Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
Abstract
Natural gas is characterized by features that made from it a fuel and a raw material for many industries. Deepening its position as a favorite fossil supplier between other types of fossil fuel is the efficiency, diversity of its uses, low costs and compatibility with the environment which leads to increasing of its uses then increased global demand. So, the natural gas must take its place as an important resource in Iraq and participate the oil in the economic development process of building and financing of the general budget.
Iraq is planning to continue of increasing the export capacity of raw oil to meet ambitious production targets emanating from the mai
... Show MoreDue to the intensity of competition between economic units that run the trade in durable goods had to pay a lot of these companies to follow the new selling methods aimed at attracting customers to be able to increase its sales and thereby increase their profits , these methods are installment sales, which had been in great demand by the customers with limited income, who provides them with the possibility of possession and use of such goods and to postpone the full amount of the payment to the seller, This transaction sales have grown even became installment sales system at the present time of the common types of sales transactions and deployed a lot in our environment and in many sectors of the market, and in some cases m
... Show MoreThe textbook is the primary means of creativity and thinking, which has a major role in the development of the readership and mental abilities of the student. It is the basic tool in education in Iraq for the teacher and the student, which cannot be dispensed in any educational program. The current study aimed at the book of the biology of the sixth grade of science in Iraq (comparative study). It was compared to the book of biology for the twelve grade in the Kingdom of Jordan to identify the ratio of similarity and differences between them, in addition, to identify the weaknesses in the Iraq curriculum and developing appropriate solutions and suggestions to address them. The sample was represented with books of biology (six-science cla
... Show MoreObjectives: To determine the level of knowledge regarding drugs addiction among paramedical staff; and to
identify the association between the level of knowledge and their socio-demographic variable.
Methodology: A cross-sectional study was Conducted in Baghdad on Staff for the period from 1st June,
2016 to30th September, 2016 . The sample included 510 Health professionals . There are 9 sectors in center
of Baghdad , 5 of them in Al- Kurkh side of the city and 4 in Al-Russafa side. The sample was selected from
49 primary health care centers and 8 public hospitals through a multi-stage sample using a simple random
sampling technique. The information was collected through the design of a questionnaire whose stability and<
Agricultural loans play an important role in the growth and stimulation of agricultural investment opportunities in Iraq, as well as the sustainability and development of existing agricultural projects. The agricultural sector is characterized by the specific conditions of seasonal production and fluctuations in production conditions, which makes the situation of uncertainty more acute in this sector, the need for any agricultural project for financing is urgent and continuous if it wants to continue production and development at all stages. The study proved the impact of agricultural loans in increasing investment and agricultural production at specific times, However, the fluctuation of funding
... Show MoreAnal fistula is an anorectal condition with over 90% of cases being
cryptoglandular in origin and occurring after anorectal abscesses. The traditional method of
treatment of an anal fistula is by excision or de roofing the tract awaiting complete healing.. Aim:
The aim of this study is to assess the efficacy of diode laser 980 nm in the treatment of low fistula in
ano. Methods: The study was performed between June 2019 to end of September 2019, at the
institute of laser for postgraduate study in Baghdad university. A cohort of ten male patients with a
provisional diagnosis of low type anal fistula were selected for this study and treated by interstitial
photothermal therapy of fistula epithelium by diode laser 980nm
The research, whose goal was to study students' failure in secondary school in Iraq, found that 50% of the Iraqi governorates achieved the lowest student failure rates, and Baghdad governorate had the highest percentage of repeaters. And that half of the provinces in Iraq have males constitute 70% of the repeaters, and failure in the exam represented 79.7% of the reasons for failure, and that half of the students who failed are confined to the first and third intermediate grades at a rate of 51.9% , and the research revealed that the security instability was the most influential factor in Students fai
This study aimed to statement jet stream and its impact in the anti-cyclone affecting the climate of Iraq. Through the use of simple correlation coefficient ( Pearson ) that there is a very strong relationship between high- Siberian and both of the jet stream especially during the winter or over the stations of North . Therefore we, observe the relationship be significant in most of the winter months , spring and autumn . Statistically significant , but are different between station and another station , while the study come to another Anti-ciyclon have a real ,significant and statistically relationship corrclation . But this relationship is less than which found in are much less it with the Siberian high , it depends on the type of stat
... Show MoreThe concealment of data has emerged as an area of deep and wide interest in research that endeavours to conceal data in a covert and stealth manner, to avoid detection through the embedment of the secret data into cover images that appear inconspicuous. These cover images may be in the format of images or videos used for concealment of the messages, yet still retaining the quality visually. Over the past ten years, there have been numerous researches on varying steganographic methods related to images, that emphasised on payload and the quality of the image. Nevertheless, a compromise exists between the two indicators and to mediate a more favourable reconciliation for this duo is a daunting and problematic task. Additionally, the current
... Show MoreIn the current Windows version (Vista), as in all previous versions, creating a user account without setting a password is possible. For a personal PC this might be without too much risk, although it is not recommended, even by Microsoft itself. However, for business computers it is necessary to restrict access to the computers, starting with defining a different password for every user account. For the earlier versions of Windows, a lot of resources can be found giving advice how to construct passwords of user accounts. In some extent they contain remarks concerning the suitability of their solution for Windows Vista. But all these resources are not very precise about what kind of passwords the user must use. To assess the protection of pa
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