Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
Abstrct The Turkish political system has undergone exceptional and unprecedented circumstances, represented by a series of security and political unrest that has cast its shadow over the Turkish state and regional and international challenges. It has never been a pretext or pretext for continuing the comprehensive reform process. The constitutional amendments of the 1982 Constitution, Justice and development, whether political, economic or social, is not a reaction to a difficult reality; it is a system of governance and a national option stemming from within. It promotes national unity and enshrines democracy and the concept of public rights and freedoms.
The article describes a certain computation method of -arcs to construct the number of distinct -arcs in for . In this method, a new approach employed to compute the number of -arcs and the number of distinct arcs respectively. This approach is based on choosing the number of inequivalent classes } of -secant distributions that is the number of 4-secant, 3-secant, 2-secant, 1-secant and 0-secant in each process. The maximum size of -arc that has been constructed by this method is . The new method is a new tool to deal with the programming difficulties that sometimes may lead to programming problems represented by the increasing number of arcs. It is essential to reduce the established number of -arcs in each cons
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to determine the extent to which young people watch television sports programs and the impact of viewing on the level of sports culture among young people and the impact of demographic variables on youth over the viewing of sports programs, The study was conducted on a sample of (200) male and female students from the faculties of the University of Baghdad, where a questionnaire form composed of several axes and questions was prepared to measure the effectiveness of sports programs in youth culture, The statistical program used spss to empty data and extract results by frequency, percentages, correlations, The research reached several results, the most important of which is that there is a strong influence of s
... Show MoreThe main aim of this research is to: 1) identify the Transformational Leadership of the Managers of higher School in ALkut district and its relationship with organizational Loyalty. 2) Clarify the relationship between Transformational Leadership and organizational Loyalty. Regarding the research methodology, the researcher used the descriptive method because it meets this research. The two research tools were a questionnaire and the statistical program (spss). The results revealed that there is a strong positive relationship between Transformational Leadership and organizational Loyalty, which means that when the managers have a Transformational Leadership leads to having organizational loyalty.
Women are considered important characters and subjects of discussion in the Glorious Qur’an. Some are portrayed in a positive light while others are condemned . Most women in the Glorious Qur’an are represented as either the mothers or wives of certain leaders and prophets. But the lexical items “Imra’a” امراة and “zawj” زوج occur in the Glorious Qur’an with different meanings depending on the context where they occur.
Translation of the Glorious Qur'an has always been a problematic and difficult issue. Since the Glorious Qur'an is regarded as miraculous and inimitable (i'jaz al-Qur'an), Muslims argue that the Qur'anic text should not be separated from its
... Show MoreABSTRACT
The study aims to identify the level of health services provided in private suites to government hospitals from the perspective of the recipi
... Show MoreThe subject of dumping is considering today one of the subjects in which form an obstruction arise in front of the cycle of growth for some countries , such as the study of dumping is capturing a large attention by the competent because either a big role and effect in growing the economies of nations then the subject of dumping became a field turn around its sides many measures and laws … and may be done resorting to by many states of the world to anti-dumping as approach of determent weapon delimit the impact of dumping and gives the national agriculture sector the opportunity for rising and growing so this section of international economics is capturing a special importance and represent in same time an important
... Show MorePurpose To test the effect of strategic Supremacy on strategic success A case study in Thi Qar Governorate, methodology/approach – this is a mandatory entry.
a case study was used and applied to the Department managers of Government of the province of Thi Qar, Research limitations/implications – It is clear that the strategic Supremacy variable is not being used effectively to achieve strategic success.
Practical implications – use strategic supremacy positively to Support for strategic success. implementing and monitoring ignorance of them in how to use thi
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to shed light on identifying the extent of the university professor's competencies and their roles in managing and training participants in e-training workshops as a pedagogical point view. The research sample consisted of a group of (30) university professors (lecturers) in the training workshops, in scientific,humanitarian and social disciplines, including (12) a university professor (holding a trainer certificate), , the research methodology is descriptive, and the community is a group of trained participants. (115) participated in (40) e-training workshops organized by the Center for Continuing Education at the University of Baghdad (and the selection of workshops within the researcher's specialization in the
... Show MoreAu XIXe siècle, avec l’excès de la passion, le roman français commence à avoir de nouvelles figures. Il tend à être un reflet de la pensée et de la passion. Stendhal et Balzac révèlent ainsi le conflit de l’âme et donnent à leur héros l’impression que tout est permis.
Ces protagonistes doivent, d’une part, subir des fluctuations psychologiques, et d’autre part, ces héros doivent être capables de faire face aux rancunes et aux conflits destructeurs. Les personnages stendhaliens et balzaciens finissent par croire que leur combat ne portera pas ses fruits, parce que toute passion déséquilibrée mènera, soit à la fol
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