Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
In this paper a prey-predator-scavenger food web model is proposed and studied. It is assumed that the model considered the effect of harvesting and all the species are infected by some toxicants released by some other species. The stability analysis of all possible equilibrium points is discussed. The persistence conditions of the system are established. The occurrence of local bifurcation around the equilibrium points is investigated. Numerical simulation is used and the obtained solution curves are drawn to illustrate the results of the model. Finally, the nonexistence of periodic dynamics is discussed analytically as well as numerically.
Abstract
This research deals with Building A probabilistic Linear programming model representing, the operation of production in the Middle Refinery Company (Dura, Semawa, Najaif) Considering the demand of each product (Gasoline, Kerosene,Gas Oil, Fuel Oil ).are random variables ,follows certain probability distribution, which are testing by using Statistical programme (Easy fit), thes distribution are found to be Cauchy distribution ,Erlang distribution ,Pareto distribution ,Normal distribution ,and General Extreme value distribution . &
... Show MoreDust storms are a common ecological occurrence in many world‘s countries, mainly in dry and semi-dry parts. Dust storms tremendously influence human health, the environment, the climate, and numerous social aspects. In this paper, spatial and temporal analysis, metrological triggers, and trajectory, dust exporting areas of a severe dust storm that occurred in Iraq on May 16, 2022, were investigated. The dust storm's backward trajectory was determined using HYSPLIT model, which is then compared with MODIS and Meteosat satellite images. The weather is then analyzed using the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis model, and the approximate area of these sources was determined using Landsat 8 satellite image classification method. The results revealed
... Show MoreThe liver is one of the most prominent glands in the digestive system. It crosses vital organs with multiple functions, including the secretion of enzymes, digestion of fats, and secretion of bile. Through histological studies and those interested in them, the tissue structure of the liver is of interest to researchers, and the four samples of Guinea pig Cavia porcellus were taken in this study to know the histological structure and compare it with rodents in particular. and other animals in general. The results of the liver parenchyma were comparable to those of the studied mammals in periods of hepatocytes, Kupffer cells, and sinusoids surrounding the central vein, blood supply, and bile ducts. He did not record differences, eve
... Show MoreThe liver is one of the most prominent glands in the digestive system. It crosses vital organs with multiple functions, including the secretion of enzymes, digestion of fats, and secretion of bile. Through histological studies and those interested in them, the tissue structure of the liver is of interest to researchers, and the four samples of Guinea pig Cavia porcellus were taken in this study to know the histological structure and compare it with rodents in particular. and other animals in general. The results of the liver parenchyma were comparable to those of the studied mammals in periods of hepatocytes, Kupffer cells, and sinusoids surrounding the central vein, blood supply, and bile ducts. He did not record differences, eve
... Show MoreMultiplesclerosis(MS)isachronic,inflammatory,immune-mediateddiseaseof the central nervous system (CNS). More than 2 million people worldwidehave MS. The goal of the present study was to compare Iraqi patients' treat-ment satisfaction with three different disease-modifying therapies (DMTs),administeredorally,subcutaneously,andbyslowinfusion;namely,fin-golimod, interferon beta-1b (IFNβ-1b), and natalizumab, respectively. Aswell as to assess the individual differences among these therapies about theireffectiveness, convenience and global satisfaction also to assess the role ofcertain predictors on treatment satisfaction. Patient satisfaction with medi-cation assessed by the Treatment Satisfaction Questi
... Show MoreWater injection equipments such as pipelines, which are used in the second recovery of oil in the Al-Ahdeb wells, suffer from the corrosion in water during maintaining vacuum deoxygenated tower that used to decrease concentration of the dissolved oxygen gas in the water from 6.2-9.1 ppm to o.5 ppm. This study involved calculation the corrosion rates of the internal surfaces of the
pipelines either during operation of the vacuum unit or when the tower out of operation. Finally, find the solution by one of the following suggestions. In the first suggestion removal of the dissolved O2 from water is achieved by increasing the dosage of the oxygen scavenger (sodium sulphite). The second suggestion involves removing the dissolved O2 from w