The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

The Iraqi political and social arena has been characterized, subjectively and objectively, by the weakness of leadership building. This has led to a leadership crisis, which is reflected in the quality of the outcome of the process of rebuilding the state in Iraq. Thus, this building process has lacked the simplest requirements and conditions of success. It has suffered from a major and obvious failure: the situation in Iraq has raised conflict leaders, not constructive leaders, and this confirms the existence of a cultural crisis in the production of conscious, aware leadership compatible with democratic action. The weakness of leadership in Iraq is reflected in a series of ongoing crises that require radical solutions in accordance with l

It is often needed in demographic research to modern statistical tools are flexible and convenient to keep up with the type of data available in Iraq in terms of the passage of the country far from periods of war and economic sanctions and instability of the security for a period of time . So, This research aims to propose the use of style nonparametric splines as a substitute for some of the compounds of analysis within the model Lee-Carter your appreciation rate for fertility detailed variable response in Iraq than the period (1977 - 2011) , and then predict for the period (2012-2031). This goal was achieved using a style nonparametric decomposition of singular value vehicles using the main deltoid , and then estimate the effect of time-s

This study aims at defining the concept of the fragile state, a term that came into existence in 2014, when the states that had internal Problems and external interventions were referred to as the failure states. However, the indicators for their designation and the criteria adopted are 12 indicators that address all aspects of the State’s duties vis-a-vis its citizens. The study examined the reasons that led to the continuation of Iraq within the fragile states, and the selection of the five years within the time limits of the study due to the factors that led to the decline of Iraq and falling back within the most fragile countries. The study dealt with the fragile state challenges to the media reality as a result of the change of it

The research aims to demonstrate the impact of the acceptable solvency of the National Insurance Company on the investment activity in it, as the research assumes the existence of a statistically significant relationship between the acceptable solvency variable and the investment variable, and the researcher took the National Insurance Company as a place to conduct the research, as it is the first insurance company Watania was established in the fifties of the last century, and it has a long history in the practice of investment activity, and the company’s financial statements for the period from (2010-2019) were relied on, and the annual reports issued by the company as well as records are tools for gathering information, and

One of the main causes for concern is the widespread presence of pharmaceuticals in the environment, which may be harmful to living things. They are often referred to as emerging chemical pollutants in water bodies because they are either still unregulated or undergoing regulation. Pharmaceutical pollution of the environment may have detrimental effects on ecosystem viability, human health, and water quality. In this study, the amount of remaining pharmaceutical compounds in environmental waters was determined using a straightforward review. Pharmaceutical production and consumption have increased due to medical advancements, leading to concerns about their environmental impact and potential harm to living things due to their increa

Abstract:

The current research included " Diagnosis of the reality of the gap for the requirements of Business Continuity Management System According to International Standard (ISO 22301: 2012) in Midland Refineries Company (Daura Refinery) " , for development of an administrative system for Business Continuity is considered a priority in the present day, and in the light of the organizations dependence on computers and information technology in work and communication with others . the international legitimacy (represented by the international organization for standardization (ISO)) remains the basis for matching and commitment , and the importance of the application of Business Continuity Management Syst

Two EM techniques, terrain conductivity and VLF-Radiohm resistivity (using two
different instruments of Geonics EM 34-3 and EMI6R respectively) have been applied to
evaluate their ability in delineation and measuring the depth of shallow subsurface cavities
near Haditha city.
Thirty one survey traverses were achieved to distinguish the subsurface cavities in the
investigated area. Both EM techniques are found to be successfiul tools in study area.

This paper aims to review the intellectual to the most important thought leaders administrative and strategic They both (Henry Fayol and Michelle Porter), who forward a lot of ideas that have helped countries in the advancement and progress their economies , has been drawing literature theoretical common border in Contributions ( Fayol ) philosophical and between applications ( Porter ), which reversed strategies of the three ( the leadership of the cost, differentiation, and focus ), so browse search how to apply and use the principles of Fayol in the implementation of strategies competitiveness of Porter, and stems from a problem ( ( to what extent a reflection of the principles ( Fayol) fourteen strategies (Porter ) competitiv