Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
With the development of modern mass media and the prevalence of use continues to both researchers and practitioners their efforts to understand how the media affect Hzha on both the individual and the institutions, society and culture as a whole, which means that the need to develop models and theories explain and predict the effects of the use of such means, therefore, the study of modern technologies of communication and information as an area of research has become mature to establish the intellectual base cohesive, but they are not mature enough, which calls for more research developments therefore become social networking sites online, (Facebook, and YouTube, and straining) known today as the new social media, which is witness
... Show MoreIn this paper, we will provide a proposed method to estimate missing values for the Explanatory variables for Non-Parametric Multiple Regression Model and compare it with the Imputation Arithmetic mean Method, The basis of the idea of this method was based on how to employ the causal relationship between the variables in finding an efficient estimate of the missing value, we rely on the use of the Kernel estimate by Nadaraya – Watson Estimator , and on Least Squared Cross Validation (LSCV) to estimate the Bandwidth, and we use the simulation study to compare between the two methods.
The current research aims to know the measurement of the fifth- secondary stage female students' affliction with the social phobia . The research is confined to General directorate of Education in Baghdad / Al-Karkh/2 / for the academic year 2015-2016 and fifth-secondary stage female students. It has been used descriptive method and exposed theoretical sides and previous studies concerning with the social phobia.The procedures of the research include the application of the social phobia scale on random sample of fifth- secondary stage female students ( both branches scientific and literary). The current study has concluded that the fifth- secondary stage female students have&nbs
... Show MoreTwo quantitative, environment-friendly and easily monitored assays for Ni (II) and Co (III) ions analysis in different lipstick samples collected from 500-Iraqi dinars stores located in Baghdad were introduced. The study was based on the reaction of nickel (II) ions with dimethylglyoxime (DMG) reagent and the reaction of cobalt (III) ions with 1-nitroso-2-naphthol (NN) reagent to produce colored products. The color change was measured by spectrophotometric method at 565 nm and 430 nm for Ni and Co, respectively, with linear calibration graphs in the concentration range 0.25-100 mg L-1 (Ni) and 0.5-100 mg L-1 (Co) and LOD and LOQ of 0.11 mg L-1 and 0.36 mg L-1 (Ni), and 0.15 mg L-1 an
... Show MoreThe aim of this research is to identify how to employ the social imagination and its representations in the paintings of the students of the Department of Art Education. Students of the Department of Art Education in the light of this tool, and the researcher reached a number of results, the most important of which are:
1. The indicator of the social imagination in the excitement of the artist and the recipient, because the representations are embodied in forms within the painting and close to reality.
2. An artistic sample of the representational imagination and the creative imagination was found to be more than the imaginary imagination.
3. Individual symptoms related to the term.
4. The representations of the socia
This study came to discuss the subject of industries dependent on petrochemical industries in Iraq (plastic as a model) during the period 2005–2020, and the study concluded that the plastic industries contribute to areas of advancement and progress and opportunities to deal efficiently with the challenges posed by the new variables, the most important of which is the information revolution. communications and trade liberalization, and this is what contributes to the competitiveness of these industries. And because the petrochemical industry in Iraq has an active role in establishing plastic industrial clusters and clusters of micro, small, and medium industries by providing the necessary feedstock for these industries in various fields
... Show Moreإن موضوع الشرق الأوسط بشكل عام اتخذ أهمية كبيرة في الكتابات والمؤلفات التي صدرت منذ بداية النصف الأول من عقد التسعينات من القرن المنصرم مع بدايات مشاريع السلام التي أعقبت انهيار الاتحاد السوفيتي وتغير الخارطة السياسية والاقتصادية والايديولوجية للعالم .وعلى الرغم ان المصطلح ليس بجديد الا ان تعابير المصطلح وددلالاته تتغير مع تغير موازين القوى واتجاهات المصالح. إذ انتقل من مصطلح جغرافي الى
... Show MoreThe theory of probabilistic programming may be conceived in several different ways. As a method of programming it analyses the implications of probabilistic variations in the parameter space of linear or nonlinear programming model. The generating mechanism of such probabilistic variations in the economic models may be due to incomplete information about changes in demand, production and technology, specification errors about the econometric relations presumed for different economic agents, uncertainty of various sorts and the consequences of imperfect aggregation or disaggregating of economic variables. In this Research we discuss the probabilistic programming problem when the coefficient bi is random variable
... Show MoreThe study seeks to analyze the perceptions of audience in UAE towards the performance of Emirates Satellite TV Channels. It analyzed the exposure motivations of audience to satellite TV channels, its positive and negative aspects and to what extent they abide by media ethics. A survey is conducted with a sample of four hundred. The study shows significant differences between male and female towards the characteristics of TV channels, its positive and negative aspects and its commitments to media ethics.
The study also shows that the expectancy value model and third person effect model are applicable in studying the perceptions of audience and media people in UAE t
... Show MoreMany literary research papers have dealt with the work of Margaret Atwood's The Handmaid's Tale (1985) as a feminist work. However, nearly few studies combine social oppression with religious extremism. To bridge this gap, the present study aims at exploring the use of totalitarian theocracy of terror to oppress its citizens in the name of religion. In other words, it explicates the way religion is used to brutally suppress and exploit people in general and vulnerable women in particular. To meet this objective, the study adopted the qualitative descriptive method to describe how religion is used as a contradictory controlling means in Gilead discourse. It also adopted the Foucault theory in analyzing the data of the study, illu
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