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إعداد خطة قبول خمسية للطلبة في كلية الإدارة والاقتصاد/ جامعة بغداد باستخدام منهجية (بوكس – جينكنز) لتحليل السلاسل الزمنية
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المستخلص:

 إن من أهم عوامل نجاح أي مؤسسة (سواء كانت مؤسسة تعليمية أم غيرها من المؤسسات) هو التخطيط الاستراتيجي السليم المبني على أساس علمي ونظام واقعي متكامل بعيداً عن التخمين والحدس.

تتمثل مشكلة البحث بوجود تفاوت بين أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً والطلبة المخطط قبولهم في الدراسات الأولية بكلية الإدارة والاقتصاد بجامعة بغداد في كل عام دراسي حيث غالباً كانت أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً أكثر من المخطط قبولهم مما يشير إلى عدم وجود آلية علمية واضحة للتنبؤ بأعداد الطلبة المتوقع قبولهم (المخطط قبولهم) لكل عام دراسي، وهذا بدوره أدى إلى عدم تطوير الطاقة الاستيعابية للكلية بشكل يتناسب مع الزيادة الحاصلة في أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً في كل عام دراسي.

لقد جاء هذا البحث بهدف إعداد خطة قبول خمسية لطلبة الدراسات الأولية في الكلية المذكورة باستخدام منهجية (بوكس – جنيكنز) في تحليل السلاسل الزمنية كونها لا تزال تعتبر من الأساليب الحديثة المعتمدة في العديد من الدراسات في الوقت الراهن.

تم تحليل السلسلة الزمنية المتمثلة بأعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً في الدراسة الأولية بالكلية المذكورة للأعوام الدراسية السابقة (من 1990/1991 إلى 2014/2015). لقد خلص البحث إلى أن أنموذجARIMA ( 3,1,0 )  هو الأنموذج الوحيد الممثل لبيانات السلسلة الزمنية تمثيلاً جيداً حيث كانت جميع معلماته معنوية، فضلاً عن اجتيازه لاختبارات الدقة. وقد أوصى البحث باعتماده في إعداد خطط القبول المستقبلية.

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Selection of the initial value of the time series generating the first-order self-regression model in simulation modeAnd their impact on the accuracy of the model
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In this paper, compared eight methods for generating the initial value and the impact of these methods to estimate the parameter of a autoregressive model, as was the use of three of the most popular methods to estimate the model and the most commonly used by researchers MLL method, Barg method  and the least squares method and that using the method of simulation model  first order autoregressive through the design of a number of simulation experiments and the different sizes of the samples.

                  

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Science book second grade content analysis according to the Dimensions Of Sustainable Development
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The objective of this research is to analyze the content of science textbook at the elementary level, according to the dimensions of sustainable development for the academic year (2015-2016). To achieve this goal has been to build a list with dimensions of sustainable development to be included in science textbooks in primary school, after seeing the collection of literature and research and studies, as has been reached to the list of the dimensions of the three sustainable development and social, economic and environmental in the initial image consisted of (63) the issue of sub-divided the three-dimensional, the menu and offered a group of arbitrators and specialists in curriculum and teaching methods, and thus the menu consiste

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
تحليل محتوى كتاب الحاسوب للصف الثاني متوسط وفق مهارات التفكير المنطقي
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يهدف البحث الحالي إلى تحليل محتوى كتاب الحاسوب للصف الثاني متوسط وفق مهارات التفكير المنطقي للعام الدراسي(2015- 2016)م, ولتحقيق ذلك تم استخدام المنهج الوصفي التحليلي (تحليل محتوى) لملاءمته لطبيعة هدف البحث, وتم اعداد أداة البحث بالأعتماد على قائمة مهارات التفكير المنطقي بعد مراجعة الأدبيات والدراسات السابقة, وتم عرضها على مجموعة من المحكمين المتخصصين في المناهج وطرائق التدريس وعلم النفس وعلم الحاسبات والقياس

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2016
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Absence of the Applied Semiotic Approach in Analyzing the Media Phenomenon
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the contemporary Arab scholars deal with semiotics as an approach that helps them understand the texts, its meaning, and its structural functionalism . that’s why every now and then we find some
studies and researches using semiotics as an approach in study and comparatives, some of them even used the semiotic approach in analyzing old and new texts, while others think that semiotic holds and important place in critical approaches .
even though some of them considers semiotic just a trend of fashion this really didn’t lessen the value of semiotic as a scientific and procedural approach in literary and media studies as well as in analyzing literary and journalistic texts. for this reason it is considered as an important approa

