Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
This work addressed the assignment problem (AP) based on fuzzy costs, where the objective, in this study, is to minimize the cost. A triangular, or trapezoidal, fuzzy numbers were assigned for each fuzzy cost. In addition, the assignment models were applied on linguistic variables which were initially converted to quantitative fuzzy data by using the Yager’sorankingi method. The paper results have showed that the quantitative date have a considerable effect when considered in fuzzy-mathematic models.
Estimation of the unknown parameters in 2-D sinusoidal signal model can be considered as important and difficult problem. Due to the difficulty to find estimate of all the parameters of this type of models at the same time, we propose sequential non-liner least squares method and sequential robust M method after their development through the use of sequential approach in the estimate suggested by Prasad et al to estimate unknown frequencies and amplitudes for the 2-D sinusoidal compounds but depending on Downhill Simplex Algorithm in solving non-linear equations for the purpose of obtaining non-linear parameters estimation which represents frequencies and then use of least squares formula to estimate
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The following research is marked by "social intelligence and its role in demonstration the potential abilities for individuals." The discussion dealt with the concepts of contemporary is very important because of their significant role in influencing the work of the Organization, as adopted link between the concepts of social intelligence and the potential role of the first to show the second .The research hypotheses tested in three health institutions in the city of Mosul, the research community is represented (Al-Salam Hospital and General Hospital and the son of ether), while the sample were the leaders of these institutio
... Show MoreThis research aims to predict the value of the maximum daily loss that the fixed-return securities portfolio may suffer in Qatar National Bank - Syria, and for this purpose data were collected for risk factors that affect the value of the portfolio represented by the time structure of interest rates in the United States of America over the extended period Between 2017 and 2018, in addition to data related to the composition of the bonds portfolio of Qatar National Bank of Syria in 2017, And then employing Monte Carlo simulation models to predict the maximum loss that may be exposed to this portfolio in the future. The results of the Monte Carlo simulation showed the possibility of decreasing the value at risk in the future due to the dec
... Show MoreThis paper aims at the analytical level to know the security topics that were used with data journalism, and the expression methods used in the statements of the Security Media Cell, as well as to identify the means of clarification used in data journalism. About the Security Media Cell, and the methods preferred by the public in presenting press releases, especially determining the strength of the respondents' attitude towards the data issued by the Security Media Cell. On the Security Media Cell, while the field study included the distribution of a questionnaire to the public of Baghdad Governorate. The study reached several results, the most important of which is the interest of the security media cell in presenting its data in differ
... Show MoreForecasting has become common process and reality. Since man has found multiple forms of simple predictive predictions, fruitful predictive results have emerged, such as weather forecasting or trading on stock exchange. The research was organized by defining the problem, which was manifested by the question:
(What is the prediction in global logo design methods?)
The aim of the research: (revealing design prediction in the methods of global logos). The theoretical framework was: (the concept of prediction in the design of global logos), (methods of global logos), (types of prediction) and then were attached to indicators, results and conclusions, including:
- The color value of international logos came with human needs: a
Abstract:
In this research we discussed the parameter estimation and variable selection in Tobit quantile regression model in present of multicollinearity problem. We used elastic net technique as an important technique for dealing with both multicollinearity and variable selection. Depending on the data we proposed Bayesian Tobit hierarchical model with four level prior distributions . We assumed both tuning parameter are random variable and estimated them with the other unknown parameter in the model .Simulation study was used for explain the efficiency of the proposed method and then we compared our approach with (Alhamzwi 2014 & standard QR) .The result illustrated that our approach
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This research aims to identify the impact of the Layout Ghazi al-Hariri hospital for surgery specialist on customer satisfaction (patients) using the model (Servicescape), the problem of the research represented in the extent to which the hospital management design of the service and Layout hospital aesthetic and functional aspects that fit patients for therapeutic and nursing services , and used the developer scale by (Miles et al., 2012) for data collection, which includes the independent variable in (17) items distributed in three dimensions (Facility aesthetics , hospital cleanliness, and the Layout accessibility ) The dependent variable is the satisfaction of customers (pat
... Show MoreThis day, we see the Significant role that social media platforms play, it plays a vital role in shaping the Social, political, and economic awareness of individuals. The Iraqi Society, which is experiencing rapid cultural and social transformations, is considered a fertile ground for social media and its influences, whether negative or positive. Research and studies indicate that the negative use of social media will lead to weaking of the sense of belonging and citizenship among members of Iraqi society. This, in turn, threatens moral and educational values, increases feelings of family estrangement, and leads to social isolation. On the contrary, if social is used correctly, it can significantly contribute to enhancing educational values
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