Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
Abstract
In this research we been estimated the survival function for data suffer from the disturbances and confusion of Iraq Household Socio-Economic Survey: IHSES II 2012 , to data from a five-year age groups follow the distribution of the Generalized Gamma: GG. It had been used two methods for the purposes of estimating and fitting which is the way the Principle of Maximizing Entropy: POME, and method of booting to nonparametric smoothing function for Kernel, to overcome the mathematical problems plaguing integrals contained in this distribution in particular of the integration of the incomplete gamma function, along with the use of traditional way in which is the Maximum Likelihood: ML. Where the comparison on t
... Show MoreThis study aimed to assess orthodontic postgraduate students’ use of social media during the COVID-19 lockdown. Ninety-four postgraduate students (67 master’s students and 27 doctoral students) were enrolled in the study and asked to fill in an online questionnaire by answering questions regarding their use of social media during the COVID-19 lockdown. The frequency distributions and percentages were calculated using SPSS software. The results showed that 99% of the students used social media. The most frequently used type of social media was Facebook, 94%, followed by YouTube, 78%, and Instagram, 65%, while Twitter and Linkedin were used less, and no one used Blogger. About 63% of the students used elements of social media to l
... Show MoreThe interest in Multi social skills and self-concept is extremely important for many of the scholars of education and psychology has taken a great deal in their writings and their interests as they see that social skills training is to make sure of the same, and that whenever enable the individual from acquiring social skills whenever asserted itself.The research aims know social skills and self-concept and their relationship to the children Riyadh age (4-6 years), and the research sample consisted of(200) boys and girls from kindergarten in the city of Baghdad Bjanbey Rusafa second and Karkh second.And to the objectives of the research realized the researcher has built two measures of social skills a
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The world is currently facing a medical crisis. The epidemic has affected millions of people around the world since its appearance. This situation needs an urgent solution. Most countries have used different solutions to stop the spread of the epidemic. The World Health Organization has imposed some rules that people should adhere. The rules are such, wearing masks, quarantining infected people and social distancing. Social distancing is one of the most important solutions that have given good results to confront the emerging virus. Several systems have been developed that use artificial intelligence and deep learning to track social distancing. In this study, a system based on deep learning has been proposed. The system includes monitor
... Show MoreThe problem of the current research addressed the close link between the psychological stress and social isolation as behavior and experience, as well as, the stress of the displaced pupils by the sense of alienation and isolation from the society to which they had moved. It reflects a sense of mystery to the displaced pupils about their lives in the present and future. Therefore, the current research aims to identify the psychological presence and the level of social isolation among secondary school displaced pupils and identify whether there were statistically significant differences in the variables between the displaced pupils (males-females). Moreover, it attempts to identify the relationship between psychological stress and social
... Show MoreUrban expansion and its environmental and safety effects are one of the critical information needed for future development planning, safety considerations and environmental management. This work used two methods to monitor urban expansion and it's environmental and safety effects, the first is based on Google Maps for the years 2002 and 2010, and the second was the usage of spatial videos for the year 2013. Although the usage of satellite images is critical to know and investigate the general situation and the total effects of the expansion on a large piece of area, but the Spatial videos do a very detailed fine scale investigation, site conditions regarding both environmental and safety cannot be easily distinguished fr
... Show MoreWhile traditional energy sources such as oil, coal, and natural gas drive economic growth, they also seriously affect people’s health and the environment. Renewable energies (RE) are presently seen as an efficient choice for attaining long-term sustainability in development. They provide an adequate response to climate change and supply sufficient electricity. The current situation in Iraq results from a decades-long scarcity of reliable electricity, which has impacted various industries, including agriculture. There are diverse prospects for using renewable energy sources to address the present power crisis. The economic and environmental impacts of renewable energy systems were investigated in this study by using the solar pumpi
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