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Analyzing the content of the chemistry textbook for the third intermediate grade according to the skills of knowledge economy
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The current research aims to identify the extent to which cognitive economics skills are included in the content of the chemistry textbook for the third intermediate grade, and the research sample was represented in the chemistry textbook for the third intermediate grade. A list of knowledge economy skills was prepared (6) main skills (basic skills, communication skills, thinking skills, work skills Group, information-gathering skill, behavioral skills (and (20) sub-skills) (reading, writing, operations, computer skills and employability, oral expression and written communication, dialogue, persuasion, influence and arousal, analysis, problem-solving, decision-making, suggestions and hypotheses and employing them. Controlling, directing

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Interpretation des Gedichts ,,Sachliche Romanze,, von Erich Kästner
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Die Forschung besteht aus zwei Kapiteln: das erste Kapitel geht es nur um die Form des Gedichts, aber das zweite Kapitel geht es um die Analyse des Gedichts, und das ist das Wesen der Arbeit, gleichzeitig enthält das zweite Kapitel auch zwei wichtige Disziplinen.

Die erste Disziplin handelt es sich um die Struktur des Gedichts, nämlich die lyrische Seite; Reim,Rhythmus,Strophe,und Versmaße, aber die zweite Disziplin handelt es sich um den Inhalt, erklärt hier sowohl das Wesen als auch das Ziel des Gedichts, denn das Gedicht besteht aus vier Strophen, die miteinander zu sehr nicht getrennt sind.

Der Dichter beschreibt in erster Strophe die Beziehung zwischen einem Paar, das genau acht Jahre zusammen gelebt hat. Die bei

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Analysis of third intermediate chemistry book following sustainable development standards
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The current research seeks to Analyze third intermediate chemistry book following sustainable development standards for academic year (2016-2017). To do this, a list of sustainable development standards that should be included in chemistry book was designed based on the previous studies. The first version of the list consisted of (50) sub-case divided into three standards (social, economic, and environmental) which was exposed to group of experts in teaching chemistry and teaching methods. The list has modified to (43) sub-case. The researcher followed the implicit and explicit meaning in his analysis: one for recording and repetition and the other for frequency. The result showed that third intermediate chemistry book has achieved (20)

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 02 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
The Argumentative Elements Of Discours In The Plague For Albert Camus: Les éléments argumentatifs dans le discours de La Peste d’Albert Camus
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Argumentation is not a contemporary, yet a deep rooted intellectual phenomenon dates back to Romans and Greeks times. The argumentative elements ,the author is trying to convey to the reader, are  linguistic procedures aim at persuading and being persuaded of what is true. The present study traces, through Camus’ novel The plague, the best method to construct argumentative techniques used to express the author’s deep philosophies.

Résumé        

          L’argumentation n’est pas un phénomène intellectuel nouveau, ses origines reviennent aux savants grecs et romains. Elle est une act

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 15 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Decisive Answers: A Pragmatic Linguistic Study
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The current research is concerned with studying the decisive answers which are considered quick and conclusive. These answers can effectively interrupt the opponent's argument and close the dialogue.This research is concentrated on deliberative methodology focusing on the decisive answer's activity and ending them through several completing and argument sides. This research consists of an introduction and three parts, the current introduction is focused the light on the concept of decisive answers and its uses in literature and the scarce of speech, and how to consider it with one dialogue description,that dialogue constitute by ? The first part is concerned with those answers through the deliberative methodology and classifying decisive

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2018
Journal Name
Alustath Journal For Human And Social Sciences
Critical Discourse Analysis of Donald Trump's Inaugural Speech
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       Political speeches are represented in different shapes as political forum, events or as inaugural speech. This research critically analyzes the inaugural Speech of the President Donald Trump which was delivered on 20th ,January, 2017 from the site<www.cnn.com> retrieved on 10th ,May,2017. The objectives of the study are: First: classifying and discussing well known micro structures (linguistic feature) of the speech, and second: classifying the macro structures i.e. the delivered political inaugural speech  in which he includes social structures. To reach to the objectives of the study, the researcher will adopt Norman Fairclough’s three dimensional Analytical Model(

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