Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
The political movements of Islam are among the most prominent phenomena of the popular uprisings witnessed by the Arab world. However, this rise and the rise of some movements led to many problems on the political theses of Islam, especially those associated with the ideas of Islamic ideologues and their slogan Legitimacy and the authorities as the origin of the divine, and said the application to achieve the Islamic solution, and then became the state in theses of some Islamists a tool to apply the law and then the preservation of religion.
The responsibility of the Central Bank through the implementation of its monetary policy to maintain the integrity and stability of the financial system and the economic system, because any shock, whether internal or external, may endanger the financial system and instability, so the research sheds light on the effectiveness of monetary policy in maintaining financial stability, The most important conclusion is that there is an increase in capital, which gives banks the possibility to face the risks to which they are exposed, as well as a rise in the total bad debts, which weakens its financial position, which constitutes a decline in the financial stability of these banks.
Praise be to God, Lord of the worlds, and prayers and peace be upon our master Muhammad and upon his family and companions.
And after:
The research dealt with an important and critical era in the history of the Seljuk State of the Romans in Asia Minor, as that country, after the assumption of Sultan Ghiath al-Din Kehsaru II in the year 634 AH / 1236 CE, was subjected to the constant Mongol threat, so the research came marked with (the Seljuk State of Rome in Asia Minor and the Mongol invasion 634 - 708 AH / 1236 - 1308 AD) The research showed the succession of the Seljuk Sultans to the rulers whose rule after the death of Sultan Alaeddin Kikbad was weak and subject to the authority of the Mongols
In this numerical study a detailed evaluation of the heat transfer characteristics and flow structure in a laminar and turbulent flow through a rectangular channel containing built-in of different type vortex generator has been a accomplished in a range of Reynolds number between 500 and 100,000.A modified version of ESCEAT code has been used to solve Navier-Stokes and energy equations. The purpose of this paper is to present numerical comparisons in terms of temperature, Nusselt number and flow patterns on several configurations of longitudinal vortex generator including new five cases. The structures of heat and flow were studied, using iso-contours of velocity components, vortices, temperature and Nusselt n
... Show MoreDigital commercial advertising depends on artistic formations to achieve attraction and arousal of attention, which is one of the most important communication factors that the designer seeks to achieve and is considered a key key to recognizing the beauty of the topic and its functional value. Reframe formal vocabulary.
The research included the introduction and includes the research problem and the need for it, which focused on the following question: What is the aesthetic role of artistic formation in the design of commercial advertising?
The aim of the research was: To reveal the aesthetic role of artistic formation in commercial advertising.
It also included the importance of research and research boundaries, as well as def
This research discussed and analyzed the formulation of a strategy to manage tax compliance risks, as an applied research in the General commission for Taxes. The questionnaire was used as a research tool to identify the factors that stimulate or retard the research sample from being compliant. The K-means clustering method was also used to enable the classification of the research sample's views into four behaviors, some of these views pose tax-compliance risks. The research concluded that risk management is a continuous process and that all departments of the General commission for Taxes are responsible for its implementation to enable them to deal with the behavior of the taxpayer towards tax compliance. And it recommended
... Show MoreSince the beginning of the twentieth century, the art of composition has witnessed major transformations that accompanied the transformations that occurred in the cognitive field. The plastic artists rejected the prevailing artistic line, and sought to create a new artistic format that accommodates the new social and cultural problems. So was the announcement of the era of modernity in the late nineteenth century, with the birth of the impressionism movement that gave a place to challenge all that is familiar. . And he drew the attention of the researcher, and for that he chose the research title (Characteristics of Modernity in the Works of Saleh Al-Jumayyi (Analytical Study)) The researcher divided the research as follows:
Methodolo
The problem of research is the need to find out the obstacles and difficulties facing women in accessing leadership positions at the University of Baghdad from their point of view. The importance of research comes from the importance of women in the university and their vital role in the development of society. The research objectives summarized the most important obstacles facing women Access to the leadership positions in the university and the relative weight of these obstacles as well as trying to identify differences in their view of these obstacles according to the variables of specialization (scientific, human) and the scientific title (Professor, Assistant Professor, Teacher, Assistant Lecturer). They were (144) university female
... Show MoreThe research aims to enrich the subject of marketing deception, which is still in the concept stage at the level of the research sample and to allow future researchers to contribute to addressing the concept of marketing deception and linking it with other variables. The research problem is that is there a correlation between marketing deception and organizational reputation in Baghdad assets. What is the reflection of marketing deception on the organizational reputation in the assets of Baghdad? The research is concerned with shedding light on the reputation of the organization in terms of frequency of purchase, place of purchase, brand loyalty, and knowing the impact of marketing deception on these fact
... Show MoreScholars have inherited a tremendous wealth in all sciences and knowledge, especially jurisprudence; therefore, the students of forensic science had to execute this precious heritage, achieving a serious scientific investigation; So I opted for the realization of this part of the Book of Leasing for the small book of fatwas of Yusuf bin Ahmed al-Khasi.