Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
ABSTRACT
The Iraqi Government had used all Possible methods of financing the fiscal deficit according to the economic and Political Circumstances at the time. It had borrowed from abroad during the 1980s. Those methods of borrowing led to negative impacts on the Iraqi economy such as increased external dept burden, higher inflation rate, negative interest rate and accumulation of domestic debt.
The "Financial Management and Public Debt" law no 95/ 2004 made a great change in those methods of Financing fiscal deficit in Iraq. Before 2004, the deficit was financed by issuing Treasury Bills and selling them to the Central Bank of Iraq with a prefixed interest rate. Thus, i
... Show Moreويُعدَّ التعليم الجامعي احد أهم العناصر في تطور المجتمع وسبب مهم في رفع مستوى المجتمع من جميع النواحي الثقافية، والفكرية ، والاجتماعية، والاقتصادية العلمية، ويعدّ التعليم الجامعي من وسائل التنمية والمهارات وبناء وإعداد القدرات المادية والبشرية التي تحتاجها القطاعات كافة، ومواكبة التطور العلمي والتكنولوجي؛ ان الهدف الاساس من التعليم الجامعي هو تخريج...
Abstract
This research aims to define the roles of auditors by clarifying the concept and risks of cyber security in protecting information and financial data in economic units. Najaf, Babylon and Karbala, then the results were analyzed and the results were presented and analyzed to show that adopting cyber security improves the quality of reports Finance through what it achieves in displaying information with credibility and transparency, in a way that suits the needs of users, and cyber security has a role in managing economic resources more effectively to obtain benefits that would have been lost in the event of an
... Show MoreThe introduction of the research on the science of training and the physiology of sports was addressed from important sciences, where the physical effort drew the attention of scientists since the past centuries when they studied how the body performs its functions when performing physical exertion and observe the changes that occur in it and write down and study especially the positive effects of the practice of daily sports The aim of the study was to investigate the effect of plank exercises on the lipid component and the metabolic rate (bmr) of the female students of the Higher Institute for Security and Management Development. As for the third chapter, the two researchers used the experimental method on a sample of the female s
... Show MoreGrey system theory is a multidisciplinary scientific approach, which deals with systems that have partially unknown information (small sample and uncertain information). Grey modeling as an important component of such theory gives successful results with limited amount of data. Grey Models are divided into two types; univariate and multivariate grey models. The univariate grey model with one order derivative equation GM (1,1) is the base stone of the theory, it is considered the time series prediction model but it doesn’t take the relative factors in account. The traditional multivariate grey models GM(1,M) takes those factor in account but it has a complex structure and some defects in " modeling mechanism", "parameter estimation "and "m
... Show MoreThere is no doubt that each of the arts has a material from which the aesthetic achievement is built, so the researcher found that the art of theater, especially the show, whose artistic achievement is based on the body of the actor who emits the formal language (body language), is the focus of interest and active presence, because the body possesses its spiritual qualities that made him and the ability to The formation of things by (his body language), so the researcher studied this theatrical phenomenon and divided it into four chapters. In the first chapter, the research problem included the following question: (Is there a phenomenon of body language in the contemporary theatrical show "Imagine that" as a model) so It is of cognitive
... Show MoreThe current research deals with the argument of delusion and interpretation in the direction structure and its reflected impact in the reception activity and the amount of conceptual displacement it is subjected to in an aesthetic approach to abstract conceptual definitions of the reception activity , by the effect of this dialectic in the direction structure, which can be summed up by the following question: (What are the characteristics of the direction structure of the imaginary and what is the argument of interpretation in the theatre reception activity?) in order to stand on the aesthetic framework and conceptual definition of the direction structure in the controversy of interpretation and imagination, and its impact on the concept
... Show MoreThe main goal of this in vivo study was to evaluate the effect of 532nm Q-switched Nd: YAG Laser in combination with Human Serum Albumin 20% concentration (as a welding aid) on the liver tissue repair clinically, and histologically. The animals used in this study were 21 male rabbits divided into three main groups: control group (3 rabbits), conventionally treated group (9 rabbits) and Laser treated group (9 rabbits). Each two main groups (conventional and laser treated) consist of three sub-groups depending on the response evaluation at three different periods. The Laser group was treated using 532nm Q-switched Nd: YAG laser after adding human serum albumin immediately on the incised liver’s tissue. The energy of was 460mJ, and 4Hz fr
... Show MoreA theoretical calculation of the binding and excitation energies have been used at low – lying energies based on shell model and quantum theory. In this model, we evaluated the energies under assume Ni 28 56 30 as inert core with two nucleon extra, nucleons in the 2P3/2 , 1f 5/2 and 2P1/2 configuration. Modified Surface Delta Interaction (MSDI) and Reid's Potential (RP) theory for two body matrix elements are evaluated by using a Matlab program to calculate the energies of experimental and Reid single particle energies. Our results of the theoretical calculation have been compared with the experimental results, which show no good agreement with the experiment but have a good agreement wit
... Show MoreTransformations of the actor when acting many characters are the product of joint work between the actor and the director through the instructions and the exercises that facilitate the reach for the desired goal.
The method or way has often been used which is Stanislavsky premises in his work with the actor in the role. The first section consists of two parts under the heading of the actor's work with himself. The two parts are preparing the actor in creative suffering (internal), and in coexistence and embodiment (outside). The second section is the book of the actor's work with the role. The current research aims at identifying the mechanism of the acting performance transformations among many characters of the same actor.
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