneurial approach in its dimensions (creative, proactive, independent, risk tolerant, offensive) and its impact on the success factors of the project (organizational commitment, communication, project team, project monitoring) Access to information, treatment, storage), which is a significant and important link in the success and development of industrial projects with the possibility of studying and analyzing the provision of the appropriate environment for this.

 the research started from a problem expressed by a number of intellectual and practical questions aimed at answering them as well as To answer a

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Publication Date
Tue May 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Prediction of the Effect of Using Stone Column in Clayey Soil on the Behavior of Circular Footing by ANN Model
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Shallow foundations are usually used for structures with light to moderate loads where the soil underneath can carry them. In some cases, soil strength and/or other properties are not adequate and require improvement using one of the ground improvement techniques. Stone column is one of the common improvement techniques in which a column of stone is installed vertically in clayey soils. Stone columns are usually used to increase soil strength and to accelerate soil consolidation by acting as vertical drains. Many researches have been done to estimate the behavior of the improved soil. However, none of them considered the effect of stone column geometry on the behavior of the circular footing. In this research, finite ele

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