Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
This study presents certain modifications done to the conditions set by Searle
(1969: 57) concerning the speech act of promising in order to render them to selected
sayings of Prophet Muhammad (P.B.U.H.) and Jesus Christ (P.B.U.H.) and to
political texts. These modifications make the conditions of the speech act of
promising appropriate for sincere promises made by the Messengers of God since
they deliver their Messages of God but they are unable, as Messengers, to fulfill
God’s promises which they make as part of their Messages and by representatives of
States who deliver speeches on behalf of their Governments. These are the only two
situations where the speakers can make promises and do not fulfill these prom
Showing animal shapes is one of the primary topics since the discovery of cave drawings, with semantic discourses, as they appeared in the ancient civilization of Iraq, with their discourse and intellectual structure, and their reflections on their plastic achievements. The research deals with three topics: the first (an introduction to the concept of discourse), the second: (the historical roots of animal forms), and the third (the manifestation of animal forms and their discourse, in Mesopotamia). Mesopotamian fauna and its concepts? What are the?, Its importance was also represented in: the presence of animals and their semantic and conceptual discourse, especially the sculptures (the lion and the bull), with the aim of revealing the
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Abstract
Due to the momentum of winning in the streets of the city of Baghdad as a result of the large number of checkpoints so felt researcher to conduct a field visit to find out the main reasons that led to this congestion and to find practical solutions to mitigate wastage winning the arrival time citizen to where you want the least possible time.
This research aims to overcome the difficulties experienced by citizens to reach their places of work and reduce waste at the time of service and waiting time as well as reduce the cost of waiting.
Has emerged study a set of conclusions, including the use of model queue (G / G / C) and the mome
... Show MoreAfter completion of the artistic production, the artist plays the echo of this production upon the recipient. Whether this recipient is from the public, art connoisseurs, or private artists, critics and academics. In the past, the boundaries of Time and place had a great effect in limiting this echo or its quality, as the views of the recipients were largely influenced by the prevailing thought or the artistic trends that dominate the artistic scene in the surrounding environment in which the artist created. In order for the artist to show works for the widest segment of the recipient, he bears the burden of the costs of transporting the work, a keeper of damage on the move, and the material amounts that may hinder the publication of the
... Show MoreThe aim of this research is to investigation the optimization of the machining parameters (spindle speed, feed rate, depth of cut, diameter of cutter and number of flutes of cutter) of surface roughness for free-form surface of composite material (Aluminum 6061 reinforced boron carbide) by using HSS uncoated flat end mill cutters which are rare use of the free-form surface. Side milling (profile) is the method used in this study by CNC vertical milling machine. The purpose of using ANFIS to obtain the better prediction of surface roughness values and decreased of the error prediction value and get optimum machining parameters by using Taguchi method for the best surface roughness at spindle speed 4500 r.p.m, 920mm/rev feed rate, 0.6mm de
... Show MoreAbu Firas al- Hamdani is one of the most prominent abbasid poets Who characterized their poetry with high artistic quality especially in his Romyate which blended the quality of feelings of grief, sorrow, longing and nostalgia that makes sensitive self conflict that stems with time from one hand and with place on the other hand. Because we are dealing with a poet lived west spatial coercive which it has been hurt him within a time conflict swinging between despair and some times patience and hope other times between the present and his painful reality also between the past and the beautiful times.
This researcher is to stand on this Romyat by monitoring effectiveness of the poetic text based on conflict between the presenc
The purpose of this study is to assess the level of computer literacy of the students at AlQuds open university in Tulkarm Branch. The study investigates the effects of the variables of gender, specialization, academic level, owning a personal computer, internet communication, and own an email account on the level of computer literacy. A test of computer literacy was constructed by the researchers consisting of (37) multiple choice items with a reliability rate (0.85). The study population consisted of (4100) students, while the sample contained (352) students. The study revealed that the level of computer literacy of the students at AlQuds Open University in Tulkarm Branch was (66.2 %) which is educationally acceptable. It also
... Show MoreThe current research aims to verify the impact of digital leadership as an independent variable, in the effectiveness of crisis management as a response variable through centralizing strategic vigilance in the faculties of the University of Baghdad and its departments, and to investigate the level of interest of its leaders and subordinates in research variables, as well as coming up with recommendations that contribute to strengthening the practices of the three variables. In the university under study, and based on the researcher’s interest to diagnose the influence relationship between the variables, because of their importance in the university’s headquarters and its members on the one hand, and its refl
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The research aims to identify the logical intelligence of distinguished students and to identify the extent of the contribution of the fields of logical intelligence to the sensitivity of students' sensory processing in distinguished schools. The research sample consisted of (400) male and female students selected by the stratified random method with the proportional method. The scale that was prepared according to the theoretical framework and the adopted theory was applied after being subject to the psychometric properties of validity and reliability, Logical thinking (observation, interpretation, mathematical and arithmetic operations) contributed to sensory processing. The results showed that disting
... Show MoreThe Planning and Resource Development Department of the Iraqi Ministry of Health is very interested in improving medical care, health education, and village training programs. Accordingly, and through the available capabilities of the ministry, itdesires to allocate seven health centers to four villages in Baghdad, Iraq therefore the ministry needs to determine the number of health centers allocated to each of these villages which achieves the greatest degree of the overall effectiveness of the seven health centers in a fuzzy environment. The objective of this study is to use a fuzzy dynamic programming(DP) method to determine the optimal allocation of these centers, which allows the greatest overall effectiveness of these health centers
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