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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Wed May 31 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Sustainable Development And Planning
Prediction of Formal Transformations in City Structure (Kufa as a Model) Based on the Cellular Automation Model and Markov Chains
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The research utilizes data produced by the Local Urban Management Directorate in Najaf and the imagery data from the Landsat 9 satellite, after being processed by the GIS tool. The research follows a descriptive and analytical approach; we integrated the Markov chain analysis and the cellular automation approach to predict transformations in city structure as a result of changes in land utilization. The research also aims to identify approaches to detect post-classification transformations in order to determine changes in land utilization. To predict the future land utilization in the city of Kufa, and to evaluate data accuracy, we used the Kappa Indicator to determine the potential applicability of the probability matrix that resulted from

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 02 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Assessing of Some Toxic Heavy Metals Levels and Using Geo Accumulation Index in Sediment of Shatt Al-Arab and the Iraqi Marine Region
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Mercury, arsenic, cadmium and lead, were measured in sediment samples of river and marine environmental of Basra governorate in southern of Iraq. Sixteen sites of sediment were selected and distributed along Shatt Al-Arab River and the Iraqi marine environment. The samples were distributed among one station on Euphrates River before its confluence with Tigris River and Shatt Al-Arab formation, seven stations along Shatt Al-Arab River and eight stations were selected from the Iraqi marine region. All samples were collected from surface sediment in low tide time. ICP technique was used for the determination of mercury and arsenic for all samples, while cadmium and lead were measured for the same samples by using Atomic Absorption Spectrosc

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Investment in Human Resources According to the Requirements of Work Markets in Iraq
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Investment in Human is one of the best and most important investments as it is renewed and developed resource over time in comparison with depleted material resources. Human resources is considered the part of the population that could be employed economically to contribute in increasing production energies as it is the support pillar of the society and have great energies that construct the society and raise of nations as well as he is distinguished with characteristics of ambitions to freedom.

Iraq is one of the countries that has large number of population in age of work and production and reduce in age dependent classes (children and old people).This dynamic in population led to step

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 02 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Determination of Advanced Oxidation Protein Products, E3 SUMO-Protein Ligase NSE2[NSMCE2], as a Marker to Predict Child Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia
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Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is a cancer of the blood and bone marrow (spongy tissue in the center of bone). In ALL, too many bone marrow stem cells develop into a type of white blood cell called lymphocytes. These abnormal lymphocytes are not able to fight infection very well. The aim of this study was to investigate possible links between E3 SUMO-Protein Ligase NSE2 [NSMCE2] and increase DNA damage in the childhood patients with Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). Laboratory investigations including hemoglobin(Hb) ,white blood cell (WBC) , serum total protein , albumin ,globulin , in addition to serum total antioxidant activity (TAA) , Advanced oxidation protein products(AOPP) and E3 SUMO-Protein Ligase NSE2[NSMCE2]. Blood samples

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The influence of organizational culture on the organizational performance of educational institutions (University of Technology as a model)
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The organizational culture is an effective control mechanism that dictates the behavior of employees and according to their intellectual and social orientations, so it is considered a more powerful way to control employee orientations and determine their management according to organizational rules and regulations, as it was one of the most important factors determining the performance of organizations, while organizational performance is a measure of what the organization has achieved from the objectives of the scheme To ensure that it faces various changes and remains within the global competition, and to reach that it was necessary to identify the most prominent and most important research problems in knowing the extent of com

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of College Of Education
An Investigative Study on the Electron Energy Distribution Function and Electron Transport Coefficients in SF6 -- Ne Gas Mixtures
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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Applied Energy
Solidification enhancement with multiple PCMs, cascaded metal foam and nanoparticles in the shell-and-tube energy storage system
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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
Energy Conversion And Management
Simultaneous energy storage and recovery in the triplex-tube heat exchanger with PCM, copper fins and Al2O3 nanoparticles
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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role of External Audit in Limiting Creative Accounting Practices in Light of International Standards from The Point of View of Certified Accountancy Experts in Iraq as a Model
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This research aims to solve a problem in the field of accounting and financial knowledge in the world today, that is, the problem of creative accounting. Especially after the global financial crisis and the collapse of many large companies in the world, people find that they use creative accounting methods to distinguish them from reality, showing the results of their activities and their financial status. This research discusses the concept of creative accounting, the most important methods used in financial statements and its relationship with external auditing, and procedures to limit accounting creativity. This study uses descriptive analysis methods after confirming its theoretical aspects in practice. Using the statistical

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 08 2020
Journal Name
Environment, Development And Sustainability
Groundwater availability and water demand sustainability over the upper mega aquifers of Arabian Peninsula and west region of Iraq
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