Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
Vocational education has great importance to comprehensive national development as it provides intermediate cadres able of operating the factories and laboratories in the farms and fields beside the work in the fields of health, service, administration and commercial. Due to the importance of this type of education in society, it is necessary to do a qualitative reform of vocational education in order to make the educational staffs get the necessary basic expertise to adapt the requirements of the labor market and try to rearrange and organize the workforce through put long-term economic and social policy through certain planning open to the workforce. The workforces structure according to gradual expansion in all the national ec
... Show MoreAnthropogenic activities cause soil pollution with different serious pollutants, such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAHs) compounds. This study assessed the contamination of PAHs in soil samples collected from 30 sites divided into eight groups (residential areas, oil areas, agricultural areas, roads, petrol stations, power plants, public parks and electrical generators) in Basrah city-Iraq during 2019-2020. The soil characteristics including (moisture, pH, EC and TOC) were measured. Results showed the following ranges (soil moisture (0.03-0.18%),pH (6.90-8.16), EC (2.48-104.80) mS/cm and TOC (9.90-20.50%)). Gas Chromatography (GC) was used to measure PAHs in extracted soil samples. The total PAH range (499.96 - 5864.86) ng/g dr
... Show MoreThe insect is diagnosed and named by the National Center of Biotechnology Information (NCBI), USA as the Mint leaf Beetle Chrysolina herbacea alnadawi (Duftschmid, 1825), (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). The diagnosis was performed depending on the DNA analysis by 73% similarity with Chrysolina herbacea (Duftschmid, 1825) sequence, In the present study. It is recorded as a new insect pest on mint plant Mentha puleguim (L,1753) (Lamiaceae). DNA analysis confirmend that it is recorded for the first time in Iraq and the Arab world as well as the Middle East. Those insects were observed initially during August 2017 in residential gardens of Al-Bonooq district in Baghdad / Iraq.
In many scientific fields, Bayesian models are commonly used in recent research. This research presents a new Bayesian model for estimating parameters and forecasting using the Gibbs sampler algorithm. Posterior distributions are generated using the inverse gamma distribution and the multivariate normal distribution as prior distributions. The new method was used to investigate and summaries Bayesian statistics' posterior distribution. The theory and derivation of the posterior distribution are explained in detail in this paper. The proposed approach is applied to three simulation datasets of 100, 300, and 500 sample sizes. Also, the procedure was extended to the real dataset called the rock intensity dataset. The actual dataset is collecte
... Show MoreAllah created the human from clay and made the system of marriage between male
and female as a reason for life continuity and human staying. This system produced an
organization called (the society) which is defined as a group lived in limited time and place.
Islam put fundamental and conditions of the righteous society in the Holy Quran and
prophetic sunna. Islam also put the solutions for problems (if they got) , naturally, these
problems may happened because of the nature of the life.
The problem of the research is summarized by that the problems of the society
enlarged in our Islamic society more than time ago. In the same time , some solution are
imported from west and east and from scientist and ignorant wit
This paper presents an efficient methodology to design modified evaporative air-cooler for winter air-conditioning in Baghdad city as well as using it for summer air-conditioning by adding a heating process after the humidification process. laboratory tests were performed on a direct evaporative cooler (DEC) followed by passing the air on hot water through heat exchanger placed in the coolers air duct exit. The tests were conducted on the 2nd of December /2011 when the ambient temperature was 8.1°C and the relative humidity was (68%). The air flow rate is assumed to vary between 0.069 to 0.209 kg/s with constant water flow rate of 0.03 kg/s in the heat exchanger. The performance is reported in terms of effectiveness of DEC, satura
... Show MoreThe paper aims to measure and analysis the impact Public Spending on Iraq economy (Kaldor Variables).
(variables of the magic square Kaldor) and them in after 2003.
The paper adopted econometric Methods to test the stationarity of the Variables under consideration. For the period (2005-2016) by using multiple regression and estimation the Impulse response function (IRF), by adopting Eviews 10 program.
The results of Impulse response function for the following five-years after the period under consideration reflexes that public expenditure (PEX) was fluctuating between positive and negative in all the variables of the research and this shows the fragility of the performance of fiscal policy in Iraq.
T
... Show MoreThe research aims at a statement Internal Debt options during shocks and the impact of this borrowing in the volume of the foreign reserve, using induction and deduction with available data analysis. During the period (2004-2013) did not require the use of borrowing across (financial institutions, discounted transfers, bonds); it was only sufficient by transfer with commercial banks that can finance of temporary budget deficits: rose and decline of volume of foreign reserve according to the changes of oil prices and the volume of purchases and sales of the Central Bank of Iraq. Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) has significantly contributed to Internal Debt through bond and discounted transfers in the secondary market; thus, funding the
... Show MoreThe Voluntary Obedience has great importance for the modern taxes systems and its management and this is meant the taxpayer whom in charge to pay of his taxes obligations voluntarily , he is very known of himself whereas he prepared his finishing accountings and present them as samples prepared by taxes management and settle the tax sum directly according to specified income , which has an impact to find end to tax evasion as result lead to increase the tax income and achieve the justice for the taxpayer and the state treasury
This study aimed to developing the skills of critical reading for the tenth basic school female students through a training program using the reflective thinking method. The study sample consisted of (64) students. To achieve the objective of the study, the researcher uses the quasi-experiment approach consisting of a control group (32 students) and an experimental group (32 students). The researcher used three research inventories as follows: 1) A list of critical reading skills included (30) skills within three aspects (Recognition – Deduction – Evaluation and Judgment). 2) An executive program using reflective thinking for developing critical reading skills. 3) Achievement test to measure
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