The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traff

        In this paper, the Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) for Williamson fluid with varying temperature and concentration in an inclined channel with variable viscosity has been examined. The perturbation technique in terms of the Weissenberg number  to obtain explicit forms for the velocity field has been used. All the solutions of physical parameters of the Darcy parameter , Reynolds number , Peclet number  and Magnetic parameter  are discussed under the different values as shown in plots.

This research aims to solve the nonlinear model formulated in a system of differential equations with an initial value problem (IVP) represented in COVID-19 mathematical epidemiology model as an application using new approach: Approximate Shrunken are proposed to solve such model under investigation, which combines classic numerical method and numerical simulation techniques in an effective statistical form which is shrunken estimation formula. Two numerical simulation methods are used firstly to solve this model: Mean Monte Carlo Runge-Kutta and Mean Latin Hypercube Runge-Kutta Methods. Then two approximate simulation methods are proposed to solve the current study. The results of the proposed approximate shrunken methods and the numerical

   The aim of the research is to measure the efficiency of the companies in the industrial sector listed in the Iraqi Stock Exchange , by directing these companies to their resources (inputs) towards achieving the greatest possible returns (outputs) or reduce those resources while maintaining the level of returns to achieve the efficiency of these companies, therefore, in order to achieve the objectives of the research, it was used (Demerjian.et.al) model to measure the efficiency of companies and the factors influencing them. The researchers had got a number of conclusions , in which the most important of them is that 66.6% of the companies in the research sample do no

Rock mechanical properties are critical parameters for many development techniques related to tight reservoirs, such as hydraulic fracturing design and detecting failure criteria in wellbore instability assessment. When direct measurements of mechanical properties are not available, it is helpful to find sufficient correlations to estimate these parameters. This study summarized experimentally derived correlations for estimating the shear velocity, Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio, and compressive strength. Also, a useful correlation is introduced to convert dynamic elastic properties from log data to static elastic properties. Most of the derived equations in this paper show good fitting to measured data, while some equations show scatters

 According to the circumstances experienced by our country which led to Occurrence of many crises that are the most important crisis is gaining fuel therefore , the theory of queue ( waiting line ) had been used to solve this crisis and as the relevance of this issue indirect and essential role in daily life  .

This research aims to conduct a study of the distribution of gasoline station in (both sides AL – kharkh and AL Rusafa, for the purpose of reducing wasting time and services time through the criteria of the theory of queues and work to improve the efficiency of these stations by the other hand. we are working to reduce the cost of station and increase profits by reducing the active serv

Evaluation of Dot. ELISA test for Diagnosis Visceral Leishmaniasis in Infected Children

BACKGROUND: Chronic prostatitis/chronic pelvic pain syndrome (CP/CPPS) is common, yet no curative treatment identified. Cinnamon is a herbal substance, which has many applications in medicine. AIM: The aim of the study was to study the effect of cinnamon on patients with chronic pelvic pain syndrome. METHODS: Sixty patients with documented CP/CPPS randomized into two groups during 2018 and 2019 in Baghdad. The first group received 60 capsules each contained 1 g of cinnamon. The other group received 60 capsules each contained 1 g of sugar powder (placebo). All the patients instructed to take one capsule twice daily for 1 month. National Institutes of Health-Chronic Prostatitis Symptom Index (NIH-CPSI) was reported for bot

The interest of many companies has become dealing with the tools and methods that reduce the costs as one of the most important factors of successful companies, and became the subject of the attention of many economic units because of the impact on the profits of company, and since the nineties of the last century the researchers and writers gave great attention to this subject, especially in light of the large competition and rapid developments in cost management techniques, as well as the wide and significant change in production methods that have been directed towards achieving customer satisfaction, all this and more driven by economic units in all sectors whether it is service or productivity to find methods that would reduc