Nonlinear time series analysis is one of the most complex problems ; especially the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous variable (NARX) .Then ; the problem of model identification and the correct orders determination considered the most important problem in the analysis of time series . In this paper , we proposed splines estimation method for model identification , then we used three criterions for the correct orders determination. Where ; proposed method used to estimate the additive splines for model identification , And the rank determination depends on the additive property to avoid the problem of curse dimensionally . The proposed method is one of the nonparametric methods , and the simulation results give a good identification of the NARX models and the BIC criteria is the best criterion used to determine the correct orders of the selected models.
Mechanical rock properties are essential to minimize many well problems during drilling and production operations. While these properties are crucial in designing optimum mud weights during drilling operations, they are also necessary to reduce the sanding risk during production operations. This study has been conducted on the Zubair sandstone reservoir, located in the south of Iraq. The primary purpose of this study is to develop a set of empirical correlations that can be used to estimate the mechanical rock properties of sandstone reservoirs. The correlations are established using laboratory (static) measurements and well logging (dynamic) data. The results support the evidence that porosity and sonic travel time are consistent i
... Show MoreThis paper deals with, Bayesian estimation of the parameters of Gamma distribution under Generalized Weighted loss function, based on Gamma and Exponential priors for the shape and scale parameters, respectively. Moment, Maximum likelihood estimators and Lindley’s approximation have been used effectively in Bayesian estimation. Based on Monte Carlo simulation method, those estimators are compared in terms of the mean squared errors (MSE’s).
The current research creates an overall relative analysis concerning the estimation of Meixner process parameters via the wavelet packet transform. Of noteworthy presentation relevance, it compares the moment method and the wavelet packet estimator for the four parameters of the Meixner process. In this paper, the research focuses on finding the best threshold value using the square root log and modified square root log methods with the wavelet packets in the presence of noise to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of the denoising process for the financial asset market signal. In this regard, a simulation study compares the performance of moment estimation and wavelet packets for different sample sizes. The results show that wavelet p
... Show MoreIn this paper, an estimate has been made for parameters and the reliability function for Transmuted power function (TPF) distribution through using some estimation methods as proposed new technique for white, percentile, least square, weighted least square and modification moment methods. A simulation was used to generate random data that follow the (TPF) distribution on three experiments (E1 , E2 , E3) of the real values of the parameters, and with sample size (n=10,25,50 and 100) and iteration samples (N=1000), and taking reliability times (0< t < 0) . Comparisons have been made between the obtained results from the estimators using mean square error (MSE). The results showed the
... Show MoreThis paper presents a complete design and implementation of a monitoring system for the operation of the three-phase induction motors. This system is built using a personal computer and two types of sensors (current, vibration) to detect some of the mechanical faults that may occur in the motor. The study and examination of several types of faults including (ball bearing and shaft misalignment faults) have been done through the extraction of fault data by using fast Fourier transform (FFT) technique. Results showed that the motor current signature analysis (MCSA) technique, and measurement of vibration technique have high possibility in the detection and diagnosis of most mechanical faults with high accuracy. Subsequently, diagnosi
... Show MoreIn this paper, the topic of forecasting the changes in the value of Iraqi crude oil exports for the period from 2019 to 2025, using the Markov transitional series based on the data of the time series for the period from January 2011 to November 2018, is real data obtained from the published data of the Central Agency Of the Iraqi statistics and the Iraqi Ministry of Oil that the results reached indicate stability in the value of crude oil exports according to the data analyzed and listed in the annex to the research.
Keywords: Using Markov chains
To ascertain the stability or instability of time series, three versions of the model proposed by Dickie-Voller were used in this paper. The aim of this study is to explain the extent of the impact of some economic variables such as the supply of money, gross domestic product, national income, after reaching the stability of these variables. The results show that the variable money supply, the GDP variable, and the exchange rate variable were all stable at the level of the first difference in the time series. This means that the series is an integrated first-class series. Hence, the gross fixed capital formation variable, the variable national income, and the variable interest rate
... Show MoreA novel demountable shear connector is proposed to link a concrete slab to steel sections in a way that resulting steel-concrete composite floor is demountable, i.e. it can be easily dismantled at the end of its service life. The proposed connectors consist of two parts: the first part is a hollow steel tube with internal threads at its lower end. The second part is a compatible partially threaded bolted stud. After linking the stud to the steel section, the hollow steel tube can be fastened over the threaded stud, which create a complete demountable shear connector. The connector is suitable for use in both composite bridges and buildings, and using cast in-situ slabs, precast solid slabs, or hollow-core precast slabs. A series of push-off
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