Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan

This research aim at finding out the impact of using the strategy of shape V on the achievement of the students of the Department of Artistic Education in the subject of "Principles of scientific Research ". This strategy is one of the cognitive strategies used in this topic . To verify the aim of the research ,the two researchers have put the following null hypothesis:-There are no significant differences on the level of 0,05 among the average degrees of the students of the experimental group in their answers on the topics of the pre and post cognitive achievement tests of the subject of "principles of scientific Research " . The two researchers have adopted the experimental approach which consists of one group . the population of the r

The Contemporary Business Environment is Surrounded by many quick and continues variable and changes which has an effect on the economic units. These variables and changes like the high competition which need many tools to help them to continue and achieve The critical success. So to achieve this they have many competitive strategies like cost leadership strategy, differentiation strategy and focus strategy.

Budget is regarded one of main tools to execute objectives polices and programs of the economic units, beside show how the economic units had execute the available economic resources.

Activity based on budgeting is regarded one of the modern technique in the m

The effect of different antibiotics on growth pigment and plasmid curing of Serratia marcescens were studied, S. marcescens was cultured in media containing(16_500)µg/ml of antibiotics, curing mutants unable to produce prodigiosin and lost one plasmid band were obtained of of ampicillin, amoxillin, antibiotics concentrations (64 500) µg/ml metheprim, ultracloxam, azithromycin, cephalexin and erythromycin treated with (350 500) µg/ml of The mutant cells rose- light color and and refampicin revealed S.marcescens inhibited ciprodar and tetracyclin, lincomycin did not lost the plasmid band chlaforan

This paper discusses an optimal path planning algorithm based on an Adaptive Multi-Objective Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm (AMOPSO) for two case studies. First case, single robot wants to reach a goal in the static environment that contain two obstacles and two danger source. The second one, is improving the ability for five robots to reach the shortest way. The proposed algorithm solves the optimization problems for the first case by finding the minimum distance from initial to goal position and also ensuring that the generated path has a maximum distance from the danger zones. And for the second case, finding the shortest path for every robot and without any collision between them with the shortest time. In ord

The study investigated the behaviour of asphalt concrete mixes for aggregate gradations, according to the Iraqi specification using the Bailey method designed by an Excel spreadsheet. In mixing aggregates with varying gradations (coarse and fine aggregate), The Bailey method is a systematic methodology that offers aggregate interlocking as the backbone of the framework and a controlled gradation to complete the blends. Six types of gradation are used according to the bailey method considered in this study. Two-course prepared Asphalt Concrete Wearing and Asphalt Concrete binder, the Nominal Maximum Aggregate Sizes (NMAS) of the mixtures are 19 and 12.5 mm, respectively. The total number of specimens was 240 for both layers (15 samp

Electro-chemical Machining is  significant  process to remove metal with using  anodic dissolution. Electro-chemical machining use to removed metal workpiece from (7025) aluminum alloy using Potassium chloride (KCl) solution .The tool used was made from copper. In this present the optimize processes input parameter use are( current, gap and electrolyte concentration) and surface roughness (Ra) as output .The experiments on electro-chemical machining with use current (30, 50, 70)A, gap (1.00, 1.25, 1.50) mm and electrolyte concentration (100, 200, 300) (g/L).  The method (ANOVA) was used to limited the large influence factors affected on surface roughness and found the current was the large influence f

The present study considers to confirming the applicability of flow with double-sided square lid driven cavity flow by using the lattice Boltzmann equation with moment-based boundary conditions for no slip boundaries.  The boundary conditions are applied over the hydrodynamic moments of the lattice Boltzmann equations locally at each node. The investigation is carried out numerically for both single and multiple relaxation time models. To simulate two-sided lid driven-cavity flow, the top and bottom walls are moving with constant velocity while other walls are stationary. Various Reynolds numbers are used in a range of 100 and up to 5000. The present method shows the effect of the moving boundaries on the two symmetrical cavities t

A new approach for baud time (or baud rate) estimation of a random binary signal is presented. This approach utilizes the spectrum of the signal after nonlinear processing in a way that the estimation error can be reduced by simply increasing the number of the processed samples instead of increasing the sampling rate. The spectrum of the new signal is shown to give an accurate estimate about the baud time when there is no apriory information or any restricting preassumptions. The performance of the estimator for random binary square waves perturbed by white Gaussian noise and ISI is evaluated and compared with that of the conventional estimator of the zero crossing detector.

Electrochemical machining is one of the widely used non-conventional machining processes to machine complex and difficult shapes for electrically conducting materials, such as super alloys, Ti-alloys, alloy steel, tool steel and stainless steel.  Use of optimal ECM process conditions can significantly reduce the ECM operating, tooling, and maintenance cost and can produce components with higher accuracy. This paper studies the effect of process parameters on surface roughness (Ra) and material removal rate (MRR), and the optimization of process conditions in ECM. Experiments were conducted based on Taguchi’s L9 orthogonal array (OA) with three process parameters viz. current, electrolyte concentration, and inter-electrode gap. Sig